Auxerre
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Strasbourg were slight favourites.
Strasbourg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (52 vs 22). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Strasbourg. Auxerre had 6.1 days of rest, Strasbourg 7.9 and had to travel 322 km.
Away travel322 kmRest days6.1 · 7.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Auxerre22%
Draw26%
Strasbourg52%
Auxerre26%
Draw26%
Strasbourg48%
Auxerre22%
Draw26%
Strasbourg52%
Auxerre17%
Draw24%
Strasbourg59%
Auxerre23%
Draw26%
Strasbourg51%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Auxerre)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceJeremie Pignard
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.39
- Matches 97
Team strength
Auxerre
Strasbourg
22
L90 StrengthIn forecast
52
30
Current StrengthIn forecast
45
39
AttackIn forecast
40
25
DefenceIn forecast
37
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisStrasbourg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AuxerreStrasbourg
0.79
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.67
1.46
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.29
1.01
xGVia Att/Def
1.51
1.26
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.19
-0.22
Goals minus xGContext
+0.16
46%
Scored inContext
88%
21%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
10.33
ShotsContext
10.67
3.27
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.52
29%
On target shareContext
41%
6.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.65
62%
Box shareContext
70%
8%
ConversionContext
16%
2.23
OffsidesContext
1.90
11.25
Shots allowedContext
11.42
4.54
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.22
3.00
BlocksContext
3.28
3.21
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.91
71%
Save rateContext
69%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
375
PassesContext
500
304
Accurate passesContext
441
81%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.86
13.00
FoulsContext
11.04
14.13
Fouls sufferedContext
12.21
2.04
Yellow cardsContext
1.79
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.17
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.06
xGVia Att/Def
1.60
1.10
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.20
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
40%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
10.30
ShotsContext
12.00
3.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.30
25%
On target shareContext
44%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.44
65%
Box shareContext
67%
11%
ConversionContext
15%
1.67
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.10
Shots allowedContext
13.20
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
3.63
BlocksContext
3.38
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
69%
Save rateContext
68%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
384
PassesContext
513
311
Accurate passesContext
458
81%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.88
12.30
FoulsContext
9.20
13.90
Fouls sufferedContext
9.60
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Auxerre
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,037 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Strasbourg
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel322 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Auxerre |
Strasbourg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 1 Mar | 7.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 27 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 322 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,037 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Auxerre
Confirmed XI
16D. Léon(G)
14G. Mensah
24B. Okoh
20S. Diomandé
29M. Senaya
22F. Oppegård
5K. Danois
42E. Owusu
7J. Casimir
19D. Namaso
10L. Sinayoko
Strasbourg
Confirmed XI
39M. Penders(G)
3B. Chilwell
6I. Doukouré
2A. Omobamidele
24L. Høgsberg
42A. Ouattara
29S. El Mourabet
20B. Godo
19J. Enciso
80Gessime Yassine
15D. Fofana
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Auxerre
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Strasbourg
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Auxerre-0.2 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Strasbourg+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Auxerre · Home
0.92points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-7
- Scored
- 0.83
- Conceded
- 1.25
Strasbourg · Away
1.00points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-6
- Scored
- 1.58
- Conceded
- 1.83
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Auxerre | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|
| Lorient | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| Rennes | L 0–3 HD 2–2 A | L 1–4 A |
| Metz | W 3–1 AW 3–1 H | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Paris FC | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A | W 3–2 A |
| Toulouse | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 0–1 HL 0–2 A | L 1–2 HD 3–3 A |
| Lens | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Stade Brestois 29 | L 0–2 A | L 1–2 H |
| Lille | L 3–4 H | W 4–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Lyon | D 0–0 H | W 3–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Angers | L 0–2 A | W 5–0 H |
| Marseille | L 0–1 H | D 2–2 AL 1–2 H |
| LE Havre | L 0–1 H | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Monaco | L 1–2 H | L 2–3 A |
| Nantes | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Nice | L 1–3 A | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 18 of 69 · 0.78 per game | 32 of 69 · 1.39 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
1 Auxerre wins0 draws4 Strasbourg wins
Goals per game0.40 – 1.80
Over 2.540%
Both scored20%
Clean sheets20% · 60%
- 29 Oct 2025Strasbourg3–0Auxerre
- 2 Mar 2025Auxerre0–1Strasbourg
- 5 Jan 2025Strasbourg3–1Auxerre
- 19 Mar 2023Strasbourg2–0Auxerre
- 27 Aug 2022Auxerre1–0Strasbourg
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Auxerre | Strasbourg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.79 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.46 | 1.29 | |
| Match goals | 2.25 | 2.96 | 2.61 |
| Over 1.5 | 58% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 42% | 63% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 63% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 54% | 13% | |
| Games | 24 | 24 |
| Auxerre | Strasbourg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.70 | 2.61 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Auxerre | Strasbourg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.71 | 3.55 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.29 | 4.41 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 7.96 | 9.16 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 12/24 | 45% 10/22 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 8/24 | 27% 6/22 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 6/24 | 23% 5/22 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.29 | 2.04 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.67 | 1.96 | |
| Match total | 4.96 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 18/24 | 71% 17/24 | |
| Over 4.5 | 46% 11/24 | 29% 7/24 | |
| Auxerre | Strasbourg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.10 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 8.90 | 10.00 | 9.16 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jeremie Pignard France · 97 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.34league 3.70
Red cards0.31league 0.29
Cards 5+54%league 36%
Fouls22.5league 23.9
Penalties0.39league 0.39
Home wins43%league 49%
Auxerre4 with this referee
Record0-1-3
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.8
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds2
- L14 Dec 25H · Lille3–45
- L4 May 25H · LE Havre1–22
- D6 Dec 24H · Paris Saint Germain0–02
- L30 Apr 23A · Marseille1–20
Strasbourg11 with this referee
Record4-4-3
Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 3
- W18 Jan 26H · Metz2–12
- L26 Sep 25H · Marseille1–22
- D12 Apr 25H · Nice2–21
- W16 Mar 24A · Nantes3–13
- D7 Dec 23A · Stade Brestois 291–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Auxerre24 games · scored 19 · conceded 35
3
4
0-15
2
7
16-30
4
6
31-45
2
5
46-60
4
3
61-75
4
10
76-90
Strasbourg24 games · scored 40 · conceded 31
3
4
0-15
7
4
16-30
6
2
31-45
7
9
46-60
8
2
61-75
9
10
76-90
Auxerre10 games · scored 11 · conceded 15
2
1
0-15
1
4
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
6
76-90
Strasbourg10 games · scored 18 · conceded 12
3
1
0-15
4
3
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
