Atletico Madrid
Attack—
Defense risk—
Atletico Madrid
4th · 57 pts · 32 played
WLLLL
3–2Full time
Athletic Club
9th · 41 pts · 32 played
LWLLW
Our take
Atletico Madrid were slight favourites.
Atletico Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (78 vs 57). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Athletic Club. Atletico Madrid had 3.1 days of rest, Athletic Club 4.1 and had to travel 323 km.
Away travel323 kmRest days3.1 · 4.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Atletico Madrid48%
Draw26%
Athletic Club26%
Atletico Madrid59%
Draw23%
Athletic Club18%
Atletico Madrid48%
Draw26%
Athletic Club26%
Atletico Madrid40%
Draw27%
Athletic Club33%
Atletico Madrid49%
Draw25%
Athletic Club27%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Madrid)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJesus Gil Manzano
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.45
- Matches 53
Team strength
Atletico MadridAthletic Club
78
L90 StrengthIn forecast
57
80
Current StrengthIn forecast
51
82
AttackIn forecast
51
87
DefenceIn forecast
64
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAthletic Club
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Atletico MadridAthletic Club
1.66
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.06
1.09
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.41
1.43
xGVia Att/Def
1.30
1.18
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.03
+0.23
Goals minus xGContext
-0.24
88%
Scored inContext
66%
38%
Clean sheetsContext
19%
12.88
ShotsContext
13.44
5.16
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.61
40%
On target shareContext
33%
8.84
Shots in the boxContext
9.17
67%
Box shareContext
66%
13%
ConversionContext
8%
2.54
OffsidesContext
2.26
10.88
Shots allowedContext
9.47
3.65
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.16
2.73
BlocksContext
2.35
2.71
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.93
71%
Save rateContext
68%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
503
PassesContext
408
431
Accurate passesContext
329
86%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.73
11.00
FoulsContext
12.81
9.38
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
2.22
Yellow cardsContext
2.13
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.13
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.37
xGVia Att/Def
1.25
1.74
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.95
+0.63
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
100%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.60
ShotsContext
12.90
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.22
38%
On target shareContext
36%
8.10
Shots in the boxContext
8.60
63%
Box shareContext
67%
16%
ConversionContext
10%
2.13
OffsidesContext
2.71
13.40
Shots allowedContext
9.00
6.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
3.00
BlocksContext
2.13
4.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.56
72%
Save rateContext
62%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
422
PassesContext
400
352
Accurate passesContext
322
83%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.73
12.20
FoulsContext
14.60
8.90
Fouls sufferedContext
8.80
2.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Atletico Madrid
Rest3.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,485 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Athletic Club
Rest4.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel323 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Atletico Madrid |
Athletic Club |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.1La Liga 2025-2026, 22 Apr | 4.1La Liga 2025-2026, 21 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 323 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,485 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.8 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Atletico Madrid
Confirmed XI
13J. Oblak(G)
3M. Ruggeri
15C. Lenglet
18Marc Pubill
14Marcos Llorente
10Álex Baena
6Koke
8Pablo Barrios
20G. Simeone
9A. Sørloth
7A. Griezmann
Athletic Club
Confirmed XI
1Unai Simón(G)
17Yuri
4Aitor Paredes
3Dani Vivian
2Andoni Gorosabel
30Alejandro Rego Mora
16Ruíz de Galarreta
10Nico Williams
20Unai Gómez
9I. Williams
11Gorka Guruzeta
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Atletico Madrid
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Athletic Club
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Atletico Madrid+0.5 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Athletic Club-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Atletico Madrid · Home
2.50points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 13-1-2
- Scored
- 2.19
- Conceded
- 0.88
Athletic Club · Away
0.80points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-9
- Scored
- 0.87
- Conceded
- 1.73
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Atletico Madrid | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| Elche | L 2–3 AD 1–1 H | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Sevilla | L 1–2 AW 3–0 H | L 1–2 AW 3–2 H |
