Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna – 18 Oct 2025

La Liga Gameweek 9 Sat, Oct 18 · 20:00 Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano, Madrid

Atletico Madrid 6th · 13 pts · 8 played WDWWD

1–0Full time

Osasuna 12th · 10 pts · 8 played WLDLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Atletico Madrid were clear favourites.

Atletico Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (83 vs 57). Atletico Madrid had 13 days of rest, Osasuna 15 and had to travel 317 km.

Away travel317 kmRest days13 · 15Matches / 14d1 · 0

Atletico Madrid63%

Draw23%

Osasuna15%

Expected goals 1.91 – 0.82

Atletico Madrid63%

Draw22%

Osasuna15%

Expected goals 2.01 – 0.89

Atletico Madrid62%

Draw23%

Osasuna15%

Expected goals 1.89 – 0.82

Atletico Madrid55%

Draw25%

Osasuna20%

Expected goals 1.70 – 0.92

Atletico Madrid64%

Draw21%

Osasuna15%

Expected goals 2.04 – 0.89

Over 2.5 51% Both score 48% Likeliest score 1–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Madrid)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainRicardo De Burgos Bengoetxea

Cards per match 3.7
Penalties per match 0.24
Matches 33

Team strength

Atletico Madrid

Osasuna

83 L90 StrengthIn forecast 57

80 Current StrengthIn forecast 46

82 AttackIn forecast 50

87 DefenceIn forecast 50

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Atletico Madrid

Attack—

Defense risk—

Osasuna

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Atletico Madrid

Osasuna

1.88 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.88

1.25 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.52 xGVia Att/Def 1.05

0.94 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.07

+0.36 Goals minus xGContext -0.17

100% Scored inContext 63%

13% Clean sheetsContext 25%

12.25 ShotsContext 8.75

5.25 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.14

43% On target shareContext 31%

8.38 Shots in the boxContext 7.17

67% Box shareContext 70%

15% ConversionContext 10%

1.57 OffsidesContext 1.80

8.63 Shots allowedContext 13.38

2.75 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50

2.00 BlocksContext 3.75

1.71 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50

60% Save rateContext 78%

55% PossessionIn forecast 44%

528 PassesContext 385

459 Accurate passesContext 306

87% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.83 Team ratingContext 6.90

11.25 FoulsContext 12.25

11.25 Fouls sufferedContext 10.50

2.38 Yellow cardsContext 1.75

0.13 Red cardsContext 0.13

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

2.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

1.70 xGVia Att/Def 1.13

1.02 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.10

+0.50 Goals minus xGContext -0.13

100% Scored inContext 70%

10% Clean sheetsContext 30%

12.50 ShotsContext 10.50

5.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.33

46% On target shareContext 29%

8.60 Shots in the boxContext 8.75

67% Box shareContext 72%

18% ConversionContext 10%

1.67 OffsidesContext 1.71

9.50 Shots allowedContext 13.70

3.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.70

2.63 BlocksContext 3.89

1.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.80

57% Save rateContext 81%

53% PossessionIn forecast 45%

522 PassesContext 381

455 Accurate passesContext 304

87% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.87 Team ratingContext 6.95

11.00 FoulsContext 11.50

10.30 Fouls sufferedContext 10.40

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Atletico Madrid

Rest13 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km930 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Osasuna

Rest15 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel317 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Atletico Madrid	Osasuna
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	13La Liga 2025-2026, 5 Oct	15La Liga 2025-2026, 3 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	317 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	930 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 4	0 / 0 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	9	7.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Atletico Madrid Confirmed XI

5-3-2

13J. Oblak(G)

23N. González 17D. Hancko 2J. Giménez 24R. Le Normand 14Marcos Llorente

10Álex Baena 6Koke 8Pablo Barrios

19J. Alvarez 7A. Griezmann

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Osasuna Confirmed XI

3-4-3

1Sergio Herrera(G)

5Jorge Herrando 24Catena 22F. Boyomo

23Abel Bretones 7Moncayola 6Lucas Torró 19V. Rosier

21Víctor Muñoz 17A. Budimir 14Rubén García

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Atletico Madrid Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Osasuna Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Atletico Madrid+0.5 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Osasuna-0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Atletico Madrid · Home 2.50points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 3-1-0
Scored: 2.75
Conceded: 1.25

Osasuna · Away 0.00points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-4
Scored: 0.25
Conceded: 1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

Opponent	Atletico Madrid	Osasuna
Real Madrid	W 5–2 H	L 0–1 A
Rayo Vallecano	W 3–2 H	W 2–0 H
Villarreal	W 2–0 H	L 1–2 A
Elche	D 1–1 H	D 1–1 H
Espanyol	L 1–2 A	L 0–1 A
Points	10 of 15 · 2.00 per game	4 of 15 · 0.80 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

8 Atletico Madrid wins0 draws2 Osasuna wins

Goals per game1.70 – 0.80 Over 2.550% Both scored30% Clean sheets60% · 10%

15 May 2025Osasuna2–0Atletico Madrid
12 Jan 2025Atletico Madrid1–0Osasuna
19 May 2024Atletico Madrid1–4Osasuna
28 Sep 2023Osasuna0–2Atletico Madrid
21 May 2023Atletico Madrid3–0Osasuna
29 Jan 2023Osasuna0–1Atletico Madrid

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Atletico Madrid	Osasuna	Forecast
Scored per game	1.88	0.88
Conceded per game	1.25	1.00
Match goals	3.13	1.88	2.73
Over 1.5	100%	63%
Over 2.5	38%	25%	51%
Over 3.5	25%	0%
Both teams scored	88%	38%	48%
Clean sheets	13%	25%
Failed to score	0%	38%
Games	8	8

	Atletico Madrid	Osasuna	Forecast
Scored per game	1.88	0.88
Conceded per game	1.25	1.00
Match goals	3.13	1.88	2.73
Over 1.5	100%	63%
Over 2.5	38%	25%	51%
Over 3.5	25%	0%
Both teams scored	88%	38%	48%
Clean sheets	13%	25%
Failed to score	0%	38%
Games	8	8

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Atletico Madrid	Osasuna	League
Corners
Corners won	6.38	2.83
Corners conceded	3.00	4.33
Match total	9.38	7.16	9.89
Over 8.5	75% 6/8	33% 2/6
Over 9.5	38% 3/8	17% 1/6
Over 10.5	38% 3/8	0% 0/6
Cards
Cards	2.63	2.00
Opponent cards	2.63	2.00
Match total	5.26	4.00	4.29
Over 3.5	88% 7/8	75% 6/8
Over 4.5	63% 5/8	63% 5/8

	Atletico Madrid	Osasuna	League
Corners
Corners won	6.20	4.25
Corners conceded	3.30	4.63
Match total	9.50	8.88	9.89
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	50% 4/8
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	38% 3/8
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	25% 2/8
Cards
Cards	2.50	1.90
Opponent cards	2.30	1.90
Match total	4.80	3.80	4.29
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea Spain · 33 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.48league 4.04

Red cards0.24league 0.27

Cards 5+30%league 44%

Fouls21.9league 24.6

Penalties0.24league 0.31

Home wins48%league 48%

Atletico Madrid4 with this referee

Record3-1-0 Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

W13 Apr 24H · Girona3–13
W28 Jan 24H · Valencia2–02
W10 Dec 23H · Almeria2–11
D20 Aug 23A · Real Betis0–01

Osasuna1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.0.0 · 0.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L26 Nov 23A · Villarreal1–30

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.