AVS
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Arouca were slight favourites.
Arouca were the stronger side on L90 Strength (21 vs 10). AVS had 13.9 days of rest, Arouca 14.1 and had to travel.
Rest days13.9 · 14.1Matches / 14d1 · 0
AVS31%
Draw28%
Arouca41%
AVS32%
Draw27%
Arouca41%
AVS31%
Draw28%
Arouca41%
AVS25%
Draw27%
Arouca48%
AVS32%
Draw27%
Arouca41%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vila das Aves)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalJoao Pedro Pinheiro
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 89
Team strength
AVS
Arouca
10
L90 StrengthIn forecast
21
16
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
17
AttackIn forecast
28
21
DefenceIn forecast
37
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisArouca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AVSArouca
0.65
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.06
2.53
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.47
0.83
xGVia Att/Def
0.67
1.81
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.72
-0.18
Goals minus xGContext
+0.39
47%
Scored inContext
59%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
12%
9.53
ShotsContext
9.06
2.82
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
30%
On target shareContext
31%
5.69
Shots in the boxContext
5.44
57%
Box shareContext
56%
7%
ConversionContext
12%
1.80
OffsidesContext
1.88
14.53
Shots allowedContext
13.47
5.53
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.12
3.12
BlocksContext
3.87
3.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.94
58%
Save rateContext
56%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
316
PassesContext
388
241
Accurate passesContext
318
76%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.54
Team ratingContext
6.55
14.12
FoulsContext
13.76
12.06
Fouls sufferedContext
11.47
2.12
Yellow cardsContext
2.53
0.12
Red cardsContext
0.18
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
2.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.40
0.80
xGVia Att/Def
0.72
1.86
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.65
-0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.18
50%
Scored inContext
60%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
9.30
ShotsContext
8.90
3.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
36%
On target shareContext
30%
5.60
Shots in the boxContext
5.44
59%
Box shareContext
56%
8%
ConversionContext
10%
1.17
OffsidesContext
2.00
15.20
Shots allowedContext
12.90
6.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
3.10
BlocksContext
4.25
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
64%
Save rateContext
60%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
315
PassesContext
396
242
Accurate passesContext
322
77%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.53
Team ratingContext
6.57
13.00
FoulsContext
13.70
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
AVS
Rest13.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Arouca
Rest14.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| AVS |
Arouca |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 3 Jan | 14.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 3 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | — | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 0 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
AVS
Confirmed XI
1Adriel
24Kiki
35Rúben Semedo
26Carlos Ponck
42C. Devenish
8Pedro Lima
70Roni
23Gustavo Mendonça
14Ó. Perea
7Tómané
11B. Akinsola
Arouca
Confirmed XI
12I. de Arruabarrena(G)
25B. Kuipers
15Javi Sánchez
4M. Rocha
28Tiago Esgaio
21T. Fukui
22E. van Ee
7N. Djouahra
14Lee Hyun-Ju
19A. Trezza
17Barbero
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences AVS
Absences are shown before kick-off
Arouca
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- AVS+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Arouca+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
AVS · Home
0.33points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-3-6
- Scored
- 0.78
- Conceded
- 2.00
Arouca · Away
0.63points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-5
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.88
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | AVS | Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| Moreirense | L 0–2 H | L 0–2 H |
| FC Porto | L 0–2 A | L 0–4 H |
| Nacional | D 2–2 H | W 2–1 A |
| Sporting CP | L 0–6 A | L 0–6 A |
| Rio Ave | L 1–2 H | D 3–3 H |
| Guimaraes | L 0–4 A | D 1–1 A |
| GIL Vicente | D 1–1 H | D 2–2 H |
| Tondela | D 2–2 H | L 1–3 A |
| Santa Clara | L 0–2 A | D 0–0 A |
| Alverca | L 1–3 H | W 1–0 H |
| Estrela | L 0–3 A | L 1–3 A |
| Benfica | L 0–3 H | L 0–5 A |
| Estoril | L 1–3 A | L 3–4 A |
| Famalicao | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| SC Braga | D 2–2 A | L 0–4 H |
| Casa Pia | L 0–2 H | L 0–2 H |
| Points | 4 of 48 · 0.25 per game | 11 of 48 · 0.69 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 AVS wins1 draws2 Arouca wins
Goals per game0.67 – 1.67
Over 2.533%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 9 Aug 2025Arouca3–1AVS
- 8 Mar 2025AVS0–1Arouca
- 5 Oct 2024Arouca1–1AVS
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| AVS | Arouca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.65 | 1.06 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.53 | 2.47 | |
| Match goals | 3.18 | 3.53 | 2.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 94% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 65% | 65% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 47% | 59% | |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 53% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 12% | |
| Failed to score | 53% | 41% | |
| Games | 17 | 17 |
| AVS | Arouca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.60 | 2.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 3.30 | 2.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| AVS | Arouca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.79 | 4.19 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.57 | 5.25 | |
| Match total | 9.36 | 9.44 | 9.19 |
| Over 8.5 | 64% 9/14 | 56% 9/16 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 6/14 | 50% 8/16 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 6/14 | 44% 7/16 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.29 | 2.88 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.59 | 2.29 | |
| Match total | 4.88 | 5.17 | 5.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 59% 10/17 | 82% 14/17 | |
| Over 4.5 | 59% 10/17 | 59% 10/17 | |
| AVS | Arouca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.38 | 4.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.75 | 5.89 | |
| Match total | 9.13 | 10.33 | 9.19 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 4.90 | 5.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Joao Pedro Pinheiro Portugal · 89 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.38league 5.03
Red cards0.19league 0.28
Cards 5+46%league 59%
Fouls25.9league 27.3
Penalties0.26league 0.44
Home wins42%league 39%
AVS1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W25 Aug 24H · Guimaraes1–03
Arouca5 with this referee
Record2-0-3
Cards · opp.2.8 · 1.6
Pens for · against0 · 2
- L13 Sep 24H · Sporting CP0–33
- W28 Dec 23A · Estrela4–13
- L8 May 23H · FC Porto0–11
- W7 Jan 23H · Estoril2–02
- L12 Nov 22H · Rio Ave0–15
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
AVS17 games · scored 11 · conceded 43
1
6
0-15
1
6
16-30
4
8
31-45
1
10
46-60
1
8
61-75
3
5
76-90
Arouca16 games · scored 18 · conceded 37
5
5
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
10
31-45
4
7
46-60
4
5
61-75
2
7
76-90
AVS10 games · scored 7 · conceded 26
1
4
0-15
2
16-30
3
5
31-45
1
6
46-60
1
5
61-75
1
4
76-90
Arouca9 games · scored 9 · conceded 19
4
3
0-15
2
16-30
1
7
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
