Auxerre
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Auxerre22.2%fair odds 4.51
Draw26.0%fair odds 3.85
Strasbourg51.8%fair odds 1.93
Expected goals0.98 – 1.63total 2.61
Likeliest score1–112.4%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Strasbourg
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Auxerre ↓ · Strasbourg → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 12.4 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.8 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Auxerre goals, columns Strasbourg goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.4%8.08
- 0–111.3%8.81
- 0–29.7%10.26
- 1–29.6%10.45
- 0–08.0%12.54
- 1–06.6%15.15
- 2–15.8%17.32
- 0–35.3%18.92
- 1–35.2%19.26
- 2–24.7%21.28
Winning margin
2.2%
Auxerre by 3+
fair 45.83
5.9%
Auxerre by 2
fair 17.07
14.1%
Auxerre by 1
fair 7.08
26.0%
Draw
fair 3.85
23.8%
Strasbourg by 1
fair 4.20
16.1%
Strasbourg by 2
fair 6.21
11.9%
Strasbourg by 3+
fair 8.39
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
18%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
12%5+
Auxerre goals
37%0
37%1
18%2
6%3
2%4+
Strasbourg goals
20%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Auxerre win | 22.2% | 22.6% | -0.5 pp |
| Draw | 26.0% | 25.9% | +0.0 pp |
| Strasbourg win | 51.8% | 51.4% | +0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 48.4% | 49.0% | -0.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 50.9% | 51.5% | -0.7 pp |
| Expected goals Auxerre | 0.98 | 1.00 | -0.02 |
| Expected goals Strasbourg | 1.63 | 1.63 | -0.00 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Auxerre win22.2%4.51
- Draw26.0%3.85
- Strasbourg win51.8%1.93
- Double chance Auxerre or draw48.2%2.08
- Double chance Auxerre or Strasbourg74.0%1.35
- Double chance Strasbourg or draw77.8%1.28
- Draw no bet Auxerre30.0%3.34
- Draw no bet Strasbourg70.0%1.43
Goals
- Over 0.592.0%1.09
- Over 1.574.1%1.35
- Over 2.548.4%2.07
- Over 3.526.6%3.76
- Over 4.512.4%8.06
- Under 1.525.9%3.86
- Under 2.551.6%1.94
- Under 3.573.4%1.36
Both teams to score
- Yes50.9%1.96
- No49.1%2.04
- Yes and over 2.538.5%2.60
- Auxerre win and yes10.5%9.51
- Draw and yes18.0%5.55
- Strasbourg win and yes22.4%4.47
Team goals
- Auxerre over 0.562.6%1.60
- Auxerre over 1.525.8%3.88
- Auxerre over 2.57.7%12.98
- Strasbourg over 0.580.4%1.24
- Strasbourg over 1.548.4%2.07
- Strasbourg over 2.522.4%4.47
- Auxerre clean sheet19.6%5.09
- Strasbourg clean sheet37.4%2.67
- Auxerre win to nil11.7%8.58
- Strasbourg win to nil29.5%3.39
Handicap
- Auxerre −1.58.0%12.44
- Auxerre −2.52.2%45.83
- Strasbourg +1.592.0%1.09
- Strasbourg +2.597.8%1.02
- Strasbourg −1.528.0%3.57
- Auxerre +1.572.0%1.39
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Ligue 1 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored218
Favourite won55.5%
Avg chance given to result42.5%
1X2 Brier0.572
Over 2.5 called right53.2%
BTTS called right53.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 34 | 38.0% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 67 | 44.9% | 46.3% |
| 50–60% | 54 | 54.2% | 50.0% |
| 60–70% | 35 | 64.4% | 71.4% |
| 70–80% | 20 | 74.4% | 70.0% |
| 80%+ | 8 | 87.4% | 87.5% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 180 of 218 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5938 | 0.5850 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.4% | 41.2% |
| Favourite won | 51.7% | 53.3% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 180 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 218 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.