Auxerre
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Rennes were the stronger side on L90 Strength (44 vs 24). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Auxerre. Auxerre had 6.9 days of rest, Rennes 8.8 and had to travel 392 km.
Away travel392 kmRest days6.9 · 8.8Matches / 14d2 · 1
Auxerre32%
Draw27%
Rennes40%
Auxerre31%
Draw27%
Rennes43%
Auxerre32%
Draw28%
Rennes40%
Auxerre26%
Draw26%
Rennes48%
Auxerre33%
Draw27%
Rennes40%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Auxerre)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceGael Angoula
- Cards per match 3.2
- Penalties per match 0.37
- Matches 30
Team strength
Auxerre
Rennes
24
L90 StrengthIn forecast
44
30
Current StrengthIn forecast
52
39
AttackIn forecast
63
25
DefenceIn forecast
39
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRennes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AuxerreRennes
0.77
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.55
1.36
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.59
1.01
xGVia Att/Def
1.43
1.29
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.55
-0.24
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
45%
Scored inContext
77%
23%
Clean sheetsContext
23%
10.36
ShotsContext
12.82
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.41
30%
On target shareContext
34%
6.45
Shots in the boxContext
8.10
61%
Box shareContext
61%
8%
ConversionContext
12%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.43
11.14
Shots allowedContext
13.41
4.45
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.09
2.94
BlocksContext
4.33
3.27
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.95
74%
Save rateContext
69%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
374
PassesContext
449
303
Accurate passesContext
382
81%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.85
13.05
FoulsContext
11.82
13.91
Fouls sufferedContext
11.59
2.05
Yellow cardsContext
1.59
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.15
xGVia Att/Def
1.54
1.19
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.43
-0.15
Goals minus xGContext
-0.04
40%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.60
ShotsContext
13.20
3.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
28%
On target shareContext
33%
7.11
Shots in the boxContext
7.60
64%
Box shareContext
57%
9%
ConversionContext
11%
1.83
OffsidesContext
2.50
10.70
Shots allowedContext
12.90
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
3.13
BlocksContext
4.20
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.44
77%
Save rateContext
72%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
369
PassesContext
445
301
Accurate passesContext
377
82%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.81
12.50
FoulsContext
11.50
12.80
Fouls sufferedContext
10.90
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Auxerre
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km478 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Rennes
Rest8.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel392 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Auxerre |
Rennes |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 15 Feb | 8.8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 13 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 392 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 478 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Auxerre
Confirmed XI
16D. Léon(G)
92C. Akpa
24B. Okoh
20S. Diomandé
27L. Sy
5K. Danois
42E. Owusu
8N. Ahamada
10L. Sinayoko
9S. Mara
19D. Namaso
Rennes
Confirmed XI
30B. Samba(G)
26Q. Merlin
3L. Brassier
24A. Rouault
18M. Nagida
45M. Camara
21V. Rongier
70A. Nordin
17S. Szymański
11Mousa Al Ta'mari
9E. Lepaul
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Auxerre
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Rennes
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Auxerre+0.3 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Rennes-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Auxerre · Home
1.00points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-6
- Scored
- 0.91
- Conceded
- 1.09
Rennes · Away
1.18points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-4
- Scored
- 1.09
- Conceded
- 2.09
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Auxerre | Rennes |
|---|---|---|
| Metz | W 3–1 AW 3–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Paris FC | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| Toulouse | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 0–1 HL 0–2 A | W 3–1 HL 0–5 A |
| Lens | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H | L 1–3 AD 0–0 H |
| Stade Brestois 29 | L 0–2 A | W 3–1 H |
| Lille | L 3–4 H | W 2–0 A |
| Lyon | D 0–0 H | W 3–1 H |
| Angers | L 0–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Marseille | L 0–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Strasbourg | L 0–3 A | W 4–1 H |
| LE Havre | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 HD 2–2 A |
| Monaco | L 1–2 H | L 0–4 AW 4–1 H |
| Nantes | L 0–1 A | D 2–2 A |
| Nice | L 1–3 A | L 1–2 H |
| Lorient | W 1–0 H | L 0–2 HL 0–4 A |
| Points | 16 of 63 · 0.76 per game | 33 of 63 · 1.57 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
2 Auxerre wins2 draws1 Rennes wins
Goals per game1.40 – 1.40
Over 2.560%
Both scored20%
Clean sheets60% · 40%
- 19 Oct 2025Rennes2–2Auxerre
- 6 Apr 2025Rennes0–1Auxerre
- 3 Nov 2024Auxerre4–0Rennes
- 11 Mar 2023Auxerre0–0Rennes
- 11 Sep 2022Rennes5–0Auxerre
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Auxerre | Rennes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.77 | 1.55 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.36 | 1.59 | |
| Match goals | 2.14 | 3.14 | 2.64 |
| Over 1.5 | 55% | 82% | |
| Over 2.5 | 36% | 64% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 23% | 59% | |
| Both teams scored | 36% | 59% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 23% | |
| Failed to score | 55% | 23% | |
| Games | 22 | 22 |
| Auxerre | Rennes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 3.30 | 2.64 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 60% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Auxerre | Rennes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.68 | 5.41 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.36 | 4.82 | |
| Match total | 9.04 | 10.23 | 9.20 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 11/22 | 68% 15/22 | |
| Over 9.5 | 36% 8/22 | 55% 12/22 | |
| Over 10.5 | 27% 6/22 | 45% 10/22 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.32 | 1.77 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.68 | 2.18 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 3.95 | 3.96 |
| Over 3.5 | 73% 16/22 | 59% 13/22 | |
| Over 4.5 | 45% 10/22 | 45% 10/22 | |
| Auxerre | Rennes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 9.40 | 11.00 | 9.20 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 2.80 | 3.96 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Gael Angoula France · 30 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.00league 3.64
Red cards0.17league 0.30
Cards 5+17%league 36%
Fouls20.5league 24.0
Penalties0.37league 0.40
Home wins53%league 50%
Auxerre3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.7
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds2
- D10 Jan 25H · Lille0–01
- W3 Nov 24H · Rennes4–00
- L25 Aug 24A · Nantes0–22
Rennes2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L3 Nov 24A · Auxerre0–42
- L22 Oct 23A · Lorient1–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Auxerre22 games · scored 17 · conceded 30
2
4
0-15
1
3
16-30
4
5
31-45
2
5
46-60
4
3
61-75
4
10
76-90
Rennes22 games · scored 34 · conceded 35
3
4
0-15
8
1
16-30
3
7
31-45
8
6
46-60
3
7
61-75
9
10
76-90
Auxerre10 games · scored 10 · conceded 11
1
1
0-15
16-30
3
3
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
6
76-90
Rennes10 games · scored 15 · conceded 18
1
2
0-15
4
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
