Auxerre vs Nice – 10 May 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 33 Sun, May 10 · 20:00 Stade de l’Abbé Deschamps, Auxerre

Auxerre 16th · 28 pts · 32 played DDDLW

2–1Full time

Nice 15th · 31 pts · 32 played LDDDD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Auxerre were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Auxerre had 7.2 days of rest, Nice 8 and had to travel 538 km.

Away travel538 kmRest days7.2 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1

Auxerre41%

Draw28%

Nice31%

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.18

Auxerre42%

Draw27%

Nice31%

Expected goals 1.46 – 1.23

Auxerre41%

Draw28%

Nice31%

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.16

Auxerre34%

Draw28%

Nice38%

Expected goals 1.24 – 1.32

Auxerre41%

Draw27%

Nice31%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.23

Over 2.5 47% Both score 53% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Auxerre)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceFrançois Letexier

Cards per match 4.3
Penalties per match 0.35
Matches 127

Team strength

Auxerre

Nice

26 L90 StrengthIn forecast 29

30 Current StrengthIn forecast 27

39 AttackIn forecast 26

25 DefenceIn forecast 35

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Auxerre

Attack—

Defense risk—

Nice

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Auxerre

Nice

0.94 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.13

1.34 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.81

1.00 xGVia Att/Def 1.15

1.30 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.66

-0.06 Goals minus xGContext -0.02

50% Scored inContext 69%

25% Clean sheetsContext 16%

10.44 ShotsContext 10.31

3.69 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.75

32% On target shareContext 36%

6.79 Shots in the boxContext 6.61

62% Box shareContext 62%

9% ConversionContext 11%

2.05 OffsidesContext 2.11

11.41 Shots allowedContext 14.41

4.41 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.19

3.00 BlocksContext 3.81

3.16 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.52

72% Save rateContext 65%

44% PossessionIn forecast 46%

367 PassesContext 405

296 Accurate passesContext 336

81% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.81 Team ratingContext 6.75

13.16 FoulsContext 12.16

13.69 Fouls sufferedContext 11.25

1.94 Yellow cardsContext 2.03

0.13 Red cardsContext 0.06

This league season, per match · 32 and 32 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

0.98 xGVia Att/Def 1.21

1.31 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.70

+0.32 Goals minus xGContext -0.31

60% Scored inContext 60%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

10.60 ShotsContext 8.30

4.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.90

37% On target shareContext 35%

7.56 Shots in the boxContext 5.60

65% Box shareContext 65%

12% ConversionContext 11%

1.63 OffsidesContext 2.67

12.00 Shots allowedContext 13.80

4.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.56

3.10 BlocksContext 2.80

2.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.22

67% Save rateContext 58%

44% PossessionIn forecast 42%

352 PassesContext 372

281 Accurate passesContext 302

80% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.91 Team ratingContext 6.66

13.40 FoulsContext 11.60

13.20 Fouls sufferedContext 8.70

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Auxerre

Rest7.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Nice

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel538 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Auxerre	Nice
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 3 May	8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 2 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	538 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Auxerre Confirmed XI

4-3-3

16D. Léon(G)

14G. Mensah 24B. Okoh 20S. Diomandé 27L. Sy

5K. Danois 42E. Owusu 8N. Ahamada

19D. Namaso 9S. Mara 10L. Sinayoko

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Nice Confirmed XI

5-4-1

80Y. Diouf(G)

26M. Bard 37Kojo Peprah Oppong 28A. Bah 33A. Mendy 92J. Clauss

10S. Diop 6H. Boudaoui 99S. Abdul Samed 8M. Sanson

25M. Cho

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Auxerre Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Nice Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Auxerre-0.4 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Nice+0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Auxerre · Home 1.19points per game · 16 home games

