Atletico Madrid vs Malaga – 19 Aug 2026

La Liga Gameweek 1 Wed, Aug 19 · 20:00 Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano, Madrid

Atletico Madrid

2–0Full time

Malaga

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Atletico Madrid were slight favourites.

Atletico Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (77 vs 49). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Malaga. Atletico Madrid had 87 days of rest, Malaga ? and had to travel 416 km. Weather to note: warm.

Away travel416 kmRest days87 · ?Matches / 14d0 · 0

Atletico Madrid58%

Draw22%

Malaga20%

Expected goals 1.97 – 1.08

Atletico Madrid63%

Draw21%

Malaga16%

Expected goals 1.99 – 0.90

Atletico Madrid58%

Draw22%

Malaga20%

Expected goals 1.97 – 1.08

Atletico Madrid50%

Draw24%

Malaga26%

Expected goals 1.76 – 1.21

Atletico Madrid58%

Draw22%

Malaga20%

Expected goals 1.96 – 1.07

Over 2.5 59% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Madrid)

31°CClear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 13 km/h
Humidity 30%

Warm

Referee · SpainAdrian Cordero Vega

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.32
Matches 22

Team strength

Atletico Madrid

Malaga

77 L90 StrengthIn forecast 49

81 Current StrengthIn forecast 41

82 AttackIn forecast 28

87 DefenceIn forecast 31

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Atletico Madrid

Attack—

Defense risk—

Malaga

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Atletico Madrid

Malaga

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.55 xGVia Att/Def —

1.58 xG allowedVia Att/Def —

-0.25 Goals minus xGContext —

80% Scored inContext 90%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

12.40 ShotsContext 14.90

3.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.10

32% On target shareContext 41%

8.67 Shots in the boxContext 10.89

66% Box shareContext 71%

11% ConversionContext 13%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.75

13.50 Shots allowedContext 11.60

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30

3.50 BlocksContext 2.40

4.13 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.11

75% Save rateContext 68%

45% PossessionIn forecast 54%

424 PassesContext 480

355 Accurate passesContext 410

84% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.86 Team ratingContext 7.04

10.50 FoulsContext 10.30

9.50 Fouls sufferedContext 12.50

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Atletico Madrid

Rest87 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Malaga

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel416 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Atletico Madrid	Malaga
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	87La Liga 2025-2026, 24 May	—
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	416 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	3.8	5

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Atletico Madrid Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

13J. Oblak(G)

30Dani Martínez 17D. Hancko 24R. Le Normand 27J. Dominguez

6Koke

16Arnau Ortiz 8Pablo Barrios 4Rodrigo Mendoza 12Carlos Martín

11A. Lookman

Malaga Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

1Alfonso Herrero(G)

31Rafita 4Einar Galilea 15Ángel Recio 3Puga

23Izan Merino

11Joaquín Muñoz 22Dani Lorenzo 8Carlos Dotor 10David Larrubia

9Chupe

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Atletico Madrid Absences are shown before kick-off

Malaga Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Atletico Madrid+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Malaga+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Atletico Madrid · Home No home games yet this season.

Malaga · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Atletico Madrid	Malaga	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	3.05
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	59%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	57%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Atletico Madrid	Malaga	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	—
Conceded per game	1.90	—
Match goals	3.40	—	3.05
Over 1.5	80%	—
Over 2.5	70%	—	59%
Over 3.5	40%	—
Both teams scored	70%	—	57%
Clean sheets	20%	—
Failed to score	10%	—
Games	10	0

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Atletico Madrid	Malaga	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	8.75
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	6.75
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Atletico Madrid	Malaga	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	4.80
Corners conceded	5.33	3.60
Match total	10.33	8.40	8.75
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.80
Opponent cards	1.50	2.70
Match total	3.50	4.50	6.75
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Adrian Cordero Vega Spain · 22 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.00league 5.60

Red cards0.14league 0.40

Cards 5+45%league 60%

Fouls23.8league 29.2

Penalties0.32league 0.60

Home wins77%league 60%

Atletico Madrid2 with this referee

Record2-0-0 Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W7 Mar 26H · Real Sociedad3–21
W18 May 25H · Real Betis4–11

Malaga

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.