Atletico Madrid
Attack—
Defense risk—
Atletico Madrid
4th · 57 pts · 29 played
WWWWL
1–2Full time
Barcelona
1st · 73 pts · 29 played
WWWWW
Our take
Barcelona were slight favourites.
Barcelona were the stronger side on L90 Strength (92 vs 81). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Barcelona. Atletico Madrid had 13 days of rest, Barcelona 13.3 and had to travel 504 km.
Away travel504 kmRest days13 · 13.3Matches / 14d1 · 1
Atletico Madrid24%
Draw22%
Barcelona53%
Atletico Madrid31%
Draw27%
Barcelona43%
Atletico Madrid25%
Draw22%
Barcelona52%
Atletico Madrid18%
Draw20%
Barcelona62%
Atletico Madrid25%
Draw22%
Barcelona53%
Over 2.5 67%
Both score 66%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Madrid)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainMateo Busquets Ferrer
- Cards per match 5.6
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 35
Team strength
Atletico MadridBarcelona
81
L90 StrengthIn forecast
92
80
Current StrengthIn forecast
93
82
AttackIn forecast
97
87
DefenceIn forecast
92
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBarcelona
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Atletico MadridBarcelona
1.69
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.69
0.97
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.97
1.49
xGVia Att/Def
2.46
1.07
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.23
86%
Scored inContext
100%
41%
Clean sheetsContext
41%
13.34
ShotsContext
19.41
5.45
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.00
41%
On target shareContext
36%
9.24
Shots in the boxContext
12.45
69%
Box shareContext
65%
13%
ConversionContext
14%
2.57
OffsidesContext
2.54
10.38
Shots allowedContext
9.07
3.46
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.79
2.52
BlocksContext
2.31
2.54
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.86
71%
Save rateContext
73%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
69%
517
PassesContext
641
444
Accurate passesContext
575
86%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.92
Team ratingContext
7.12
10.83
FoulsContext
9.59
9.45
Fouls sufferedContext
11.62
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.31
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.90
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.83
xGVia Att/Def
2.79
1.53
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.23
+0.67
Goals minus xGContext
+0.11
90%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
14.60
ShotsContext
18.20
5.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.40
38%
On target shareContext
35%
10.00
Shots in the boxContext
12.80
67%
Box shareContext
72%
17%
ConversionContext
16%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.25
12.00
Shots allowedContext
8.80
6.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
2.40
BlocksContext
1.78
4.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
69%
Save rateContext
76%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
67%
507
PassesContext
616
432
Accurate passesContext
551
85%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.95
Team ratingContext
7.17
9.30
FoulsContext
8.60
9.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.30
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Atletico Madrid
Rest13 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Barcelona
Rest13.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel504 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Atletico Madrid |
Barcelona |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13La Liga 2025-2026, 22 Mar | 13.3La Liga 2025-2026, 22 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 504 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Atletico Madrid
Confirmed XI
1J. Musso(G)
23N. González
15C. Lenglet
24R. Le Normand
16N. Molina
11T. Almada
21O. Vargas
6Koke
20G. Simeone
10Álex Baena
7A. Griezmann
Barcelona
Confirmed XI
13Joan García(G)
2João Cancelo
18Gerard Martín
5Pau Cubarsí
4R. Araujo
8Pedri
24Eric García
14M. Rashford
16Fermín López
10Lamine Yamal
20Dani Olmo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Atletico Madrid
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.10 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Barcelona
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Atletico Madrid-0.7 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Barcelona+1.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Atletico Madrid · Home
2.67points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 13-1-1
- Scored
- 2.27
- Conceded
- 0.80
Barcelona · Away
