Atletico Madrid
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Atletico Madrid
4th · 57 pts · 32 played
WLLLL
3–2Full time
Athletic Club
9th · 41 pts · 32 played
LWLLW
Atletico Madrid48.1%fair odds 2.08
Draw25.6%fair odds 3.91
Athletic Club26.3%fair odds 3.80
Expected goals1.65 – 1.16total 2.81
Likeliest score1–112.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Athletic Club
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Atletico Madrid ↓ · Athletic Club → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 6.4 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.1 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Atletico Madrid goals, columns Athletic Club goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.1%8.25
- 2–19.5%10.53
- 1–09.3%10.78
- 2–08.2%12.26
- 1–26.7%14.91
- 0–06.6%15.14
- 0–16.4%15.70
- 2–25.5%18.08
- 3–15.2%19.14
- 3–04.5%22.28
Winning margin
10.9%
Atletico Madrid by 3+
fair 9.17
14.8%
Atletico Madrid by 2
fair 6.75
22.4%
Atletico Madrid by 1
fair 4.47
25.6%
Draw
fair 3.91
15.6%
Athletic Club by 1
fair 6.41
7.4%
Athletic Club by 2
fair 13.55
3.3%
Athletic Club by 3+
fair 29.92
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
15%5+
Atletico Madrid goals
19%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
9%4+
Athletic Club goals
31%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid win | 48.1% | 48.8% | -0.8 pp |
| Draw | 25.6% | 24.5% | +1.1 pp |
| Athletic Club win | 26.3% | 26.6% | -0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 53.4% | 58.1% | -4.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 56.2% | 59.8% | -3.6 pp |
| Expected goals Atletico Madrid | 1.65 | 1.77 | -0.12 |
| Expected goals Athletic Club | 1.16 | 1.25 | -0.09 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Atletico Madrid win48.1%2.08
- Draw25.6%3.91
- Athletic Club win26.3%3.80
- Double chance Atletico Madrid or draw73.7%1.36
- Double chance Atletico Madrid or Athletic Club74.4%1.34
- Double chance Athletic Club or draw51.9%1.93
- Draw no bet Atletico Madrid64.6%1.55
- Draw no bet Athletic Club35.4%2.83
Goals
- Over 0.593.4%1.07
- Over 1.577.7%1.29
- Over 2.553.4%1.87
- Over 3.531.1%3.21
- Over 4.515.5%6.47
- Under 1.522.3%4.49
- Under 2.546.6%2.15
- Under 3.568.9%1.45
Both teams to score
- Yes56.2%1.78
- No43.8%2.28
- Yes and over 2.544.1%2.27
- Atletico Madrid win and yes23.5%4.26
- Draw and yes19.0%5.27
- Athletic Club win and yes13.7%7.29
Team goals
- Atletico Madrid over 0.580.8%1.24
- Atletico Madrid over 1.549.1%2.04
- Atletico Madrid over 2.523.0%4.35
- Athletic Club over 0.568.8%1.45
- Athletic Club over 1.532.5%3.08
- Athletic Club over 2.511.3%8.86
- Atletico Madrid clean sheet31.2%3.20
- Athletic Club clean sheet19.2%5.21
- Atletico Madrid win to nil24.6%4.06
- Athletic Club win to nil12.6%7.94
Handicap
- Atletico Madrid −1.525.7%3.89
- Atletico Madrid −2.510.9%9.17
- Athletic Club +1.574.3%1.35
- Athletic Club +2.589.1%1.12
- Athletic Club −1.510.7%9.33
- Atletico Madrid +1.589.3%1.12
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored324
Favourite won52.8%
Avg chance given to result41.2%
1X2 Brier0.576
Over 2.5 called right57.7%
BTTS called right57.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 65 | 37.8% | 33.8% |
| 40–50% | 128 | 44.5% | 46.9% |
| 50–60% | 63 | 54.8% | 60.3% |
| 60–70% | 34 | 64.0% | 61.8% |
| 70–80% | 27 | 74.5% | 85.2% |
| 80%+ | 7 | 82.8% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 264 of 324 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5781 | 0.5700 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.1% | 41.8% |
| Favourite won | 53.0% | 54.5% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 264 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 324 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.