Atletico Madrid vs Espanyol – 21 Feb 2026

La Liga Gameweek 25 Sat, Feb 21 · 20:00 Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano, Madrid

Atletico Madrid 4th · 45 pts · 24 played WWDLL

4–2Full time

Espanyol 6th · 35 pts · 24 played LLLLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Atletico Madrid were clear favourites.

Atletico Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (80 vs 49). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Espanyol. Atletico Madrid had 6.2 days of rest, Espanyol 7.3 and had to travel 497 km.

Away travel497 kmRest days6.2 · 7.3Matches / 14d2 · 2

Atletico Madrid62%

Draw22%

Espanyol16%

Expected goals 1.94 – 0.88

Atletico Madrid65%

Draw21%

Espanyol14%

Expected goals 2.07 – 0.86

Atletico Madrid62%

Draw22%

Espanyol16%

Expected goals 1.94 – 0.87

Atletico Madrid54%

Draw25%

Espanyol21%

Expected goals 1.73 – 0.99

Atletico Madrid62%

Draw22%

Espanyol16%

Expected goals 2.06 – 0.96

Over 2.5 54% Both score 51% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Madrid)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainAlejandro Muñiz Ruiz

Cards per match 5.3
Penalties per match 0.47
Matches 36

Team strength

Atletico Madrid

Espanyol

80 L90 StrengthIn forecast 49

80 Current StrengthIn forecast 44

82 AttackIn forecast 36

87 DefenceIn forecast 51

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Atletico Madrid

Attack—

Defense risk—

Espanyol

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Atletico Madrid

Espanyol

1.58 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.21

0.88 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.38

1.45 xGVia Att/Def 1.28

1.03 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.24

+0.13 Goals minus xGContext -0.07

83% Scored inContext 79%

42% Clean sheetsContext 29%

12.75 ShotsContext 12.38

5.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.17

42% On target shareContext 34%

8.88 Shots in the boxContext 8.13

70% Box shareContext 65%

12% ConversionContext 10%

2.65 OffsidesContext 2.13

10.25 Shots allowedContext 11.88

3.17 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.29

2.68 BlocksContext 3.57

2.32 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.23

72% Save rateContext 72%

55% PossessionIn forecast 43%

509 PassesContext 353

438 Accurate passesContext 281

86% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.91 Team ratingContext 6.77

11.25 FoulsContext 13.04

9.63 Fouls sufferedContext 12.63

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.04 Red cardsContext 0.04

This league season, per match · 24 and 24 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

1.35 xGVia Att/Def 0.98

1.08 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.32

-0.05 Goals minus xGContext +0.12

70% Scored inContext 80%

40% Clean sheetsContext 20%

14.50 ShotsContext 11.40

5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.70

35% On target shareContext 33%

10.20 Shots in the boxContext 7.78

72% Box shareContext 67%

9% ConversionContext 10%

3.33 OffsidesContext 2.13

10.40 Shots allowedContext 10.60

4.89 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.10

2.90 BlocksContext 3.33

3.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67

71% Save rateContext 63%

56% PossessionIn forecast 44%

533 PassesContext 348

462 Accurate passesContext 273

87% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.90 Team ratingContext 6.67

11.10 FoulsContext 12.00

7.10 Fouls sufferedContext 14.50

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 2.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Atletico Madrid

Rest6.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Espanyol

Rest7.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel497 km484 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Atletico Madrid	Espanyol
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.2La Liga 2025-2026, 15 Feb	7.3La Liga 2025-2026, 14 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	497 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	484 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	0 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7	7.7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Atletico Madrid Confirmed XI

3-4-3

13J. Oblak(G)

17D. Hancko 18Marc Pubill 14Marcos Llorente

3M. Ruggeri 10Álex Baena 5J. Cardoso 20G. Simeone

22A. Lookman 9A. Sørloth 7A. Griezmann

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Espanyol Confirmed XI

5-4-1

13M. Dmitrović(G)

22Carlos Romero 6L. Cabrera 5F. Calero Villa 38C. Riedel 23O. El Hilali

17Jofre Carreras 10Pol Lozano 4Urko González 24T. Dolan

19Kike García

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Atletico Madrid Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Espanyol Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Atletico Madrid-0.2 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Espanyol+0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Atletico Madrid · Home 2.58points per game · 12 home games