W-D-L: 5-4-7
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.00

Nice · Away 0.75points per game · 16 away games

W-D-L: 3-3-10
Scored: 1.06
Conceded: 1.94

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Auxerre	Nice
Angers	W 3–1 HL 0–2 A	W 2–0 AL 0–1 H
Lyon	L 2–3 AD 0–0 H	L 0–2 AW 3–2 H
Monaco	D 2–2 AL 1–2 H	D 0–0 HD 2–2 A
Nantes	D 0–0 HL 0–1 A	W 4–1 AW 1–0 H
LE Havre	D 1–1 AL 0–1 H	D 1–1 HL 1–3 A
Stade Brestois 29	W 3–0 HL 0–2 A	D 2–2 HL 1–4 A
Marseille	L 0–1 AL 0–1 H	D 1–1 AL 1–5 H
Strasbourg	D 0–0 HL 0–3 A	L 1–3 AD 1–1 H
Lorient	D 2–2 AW 1–0 H	D 3–3 HL 1–3 A
Rennes	L 0–3 HD 2–2 A	L 0–4 HW 2–1 A
Metz	W 3–1 AW 3–1 H	L 1–2 A
Paris FC	D 0–0 HD 1–1 A	L 0–1 AD 1–1 H
Toulouse	D 0–0 AW 1–0 H	L 1–5 AL 0–1 H
Paris Saint Germain	L 0–1 HL 0–2 A	L 0–4 HL 0–1 A
Lens	L 0–1 AL 1–2 H	D 1–1 HL 0–2 A
Lille	L 3–4 H	D 0–0 AW 2–0 H
Points	28 of 93 · 0.90 per game	28 of 93 · 0.90 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

1 Auxerre wins3 draws1 Nice wins

Goals per game1.20 – 1.40 Over 2.540% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

23 Aug 2025Nice3–1Auxerre
14 Mar 2025Nice1–1Auxerre
18 Aug 2024Auxerre2–1Nice
3 Mar 2023Nice1–1Auxerre
16 Oct 2022Auxerre1–1Nice

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Auxerre	Nice	Forecast
Scored per game	0.94	1.13
Conceded per game	1.34	1.81
Match goals	2.28	2.94	2.57
Over 1.5	59%	78%
Over 2.5	44%	50%	47%
Over 3.5	28%	44%
Both teams scored	41%	59%	53%
Clean sheets	25%	16%
Failed to score	50%	31%
Games	32	32

	Auxerre	Nice	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	0.90
Conceded per game	1.30	1.80
Match goals	2.60	2.70	2.57
Over 1.5	70%	80%
Over 2.5	60%	40%	47%
Over 3.5	40%	40%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	53%
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Failed to score	40%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Auxerre	Nice	League
Corners
Corners won	4.47	4.77
Corners conceded	4.59	5.58
Match total	9.06	10.35	9.31
Over 8.5	56% 18/32	71% 22/31
Over 9.5	34% 11/32	65% 20/31
Over 10.5	25% 8/32	48% 15/31
Cards
Cards	2.16	2.13
Opponent cards	2.72	2.03
Match total	4.88	4.16	3.95
Over 3.5	78% 25/32	59% 19/32
Over 4.5	47% 15/32	38% 12/32

	Auxerre	Nice	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	4.60
Corners conceded	5.10	5.20
Match total	9.10	9.80	9.31
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.80	1.80
Opponent cards	2.80	2.30
Match total	4.60	4.10	3.95
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · François Letexier France · 127 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.02league 3.68

Red cards0.26league 0.27

Cards 5+45%league 36%

Fouls22.1league 23.6

Penalties0.35league 0.37

Home wins51%league 47%

Auxerre4 with this referee

Record1-2-1 Cards · opp.2.5 · 3.5 Pens for · against0 · 1

D8 Feb 26H · Paris FC0–01
D29 Nov 25A · Paris FC1–11
L4 Oct 25H · Lens1–24
W24 Nov 24H · Angers1–04

Nice11 with this referee

Record3-4-4 Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.4 Pens for · against2 · 1

W14 Mar 26A · Angers2–03
L1 Nov 25A · Paris Saint Germain0–11
L17 Jan 25A · Lille1–23
W7 Dec 24H · LE Havre2–13
D28 Sep 24A · Lens0–02

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.