Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal – 23 Aug 2026

La Liga Gameweek 2 Sun, Aug 23 · 16:00 Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano, Madrid

Atletico Madrid 4th · 3 pts · 1 played W

2–2Full time

Villarreal 7th · 1 pts · 1 played D

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Atletico Madrid were slight favourites.

Atletico Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (78 vs 69). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Villarreal. Atletico Madrid had 3.8 days of rest, Villarreal 7 and had to travel 311 km. Weather to note: heat stress.

Away travel311 kmRest days3.8 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1

Atletico Madrid50%

Draw24%

Villarreal26%

Expected goals 1.65 – 1.12

Atletico Madrid51%

Draw24%

Villarreal25%

Expected goals 1.66 – 1.08

Atletico Madrid50%

Draw24%

Villarreal26%

Expected goals 1.66 – 1.12

Atletico Madrid42%

Draw26%

Villarreal32%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.26

Atletico Madrid50%

Draw24%

Villarreal26%

Expected goals 1.66 – 1.13

Over 2.5 52% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Madrid)

33°COvercast

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 13 km/h
Humidity 25%

Heat stress

Referee · SpainAlejandro Hernandez

Cards per match 5.3
Penalties per match 0.30
Matches 140

Team strength

Atletico Madrid

Villarreal

78 L90 StrengthIn forecast 69

81 Current StrengthIn forecast 65

82 AttackIn forecast 76

87 DefenceIn forecast 73

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Atletico Madrid

Attack—

Defense risk—

Villarreal

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Atletico Madrid

Villarreal

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.47 xGVia Att/Def 1.31

1.39 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.27

-0.07 Goals minus xGContext +0.69

80% Scored inContext 80%

30% Clean sheetsContext 0%

12.40 ShotsContext 10.90

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.89

32% On target shareContext 40%

8.67 Shots in the boxContext 7.30

66% Box shareContext 66%

11% ConversionContext 18%

2.11 OffsidesContext 2.00

12.70 Shots allowedContext 13.20

4.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30

3.40 BlocksContext 4.67

3.38 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.30

73% Save rateContext 77%

48% PossessionIn forecast 49%

448 PassesContext 454

380 Accurate passesContext 389

85% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.88 Team ratingContext 6.94

10.80 FoulsContext 10.20

9.80 Fouls sufferedContext 11.50

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Atletico Madrid W

Rest3.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 62 · 3 pts vs 1.6 for an average club · +1.0 vs expected

W19 AugH · Malaga2–02.0 xPts

Villarreal D

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel311 km997 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 48 · 1 pts vs 1.2 for an average club · -0.5 vs expected

D16 AugA · Racing Santander2–21.5 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Atletico Madrid	Villarreal
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.8La Liga 2026-2027, 19 Aug	7La Liga 2026-2027, 16 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	311 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	997 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 1	1 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	6.2	5.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Atletico Madrid Confirmed XI

4-4-2

13J. Oblak(G)

22Álex Grimaldo 17D. Hancko 24R. Le Normand 18Marc Pubill

4Rodrigo Mendoza 23M. Hjulmand 6Koke 20G. Simeone

7K. Lee 11A. Lookman

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Villarreal Confirmed XI

4-4-2

1Luíz Júnior(G)

20Carlos Romero 12Renato Veiga 8J. Foyth 15S. Mouriño

10Alberto Moleiro 18P. Gueye 14Santi Comesaña 19N. Pépé

9G. Mikautadze 22Ayoze Pérez

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Atletico Madrid Absences are shown before kick-off

Villarreal Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Atletico Madrid-0.2 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Villarreal+0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Atletico Madrid · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 0.00

Villarreal · Away 1.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings

3 Atletico Madrid wins5 draws2 Villarreal wins

Goals per game1.70 – 1.80 Over 2.570% Both scored80% Clean sheets10% · 10%

24 May 2026Villarreal5–1Atletico Madrid
13 Sep 2025Atletico Madrid2–0Villarreal
25 Jan 2025Atletico Madrid1–1Villarreal
19 Aug 2024Villarreal2–2Atletico Madrid
1 Apr 2024Villarreal1–2Atletico Madrid
12 Nov 2023Atletico Madrid3–1Villarreal

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Atletico Madrid	Villarreal	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	2.00
Conceded per game	0.00	2.00
Match goals	2.00	4.00	2.78
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	100%	52%
Over 3.5	0%	100%
Both teams scored	0%	100%	55%
Clean sheets	100%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

	Atletico Madrid	Villarreal	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	2.00
Conceded per game	1.60	1.40
Match goals	3.10	3.40	2.78
Over 1.5	80%	90%
Over 2.5	60%	60%	52%
Over 3.5	30%	40%
Both teams scored	60%	80%	55%
Clean sheets	30%	0%
Failed to score	10%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Atletico Madrid	Villarreal	League
Corners
Corners won	6.00	10.00
Corners conceded	1.00	6.00
Match total	7.00	16.00	9.22
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Cards
Cards	2.00	4.00
Opponent cards	3.00	2.00
Match total	5.00	6.00	6.00
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1

	Atletico Madrid	Villarreal	League
Corners
Corners won	5.44	6.00
Corners conceded	5.00	5.78
Match total	10.44	11.78	9.22
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	100% 9/9
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	67% 6/9
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	56% 5/9
Cards
Cards	2.20	1.80
Opponent cards	1.60	1.90
Match total	3.80	3.70	6.00
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Alejandro Hernandez Spain · 140 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.03league 5.45

Red cards0.25league 0.27

Cards 5+58%league 73%

Fouls24.9league 28.1

Penalties0.30league 0.27

Home wins43%league 45%

Atletico Madrid9 with this referee

Record5-2-2 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.6 Pens for · against1 · 0

W1 Nov 25H · Sevilla3–00
W24 Sep 25H · Rayo Vallecano3–23
W31 Aug 24A · Athletic Club1–01
L3 Jan 24A · Girona3–41
W10 Sep 22H · Celta Vigo4–12

Villarreal14 with this referee

Record4-7-3 Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.6 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds2

W2 May 26H · Levante5–12
W8 Nov 25A · Espanyol2–02
D18 Oct 25H · Real Betis2–21
D18 Dec 24H · Rayo Vallecano1–15
D19 May 24H · Real Madrid4–42

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.