Atletico Madrid
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Atletico Madrid were clear favourites.
Atletico Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (86 vs 27). Atletico Madrid had 6.1 days of rest, Oviedo 6.3 and had to travel 372 km.
Away travel372 kmRest days6.1 · 6.3Matches / 14d1 · 1
Atletico Madrid82%
Draw13%
Oviedo5%
Atletico Madrid82%
Draw12%
Oviedo5%
Atletico Madrid81%
Draw13%
Oviedo5%
Atletico Madrid76%
Draw16%
Oviedo8%
Atletico Madrid83%
Draw12%
Oviedo5%
Over 2.5 65%
Both score 42%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Madrid)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainVictor Garcia Verdura
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 30
Team strength
Atletico Madrid
Oviedo
86
L90 StrengthIn forecast
27
80
Current StrengthIn forecast
29
82
AttackIn forecast
23
87
DefenceIn forecast
39
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisOviedo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Atletico MadridOviedo
1.92
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.54
0.85
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.54
1.73
xGVia Att/Def
0.69
0.90
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.80
+0.19
Goals minus xGContext
-0.15
100%
Scored inContext
31%
38%
Clean sheetsContext
23%
13.62
ShotsContext
7.77
5.85
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.69
43%
On target shareContext
35%
9.23
Shots in the boxContext
4.75
67%
Box shareContext
57%
14%
ConversionContext
7%
2.45
OffsidesContext
2.50
9.15
Shots allowedContext
16.38
2.69
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.46
2.27
BlocksContext
4.15
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.15
73%
Save rateContext
80%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
513
PassesContext
375
443
Accurate passesContext
310
86%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.80
11.38
FoulsContext
11.77
10.62
Fouls sufferedContext
12.08
2.15
Yellow cardsContext
1.92
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.08
2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.60
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.80
xGVia Att/Def
0.71
1.08
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.74
+0.30
Goals minus xGContext
-0.11
90%
Scored inContext
30%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.80
ShotsContext
8.30
5.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.70
41%
On target shareContext
33%
9.40
Shots in the boxContext
5.33
68%
Box shareContext
59%
15%
ConversionContext
7%
3.17
OffsidesContext
2.78
11.50
Shots allowedContext
14.50
3.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.90
2.90
BlocksContext
3.70
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.50
74%
Save rateContext
76%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
494
PassesContext
377
428
Accurate passesContext
311
87%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.78
11.00
FoulsContext
13.00
9.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.20
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Atletico Madrid
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km25 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Oviedo
Rest6.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel372 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Atletico Madrid |
Oviedo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1La Liga 2025-2026, 23 Nov | 6.3La Liga 2025-2026, 23 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 372 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 25 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Atletico Madrid
Confirmed XI
13J. Oblak(G)
23N. González
17D. Hancko
15C. Lenglet
18Marc Pubill
16N. Molina
10Álex Baena
6Koke
4C. Gallagher
9A. Sørloth
7A. Griezmann
Oviedo
Confirmed XI
13Aarón Escandell(G)
3Abdel Rahim
16David Carmo
4David Costas
22Nacho Vidal
20L. Dendoncker
10H. Hassan
8Santi Cazorla
11S. Colombatto
23S. Rondón
9Federico Viñas
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Atletico Madrid
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Oviedo
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Atletico Madrid+0.6 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Oviedo-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Atletico Madrid · Home
2.71points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-1-0
- Scored
- 2.57
- Conceded
- 0.86
Oviedo · Away
0.67points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-4
- Scored
- 0.83
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 8 this season
| Opponent | Atletico Madrid | Oviedo |
|---|---|---|
| Getafe | W 1–0 A | L 0–2 A |
| Levante | W 3–1 H | L 0–2 H |
| Osasuna | W 1–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| Real Madrid | W 5–2 H | L 0–3 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | W 3–2 H | D 0–0 H |
| Villarreal | W 2–0 H | L 0–2 A |
| Elche | D 1–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Espanyol | L 1–2 A | L 0–2 H |
| Points | 19 of 24 · 2.38 per game | 2 of 24 · 0.25 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Atletico Madrid | Oviedo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.92 | 0.54 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.85 | 1.54 | |
| Match goals | 2.77 | 2.08 | 3.33 |
| Over 1.5 | 85% | 62% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 31% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 23% | 15% | |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 23% | 42% |
| Clean sheets | 38% | 23% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 69% | |
| Games | 13 | 13 |
| Atletico Madrid | Oviedo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.20 | 0.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.70 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.10 | 3.33 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 30% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% | 42% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 70% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Atletico Madrid | Oviedo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.38 | 3.31 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.08 | 6.31 | |
| Match total | 10.46 | 9.62 | 9.73 |
| Over 8.5 | 69% 9/13 | 62% 8/13 | |
| Over 9.5 | 46% 6/13 | 62% 8/13 | |
| Over 10.5 | 46% 6/13 | 31% 4/13 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.31 | 2.23 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.46 | 1.46 | |
| Match total | 4.77 | 3.69 | 4.31 |
| Over 3.5 | 77% 10/13 | 54% 7/13 | |
| Over 4.5 | 46% 6/13 | 31% 4/13 | |
| Atletico Madrid | Oviedo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.10 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.40 | 5.30 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 9.30 | 9.73 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.80 | 4.31 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Victor Garcia Verdura Spain · 30 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.80league 4.07
Red cards0.20league 0.27
Cards 5+40%league 46%
Fouls25.6league 24.6
Penalties0.27league 0.34
Home wins37%league 48%
Atletico Madrid2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D30 Aug 25A · Alaves1–13
- L19 Apr 25A · Las Palmas0–11
OviedoNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Atletico Madrid13 games · scored 25 · conceded 11
8
2
0-15
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
46-60
4
2
61-75
8
3
76-90
Oviedo12 games · scored 7 · conceded 20
2
0-15
3
16-30
3
4
31-45
1
1
46-60
4
61-75
3
6
76-90
Atletico Madrid10 games · scored 21 · conceded 9
5
0-15
1
16-30
4
31-45
3
46-60
5
4
61-75
7
1
76-90
Oviedo9 games · scored 6 · conceded 15
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
4
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