| Barcelona | L 1–2 HL 1–3 A | L 0–1 HL 0–4 A |
| Real Madrid | L 2–3 AW 5–2 H | L 0–3 H |
| Getafe | W 1–0 HW 1–0 A | L 0–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Real Sociedad | W 3–2 HD 1–1 A | D 1–1 HL 2–3 A |
| Oviedo | W 1–0 AW 2–0 H | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Espanyol | W 4–2 HL 1–2 A | L 1–2 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | L 0–3 AW 3–2 H | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Real Betis | L 0–1 HW 2–0 A | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Levante | D 0–0 AW 3–1 H | W 4–2 HW 2–0 A |
| Mallorca | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A | L 2–3 AW 2–1 H |
| Alaves | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| Girona | W 3–0 A | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Valencia | W 2–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Osasuna | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Celta Vigo | D 1–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Villarreal | W 2–0 H | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Points | 57 of 93 · 1.84 per game | 38 of 93 · 1.23 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
5 Atletico Madrid wins1 draws4 Athletic Club wins
Goals per game0.80 – 0.80
Over 2.520%
Both scored20%
Clean sheets50% · 40%
- 6 Dec 2025Athletic Club1–0Atletico Madrid
- 1 Mar 2025Atletico Madrid1–0Athletic Club
- 31 Aug 2024Athletic Club0–1Atletico Madrid
- 27 Apr 2024Atletico Madrid3–1Athletic Club
- 16 Dec 2023Athletic Club2–0Atletico Madrid
- 19 Feb 2023Atletico Madrid1–0Athletic Club
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Atletico Madrid | Athletic Club | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.66 | 1.06 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.09 | 1.41 | |
| Match goals | 2.75 | 2.47 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 72% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 47% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 16% | |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 50% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 38% | 19% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 34% | |
| Games | 32 | 32 |
| Atletico Madrid | Athletic Club | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 2.70 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 60% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Atletico Madrid | Athletic Club | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.28 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.22 | 3.81 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 9.31 | 9.61 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 25/32 | 66% 21/32 | |
| Over 9.5 | 59% 19/32 | 50% 16/32 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 16/32 | 38% 12/32 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.34 | 2.31 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.09 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.43 | 4.31 | 4.53 |
| Over 3.5 | 66% 21/32 | 59% 19/32 | |
| Over 4.5 | 44% 14/32 | 44% 14/32 | |
| Atletico Madrid | Athletic Club | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.30 | 5.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 3.30 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 8.70 | 9.61 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.90 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.90 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 5.80 | 4.10 | 4.53 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jesus Gil Manzano Spain · 53 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.45league 4.27
Red cards0.25league 0.27
Cards 5+53%league 47%
Fouls24.8league 24.5
Penalties0.45league 0.36
Home wins43%league 49%
Atletico Madrid5 with this referee
Record2-0-3
Cards · opp.2.6 · 1.4
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W8 Nov 25H · Levante3–13
- W25 May 25A · Girona4–01
- L21 Apr 24A · Alaves0–23
- L16 Dec 23A · Athletic Club0–21
- L16 Sep 23A · Valencia0–35
Athletic Club5 with this referee
Record2-0-3
Cards · opp.2.0 · 0.8
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds2
- L3 Dec 25H · Real Madrid0–32
- W3 May 24A · Getafe2–03
- W16 Dec 23H · Atletico Madrid2–00
- L30 Sep 23A · Real Sociedad0–32
- L12 Aug 23H · Real Madrid0–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Atletico Madrid32 games · scored 53 · conceded 35
12
5
0-15
6
5
16-30
8
7
31-45
6
3
46-60
9
7
61-75
12
8
76-90
Athletic Club31 games · scored 34 · conceded 43
3
6
0-15
4
2
16-30
9
10
31-45
4
7
46-60
4
7
61-75
10
11
76-90
Atletico Madrid10 games · scored 20 · conceded 19
6
3
0-15
1
4
16-30
6
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
4
3
61-75
1
3
76-90
Athletic Club10 games · scored 13 · conceded 14
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
