Atletico Madrid
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Atletico Madrid49.2%fair odds 2.03
Draw25.6%fair odds 3.90
Villarreal25.2%fair odds 3.97
Expected goals1.65 – 1.12total 2.78
Likeliest score1–112.2%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Villarreal
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Atletico Madrid ↓ · Villarreal → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.2 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Atletico Madrid goals, columns Villarreal goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.2%8.22
- 1–09.7%10.32
- 2–19.6%10.46
- 2–08.5%11.74
- 0–06.8%14.61
- 1–26.5%15.42
- 0–16.4%15.68
- 2–25.4%18.65
- 3–15.3%18.98
- 3–04.7%21.29
Winning margin
11.3%
Atletico Madrid by 3+
fair 8.87
15.2%
Atletico Madrid by 2
fair 6.59
22.7%
Atletico Madrid by 1
fair 4.40
25.6%
Draw
fair 3.90
15.2%
Villarreal by 1
fair 6.58
7.0%
Villarreal by 2
fair 14.32
3.0%
Villarreal by 3+
fair 33.03
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
15%5+
Atletico Madrid goals
19%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
9%4+
Villarreal goals
33%0
37%1
20%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid win | 49.2% | 49.0% | +0.1 pp |
| Draw | 25.6% | 25.6% | +0.1 pp |
| Villarreal win | 25.2% | 25.4% | -0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 52.5% | 52.9% | -0.4 pp |
| Both teams score | 55.1% | 55.5% | -0.4 pp |
| Expected goals Atletico Madrid | 1.65 | 1.66 | -0.01 |
| Expected goals Villarreal | 1.12 | 1.13 | -0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Atletico Madrid win49.2%2.03
- Draw25.6%3.90
- Villarreal win25.2%3.97
- Double chance Atletico Madrid or draw74.8%1.34
- Double chance Atletico Madrid or Villarreal74.4%1.34
- Double chance Villarreal or draw50.8%1.97
- Draw no bet Atletico Madrid66.1%1.51
- Draw no bet Villarreal33.9%2.95
Goals
- Over 0.593.2%1.07
- Over 1.577.1%1.30
- Over 2.552.5%1.91
- Over 3.530.3%3.30
- Over 4.514.9%6.73
- Under 1.522.9%4.36
- Under 2.547.5%2.10
- Under 3.569.7%1.43
Both teams to score
- Yes55.1%1.81
- No44.9%2.23
- Yes and over 2.543.0%2.33
- Atletico Madrid win and yes23.4%4.27
- Draw and yes18.8%5.33
- Villarreal win and yes12.9%7.73
Team goals
- Atletico Madrid over 0.580.9%1.24
- Atletico Madrid over 1.549.2%2.03
- Atletico Madrid over 2.523.1%4.34
- Villarreal over 0.567.4%1.48
- Villarreal over 1.530.9%3.24
- Villarreal over 2.510.4%9.61
- Atletico Madrid clean sheet32.6%3.07
- Villarreal clean sheet19.1%5.23
- Atletico Madrid win to nil25.7%3.89
- Villarreal win to nil12.3%8.14
Handicap
- Atletico Madrid −1.526.5%3.78
- Atletico Madrid −2.511.3%8.87
- Villarreal +1.573.5%1.36
- Villarreal +2.588.7%1.13
- Villarreal −1.510.0%9.99
- Atletico Madrid +1.590.0%1.11
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored11
Favourite won45.5%
Avg chance given to result38.1%
1X2 Brier0.607
Over 2.5 called right36.4%
BTTS called right63.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 2 | 38.5% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 6 | 44.3% | 16.7% |
| 50–60% | 3 | 57.4% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 11 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 11 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.