W-D-L: 10-1-1
Scored: 2.17
Conceded: 0.67

Espanyol · Away 1.36points per game · 11 away games

W-D-L: 4-3-4
Scored: 1.18
Conceded: 1.36

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Atletico Madrid	Espanyol
Rayo Vallecano	L 0–3 AW 3–2 H	W 1–0 H
Real Betis	L 0–1 HW 2–0 A	L 1–2 H
Levante	D 0–0 AW 3–1 H	D 1–1 A
Mallorca	W 3–0 HD 1–1 A	W 3–2 H
Alaves	W 1–0 HD 1–1 A	L 1–2 HL 1–2 A
Real Sociedad	D 1–1 A	D 2–2 A
Girona	W 3–0 A	L 0–2 HD 0–0 A
Valencia	W 2–1 H	L 2–3 AD 2–2 H
Athletic Club	L 0–1 A	W 2–1 A
Barcelona	L 1–3 A	L 0–2 H
Oviedo	W 2–0 H	W 2–0 A
Getafe	W 1–0 A	W 1–0 A
Sevilla	W 3–0 H	W 2–1 H
Osasuna	W 1–0 H	W 1–0 H
Celta Vigo	D 1–1 A	D 2–2 HW 1–0 A
Real Madrid	W 5–2 H	L 0–2 A
Villarreal	W 2–0 H	L 1–4 AL 0–2 H
Elche	D 1–1 H	W 1–0 H
Points	45 of 69 · 1.96 per game	32 of 69 · 1.39 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

2 Atletico Madrid wins4 draws1 Espanyol wins

Goals per game1.43 – 1.29 Over 2.557% Both scored86% Clean sheets14% · 14%

17 Aug 2025Espanyol2–1Atletico Madrid
29 Mar 2025Espanyol1–1Atletico Madrid
28 Aug 2024Atletico Madrid0–0Espanyol
24 May 2023Espanyol3–3Atletico Madrid
6 Nov 2022Atletico Madrid1–1Espanyol
17 Apr 2022Atletico Madrid2–1Espanyol

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Atletico Madrid	Espanyol	Forecast
Scored per game	1.58	1.21
Conceded per game	0.88	1.38
Match goals	2.46	2.58	2.82
Over 1.5	75%	75%
Over 2.5	42%	50%	54%
Over 3.5	17%	25%
Both teams scored	46%	54%	51%
Clean sheets	42%	29%
Failed to score	17%	21%
Games	24	24

	Atletico Madrid	Espanyol	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	1.10
Conceded per game	1.00	1.70
Match goals	2.10	2.80	2.82
Over 1.5	60%	80%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	54%
Over 3.5	10%	30%
Both teams scored	30%	60%	51%
Clean sheets	40%	20%
Failed to score	40%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Atletico Madrid	Espanyol	League
Corners
Corners won	6.88	4.42
Corners conceded	3.67	4.42
Match total	10.55	8.84	9.52
Over 8.5	79% 19/24	46% 11/24
Over 9.5	58% 14/24	38% 9/24
Over 10.5	54% 13/24	33% 8/24
Cards
Cards	2.08	2.08
Opponent cards	2.04	2.38
Match total	4.12	4.46	4.45
Over 3.5	63% 15/24	63% 15/24
Over 4.5	38% 9/24	54% 13/24

	Atletico Madrid	Espanyol	League
Corners
Corners won	7.00	4.80
Corners conceded	3.80	4.10
Match total	10.80	8.90	9.52
Over 8.5	90% 9/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	80% 8/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	70% 7/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.10	2.40
Opponent cards	1.70	2.60
Match total	3.80	5.00	4.45
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Alejandro Muñiz Ruiz Spain · 36 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.92league 4.19

Red cards0.36league 0.27

Cards 5+61%league 46%

Fouls24.9league 24.6

Penalties0.47league 0.38

Home wins56%league 47%

Atletico Madrid2 with this referee

Record1-0-1 Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.5 Pens for · against0 · 0

L6 Dec 25A · Athletic Club0–12
W29 Oct 23H · Alaves2–13

Espanyol1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

W24 May 25H · Las Palmas2–03

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.