Auxerre
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Auxerre32.4%fair odds 3.09
Draw27.4%fair odds 3.65
Rennes40.2%fair odds 2.49
Expected goals1.23 – 1.40total 2.64
Likeliest score1–113.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Rennes
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Auxerre ↓ · Rennes → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 9.4 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 13.1 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.6 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Auxerre goals, columns Rennes goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.1%7.66
- 0–19.4%10.65
- 1–28.7%11.51
- 1–08.2%12.22
- 0–07.8%12.78
- 2–17.6%13.08
- 0–27.0%14.20
- 2–05.5%18.34
- 2–25.4%18.66
- 1–34.1%24.63
Winning margin
4.6%
Auxerre by 3+
fair 21.53
9.4%
Auxerre by 2
fair 10.68
18.4%
Auxerre by 1
fair 5.44
27.4%
Draw
fair 3.65
21.0%
Rennes by 1
fair 4.77
12.1%
Rennes by 2
fair 8.27
7.1%
Rennes by 3+
fair 13.99
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
18%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
13%5+
Auxerre goals
29%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
4%4+
Rennes goals
25%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Auxerre win | 32.4% | 32.9% | -0.6 pp |
| Draw | 27.4% | 27.1% | +0.3 pp |
| Rennes win | 40.2% | 40.0% | +0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 49.0% | 50.3% | -1.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 54.1% | 55.1% | -1.0 pp |
| Expected goals Auxerre | 1.23 | 1.27 | -0.03 |
| Expected goals Rennes | 1.40 | 1.42 | -0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Auxerre win32.4%3.09
- Draw27.4%3.65
- Rennes win40.2%2.49
- Double chance Auxerre or draw59.8%1.67
- Double chance Auxerre or Rennes72.6%1.38
- Double chance Rennes or draw67.6%1.48
- Draw no bet Auxerre44.6%2.24
- Draw no bet Rennes55.4%1.81
Goals
- Over 0.592.2%1.08
- Over 1.574.6%1.34
- Over 2.549.0%2.04
- Over 3.527.2%3.68
- Over 4.512.8%7.84
- Under 1.525.4%3.94
- Under 2.551.0%1.96
- Under 3.572.8%1.37
Both teams to score
- Yes54.1%1.85
- No45.9%2.18
- Yes and over 2.541.0%2.44
- Auxerre win and yes15.6%6.41
- Draw and yes19.6%5.11
- Rennes win and yes18.9%5.28
Team goals
- Auxerre over 0.570.9%1.41
- Auxerre over 1.534.9%2.86
- Auxerre over 2.512.8%7.82
- Rennes over 0.575.4%1.33
- Rennes over 1.540.9%2.45
- Rennes over 2.516.7%5.99
- Auxerre clean sheet24.6%4.06
- Rennes clean sheet29.1%3.43
- Auxerre win to nil16.8%5.96
- Rennes win to nil21.3%4.69
Handicap
- Auxerre −1.514.0%7.14
- Auxerre −2.54.6%21.53
- Rennes +1.586.0%1.16
- Rennes +2.595.4%1.05
- Rennes −1.519.2%5.20
- Auxerre +1.580.8%1.24
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Ligue 1 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored202
Favourite won55.0%
Avg chance given to result42.6%
1X2 Brier0.570
Over 2.5 called right53.5%
BTTS called right52.5%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 31 | 37.9% | 45.2% |
| 40–50% | 59 | 45.0% | 47.5% |
| 50–60% | 53 | 54.3% | 49.1% |
| 60–70% | 33 | 64.4% | 69.7% |
| 70–80% | 18 | 74.5% | 72.2% |
| 80%+ | 8 | 87.4% | 87.5% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 174 of 202 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5922 | 0.5842 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.6% | 41.3% |
| Favourite won | 51.1% | 52.9% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 174 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 202 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.