2.00points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 9-1-4
- Scored
- 2.21
- Conceded
- 1.43
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Atletico Madrid | Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | L 2–3 AW 5–2 H | L 1–2 A |
| Getafe | W 1–0 HW 1–0 A | W 3–0 H |
| Real Sociedad | W 3–2 HD 1–1 A | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Oviedo | W 1–0 AW 2–0 H | W 3–0 HW 3–1 A |
| Espanyol | W 4–2 HL 1–2 A | W 2–0 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | L 0–3 AW 3–2 H | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Real Betis | L 0–1 HW 2–0 A | W 5–3 A |
| Levante | D 0–0 AW 3–1 H | W 3–0 HW 3–2 A |
| Mallorca | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A | W 3–0 HW 3–0 A |
| Alaves | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A | W 3–1 H |
| Girona | W 3–0 A | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Valencia | W 2–1 H | W 6–0 H |
| Athletic Club | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 AW 4–0 H |
| Sevilla | W 3–0 H | W 5–2 HL 1–4 A |
| Osasuna | W 1–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Celta Vigo | D 1–1 A | W 4–2 A |
| Villarreal | W 2–0 H | W 4–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Elche | D 1–1 H | W 3–1 AW 3–1 H |
| Points | 57 of 84 · 2.04 per game | 70 of 84 · 2.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
2 Atletico Madrid wins1 draws7 Barcelona wins
Goals per game0.90 – 1.80
Over 2.550%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets20% · 50%
- 2 Dec 2025Barcelona3–1Atletico Madrid
- 16 Mar 2025Atletico Madrid2–4Barcelona
- 21 Dec 2024Barcelona1–2Atletico Madrid
- 17 Mar 2024Atletico Madrid0–3Barcelona
- 3 Dec 2023Barcelona1–0Atletico Madrid
- 23 Apr 2023Barcelona1–0Atletico Madrid
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Atletico Madrid | Barcelona | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.69 | 2.69 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.97 | 0.97 | |
| Match goals | 2.66 | 3.66 | 3.46 |
| Over 1.5 | 72% | 93% | |
| Over 2.5 | 45% | 79% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 24% | 45% | |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 59% | 66% |
| Clean sheets | 41% | 41% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 0% | |
| Games | 29 | 29 |
| Atletico Madrid | Barcelona | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 3.30 | 3.46 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 80% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% | 66% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Atletico Madrid | Barcelona | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.59 | 6.96 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.69 | 4.39 | |
| Match total | 10.28 | 11.35 | 9.51 |
| Over 8.5 | 76% 22/29 | 82% 23/28 | |
| Over 9.5 | 55% 16/29 | 64% 18/28 | |
| Over 10.5 | 48% 14/29 | 57% 16/28 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.07 | 1.38 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.03 | 2.45 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 3.83 | 4.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 62% 18/29 | 45% 13/29 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 11/29 | 34% 10/29 | |
| Atletico Madrid | Barcelona | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.20 | 6.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 4.10 | |
| Match total | 9.40 | 10.70 | 9.51 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 3.20 | 4.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Mateo Busquets Ferrer Spain · 35 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.26league 4.22
Red cards0.37league 0.28
Cards 5+69%league 47%
Fouls24.1league 24.5
Penalties0.29league 0.36
Home wins46%league 49%
Atletico Madrid2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L8 Feb 26H · Real Betis0–13
- L17 Aug 25A · Espanyol1–23
Barcelona3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.2.7 · 2.3
Pens for · against2 · 0
- D31 Aug 25A · Rayo Vallecano1–11
- W30 Mar 24H · Las Palmas1–05
- W12 Nov 23H · Alaves2–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Atletico Madrid29 games · scored 49 · conceded 28
11
4
0-15
6
4
16-30
5
4
31-45
6
3
46-60
9
6
61-75
12
7
76-90
Barcelona29 games · scored 78 · conceded 28
14
5
0-15
8
4
16-30
14
9
31-45
13
1
46-60
14
3
61-75
15
6
76-90
Atletico Madrid10 games · scored 25 · conceded 19
6
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
5
5
46-60
4
2
61-75
5
5
76-90
Barcelona10 games · scored 29 · conceded 9
4
1
0-15
5
2
16-30
5
1
31-45
5
1
46-60
6
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
