AVS
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Benfica were clear favourites.
Benfica were the stronger side on L90 Strength (79 vs 14). Benfica usually keep the ball (57% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. AVS had 7.1 days of rest, Benfica 7.9 and had to travel.
Rest days7.1 · 7.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
AVS9%
Draw17%
Benfica74%
AVS9%
Draw17%
Benfica74%
AVS9%
Draw17%
Benfica74%
AVS6%
Draw14%
Benfica80%
AVS9%
Draw17%
Benfica74%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 46%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vila das Aves)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalBruno Jose Ribeiro Pires Costa
- Cards per match 6.0
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 3
Team strength
AVS
Benfica
14
L90 StrengthIn forecast
79
16
Current StrengthIn forecast
82
17
AttackIn forecast
81
21
DefenceIn forecast
81
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBenfica
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AVSBenfica
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.75
2.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
0.84
xGVia Att/Def
1.83
1.49
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.86
-0.04
Goals minus xGContext
-0.08
60%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
10.00
ShotsContext
13.75
2.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.25
24%
On target shareContext
38%
5.50
Shots in the boxContext
9.25
47%
Box shareContext
67%
8%
ConversionContext
13%
2.75
OffsidesContext
1.33
13.20
Shots allowedContext
10.75
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.25
2.60
BlocksContext
2.50
2.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
50%
Save rateContext
94%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
64%
313
PassesContext
529
233
Accurate passesContext
460
75%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.61
Team ratingContext
6.95
14.60
FoulsContext
14.50
13.60
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.75
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
2.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.60
0.85
xGVia Att/Def
1.59
1.47
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.14
-0.15
Goals minus xGContext
-0.09
60%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
10.70
ShotsContext
13.80
2.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
25%
On target shareContext
31%
6.44
Shots in the boxContext
8.70
55%
Box shareContext
61%
7%
ConversionContext
11%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.13
13.50
Shots allowedContext
10.90
5.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.63
3.10
BlocksContext
3.00
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
55%
Save rateContext
87%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
300
PassesContext
490
223
Accurate passesContext
419
75%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.67
Team ratingContext
7.01
15.40
FoulsContext
12.80
11.80
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
3.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
AVS
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Benfica
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| AVS |
Benfica |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 13 Sep | 7.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 12 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | — | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 3.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
AVS
Confirmed XI
93Simão(G)
24Kiki
3Paulo Vitor
42C. Devenish
4S. Bane
15Jaume Grau
14Ó. Perea
17Bruno Lourenço
27Ángel Algobia
11B. Akinsola
7Tómané
Benfica
Confirmed XI
1A. Trubin(G)
26S. Dahl
30N. Otamendi
4António Silva
17A. Dedić
10H. Sudakov
5E. Barrenechea
20Richard Ríos
8F. Aursnes
14V. Pavlidis
9F. Ivanović
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences AVS
Absences are shown before kick-off
Benfica
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- AVS+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Benfica+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
AVS · Home
0.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Benfica · Away
3.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 0.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 AVS wins1 draws1 Benfica wins
Goals per game0.50 – 3.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 27 Apr 2025Benfica6–0AVS
- 15 Dec 2024AVS1–1Benfica
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| AVS | Benfica | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.75 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.20 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.25 | 3.03 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 0% | |
| Games | 5 | 4 |
| AVS | Benfica | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.75 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.20 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.25 | 3.03 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 0% | |
| Games | 5 | 4 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| AVS | Benfica | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.25 | 4.25 | |
| Match total | 10.75 | 9.75 | 9.19 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 3/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 2/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 2/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.40 | 2.75 | |
| Match total | 5.40 | 5.75 | 5.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 4/5 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 80% 4/5 | 50% 2/4 | |
| AVS | Benfica | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 5.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.33 | 4.10 | |
| Match total | 9.33 | 9.50 | 9.19 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.20 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 5.70 | 5.00 | 5.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bruno Jose Ribeiro Pires Costa Portugal · 3 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.67league 5.06
Red cards0.33league 0.21
Cards 5+100%league 62%
Fouls25.0league 27.6
Penalties0.00league 0.34
Home wins33%league 34%
AVSNo previous matches with this referee.
BenficaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
AVS5 games · scored 4 · conceded 11
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
46-60
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
Benfica4 games · scored 7 · conceded 2
1
0-15
16-30
3
31-45
2
46-60
61-75
1
2
76-90
AVS10 games · scored 7 · conceded 23
1
3
0-15
1
6
16-30
1
2
31-45
4
46-60
1
4
61-75
3
4
76-90
Benfica10 games · scored 15 · conceded 6
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
4
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
