Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United – 13 Oct 2026

UEFA Champions League Matchday 2 Tue, Oct 13 · 20:00 Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano, Madrid

Atletico Madrid 26th · 0 pts · 1 played L

2–0Full time

Manchester United 5th · 3 pts · 1 played W

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Atletico Madrid were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Atletico Madrid. Manchester United were without L. Shaw and K. Mainoo. Atletico Madrid had 3.2 days of rest, Manchester United 3.1 and had to travel 1,457 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel1,457 kmRest days3.2 · 3.1Matches / 14d1 · 1

Atletico Madrid50%

Draw22%

Manchester United28%

Expected goals 1.89 – 1.38

Atletico Madrid44%

Draw26%

Manchester United31%

Expected goals 1.49 – 1.20

Atletico Madrid48%

Draw23%

Manchester United29%

Expected goals 1.82 – 1.39

Atletico Madrid41%

Draw23%

Manchester United35%

Expected goals 1.69 – 1.54

Atletico Madrid49%

Draw23%

Manchester United28%

Expected goals 1.83 – 1.34

Over 2.5 63% Both score 63% Likeliest score 1–1

Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Madrid)

24°CClear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 4 km/h
Humidity 44%

RefereeGlenn Nyberg

Cards per match 3.2
Penalties per match 0.23
Matches 47

Team strength

Atletico Madrid

Manchester United

80 L90 StrengthIn forecast 80

80 Current StrengthIn forecast 77

82 AttackIn forecast 72

87 DefenceIn forecast 80

92 Form indexContext 51

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Atletico Madrid

Attack−13%

Defense risk+25%

Manchester United

Attack−5%

Defense risk+11%

Both teams face a less favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

Atletico Madrid

Manchester United

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

1.62 xGVia Att/Def 1.93

1.23 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.37

+0.38 Goals minus xGContext -0.03

90% Scored inContext 70%

30% Clean sheetsContext 30%

15.70 ShotsContext 19.60

6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.80

38% On target shareContext 30%

9.40 Shots in the boxContext 12.00

61% Box shareContext 60%

13% ConversionContext 10%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.40

10.40 Shots allowedContext 11.50

3.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

3.20 BlocksContext 3.80

2.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.89

62% Save rateContext 72%

58% PossessionIn forecast 55%

569 PassesContext 529

499 Accurate passesContext 461

88% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.94 Team ratingContext 7.03

12.20 FoulsContext 10.50

10.80 Fouls sufferedContext 10.50

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Atletico Madrid LWWWW

Rest3.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km568 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

Form 92 · 12 pts vs 5.2 for an average club · +5.2 vs expected

W10 OctA · Alaves2–11.6 xPts
W20 SepH · Real Madrid2–11.1 xPts
W16 SepH · Osasuna4–01.9 xPts
W13 SepA · Real Sociedad3–01.4 xPts
L9 SepA · Liverpool1–20.8 xPts

Manchester United DWLDD

Rest3.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel1,457 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

Form 51 · 6 pts vs 5.9 for an average club · -3.0 vs expected

D10 OctH · Tottenham1–12.1 xPts
D20 SepA · Fulham1–11.6 xPts
L13 SepH · Manchester City0–11.3 xPts
W10 SepH · Sabah FA4–02.6 xPts
D6 SepA · Everton2–21.5 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Atletico Madrid	Manchester United
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 8	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.2La Liga 2026-2027, 10 Oct	3.1Premier League 2026-2027, 10 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,457 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	568 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	1 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	3.7	4.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Atletico Madrid Confirmed XI

4-4-2

13J. Oblak(G)

22Álex Grimaldo 17D. Hancko 21C. Romero 14Marcos Llorente

10Álex Baena 5J. Cardoso 8Pablo Barrios 20G. Simeone

19J. Alvarez 7K. Lee

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Manchester United Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1S. Lammens(G)

26A. Heaven 6L. Martínez 15L. Yoro 2Diogo Dalot

20C. Baleba 17Andrey Santos

9M. Rashford 18Y. Tielemans 8Bruno Fernandes

19B. Mbeumo

+9 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Atletico Madrid Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals

Attack line −2.7% · Defence line −1.7% of weighted minutes

MID O. Vargas Rotation 6.95 Att −1.5% Def −1.0%
MID Rodrigo Mendoza Rotation 6.55 Att −1.2% Def −0.7%

Manchester United Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.08 goals

Attack line −15.4% · Defence line −26.0% of weighted minutes

DEF L. Shaw Starter 6.75 Def −13.9%
MID K. Mainoo Starter 6.98 Att −8.3% Def −4.8%
ATT B. Šeško Rotation 6.82 Att −5.8%
DEF P. Dorgu Rotation 6.88 Def −3.0%
DEF N. Mazraoui Rotation 6.77 Def −2.4%
MID M. Ugarte Rotation 6.69 Att −1.4% Def −0.8%

+1 more with impact, 2 without recent minutes (no impact): T. Heaton, K. Darlow

Total impact vs full squads

Atletico Madrid+2.0 pp
Draw-0.5 pp
Manchester United-1.5 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Atletico Madrid · Home No home games yet this season.

Manchester United · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

1 Atletico Madrid wins1 draws0 Manchester United wins

Goals per game1.00 – 0.50 Over 2.50% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 0%

15 Mar 2022Manchester United0–1Atletico Madrid
23 Feb 2022Atletico Madrid1–1Manchester United

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Atletico Madrid	Manchester United	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	4.00
Conceded per game	2.00	0.00
Match goals	3.00	4.00	3.27
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	100%	63%
Over 3.5	0%	100%
Both teams scored	100%	0%	63%
Clean sheets	0%	100%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

	Atletico Madrid	Manchester United	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	1.90
Conceded per game	1.50	1.10
Match goals	3.50	3.00	3.27
Over 1.5	100%	80%
Over 2.5	90%	50%	63%
Over 3.5	40%	40%
Both teams scored	60%	50%	63%
Clean sheets	30%	30%
Failed to score	10%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Atletico Madrid	Manchester United	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	7.00
Corners conceded	7.00	2.00
Match total	12.00	9.00	9.10
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	1.00	1.00
Opponent cards	1.00	1.00
Match total	2.00	2.00	3.75
Over 3.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1

	Atletico Madrid	Manchester United	League
Corners
Corners won	5.13	6.78
Corners conceded	4.13	4.11
Match total	9.26	10.89	9.10
Over 8.5	50% 4/8	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	50% 4/8	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	50% 4/8	56% 5/9
Cards
Cards	1.80	1.70
Opponent cards	1.60	2.00
Match total	3.40	3.70	3.75
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Glenn Nyberg 47 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.11league 3.60

Red cards0.11league 0.15

Cards 5+26%league 35%

Fouls22.1league 23.2

Penalties0.23league 0.15

Home wins43%league 60%

Atletico Madrid1 with this referee

Record0-1-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

D18 Feb 26A · Club Brugge KV3–32

Manchester United2 with this referee

Record0-1-1 Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 1

D10 Apr 25A · Lyon2–24
L20 Sep 23A · Bayern München3–41

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.