Primeira Liga Gameweek 6 Sat, Sep 20 2025 · 15:30 Estádio da Madeira, Ilha da Madeira
Nacional
1–2 Full time · HT 0–0 xG 2.43 – 1.11
Arouca
  • J. Ramírez 66’ (P)
  • Matheus Dias 79’
  • 74’ B. Popović
  • 89’ E. van Ee
  • 85’ José Fontán
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Match story · our forecast vs the result iModel is our forecast, published before the match and locked at kick-off: expected goals for each side and the probability of every outcome.

xG after the match measures the quality of the chances each side actually created. It is known only after the final whistle, so it is not a forecast.

Arouca come from behind to beat Nacional

Nacional entered as narrow favourites and led 1–0 after 66 minutes through a Ramírez goal. But Popović and van Ee scored to turn it around for Arouca, who won 2–1. Nacional played with ten men from the 79th minute after Dias was sent off. Arouca won despite the lower xG; Nacional created the better chances (2.43 vs 1.11). On the chances created, Nacional deserved more: 2.2 expected points against the 0 points they took.

Nacional38%
Draw28%
Arouca ✓33%

Model vs reality

Nacional goals
1
Model 1.31 · xG 2.43
Arouca goals
2
Model 1.20 · xG 1.11
Total goals
3
Model 2.51 · xG 3.54
Score 1–2
8%
Most likely 1–1 (13%)
Over 2.5
Yes
Model 46%
Both scored
Yes
Model 52%
Match facts
★ Player of the matchJoão ValidoArouca
8.5
  • RefereeJoao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves
  • VenueEstádio da Madeira
  • Table before kick-offNacional 14th · Arouca 12th

Timeline

  1. ✕ J. RamírezMissed penalty
    4’
  2. LizieroYellow card
    5’
  3. Half time · 0–0
  4. José FontánYellow card
    57’
  5. ⇄ Pablo GozálbezFor Lee Hyun-Ju
    62’
  6. J. Ramírez (pen) 1–0
    66’
  7. ⇄ BarberoFor D. Nandin
    71’
  8. ⇄ Brian MansillaFor A. Trezza
    71’
  9. B. Popović 1–1Assist N. Djouahra
    74’
  10. ⇄ WitiFor Pablo Ruan
    78’
  11. Matheus DiasRed card
    79’
  12. ⇄ UlissesFor C. Labidi
    82’
  13. ⇄ E. van EeFor T. Fukui
    84’
  14. ⇄ Miguel PucheFor N. Djouahra
    84’
  15. José FontánSecond yellow
    85’
  16. ⇄ Filipe SoaresFor Léo Santos
    88’
  17. E. van Ee 1–2Assist Barbero
    89’
  18. VAR J. RamírezGoal Disallowed - offside
    90+5’
  19. J. RamírezYellow card
    90+6’
  20. Full time · 1–2

Team stats

Nacional14 shots · 7 in box, 7 outside
Arouca10 shots · 5 in box, 5 outside
NacionalArouca
58% Possession 42%
2.43 Expected goals (xG) 1.11
2.17 Expected points (xPts) 0.65
14 Shots 10
6 Shots on target 3
6 Shots off target 4
2 Blocked shots 3
7 Shots inside the box 5
7 Shots outside the box 5
331 Passes 243
77% Pass accuracy 74%
3 Corners 5
1 Goalkeeper saves 5
9 Fouls 16
7 Offsides 0
2 Yellow cards 1
1 Red cards 1
6.55 Team rating 6.90

Line-ups

Nacional 4-1-4-1

375.5 Lucas França(G)
55.9 José Gomes 387.3 Zé Vitor 346.2 Léo Santos ↓88’ 26.9 João Aurélio
66.6 Matheus Dias
117.0 Paulinho Bóia 156.5 C. Labidi ↓82’ 286.5 Liziero 997.7 Pablo Ruan ↓78’
96.2 J. Ramírez
  • 37Lucas França (G)5.5
  • 5José Gomes5.9
  • 38Zé Vitor7.3
  • 34Léo Santos↓88’6.2
  • 2João Aurélio6.9
  • 6Matheus Dias6.6
  • 11Paulinho Bóia7.0
  • 15C. Labidi↓82’6.5
  • 28Liziero6.5
  • 99Pablo Ruan↓78’7.7
  • 9J. Ramírez6.2

Substitutes used

  • 7Witi↑78’6.2
  • 4Ulisses↑82’6.5
  • 22Filipe Soares↑88’6.3

Unused: Kaique, Alan Nuñez, Joel Silva, André Sousa, Martim Watts, Lucas João

Arouca 4-2-3-1

18.5★ João Valido(G)
446.7 A. Dante 35.9 José Fontán 57.9 B. Popović 286.2 Tiago Esgaio
87.0 David Simão 217.5 T. Fukui ↓84’
76.9 N. Djouahra A↓84’ 146.3 Lee Hyun-Ju ↓62’ 196.3 A. Trezza ↓71’
236.5 D. Nandin ↓71’
  • 1João Valido (G) ★8.5
  • 44A. Dante6.7
  • 3José Fontán5.9
  • 5B. Popović7.9
  • 28Tiago Esgaio6.2
  • 8David Simão7.0
  • 21T. Fukui↓84’7.5
  • 7N. DjouahraA↓84’6.9
  • 14Lee Hyun-Ju↓62’6.3
  • 19A. Trezza↓71’6.3
  • 23D. Nandin↓71’6.5

Substitutes used

  • 10Pablo Gozálbez↑62’6.5
  • 24Brian Mansilla↑71’6.3
  • 17BarberoA↑71’6.9
  • 22E. van Ee↑84’7.5
  • 11Miguel Puche↑84’6.7

Unused: N. Mantl, Alex Pinto, M. Rocha, Pedro Santos

Player stats

Top rated
João ValidoArouca8.5
2nd
B. PopovićArouca7.9
3rd
Pablo RuanNacional7.7

Nacional

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
Lucas França G 90 0 0 1 sv 0 63% 24 0 0 0/0 0/0 5.5
José Gomes D 90 0 0 1 (1) 1 67% 18 0 0 1/2 1/1 5.9
Zé Vitor D 90 0 0 1 (0) 1 80% 55 3 2 0/0 3/1 7.3
Léo Santos D 88 0 0 0 (0) 1 78% 46 0 2 1/1 0/1 6.2
João Aurélio D 90 0 0 1 (1) 0 69% 26 1 0 0/0 0/2 6.9
Matheus Dias M 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 88% 49 3 2 0/0 1/2 6.6
Paulinho Bóia F 90 0 0 1 (0) 0 65% 20 1 0 3/3 0/1 7.0
C. Labidi M 82 0 0 1 (0) 1 82% 17 2 0 0/1 0/0 6.5
Liziero M 90 0 0 1 (0) 1 87% 31 1 0 0/0 1/1 6.5
Pablo Ruan M 78 0 0 4 (2) 3 76% 17 1 1 4/5 0/0 7.7
J. Ramírez F 90 1 0 2 (2) 1 62% 13 0 0 0/0 2/3 6.2
Witi F 12 0 0 0 (0) 0 80% 5 0 0 0/1 1/0 6.2
Ulisses D 8 0 0 0 (0) 0 83% 6 0 0 0/0 0/1 6.5
Filipe Soares M 2 0 0 0 (0) 0 75% 4 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.3

Arouca

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
João Valido G 90 0 0 5 sv 0 58% 26 0 0 0/0 0/1 8.5
A. Dante D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 82% 28 0 2 1/2 3/1 6.7
José Fontán D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 86% 22 0 0 0/0 2/0 5.9
B. Popović D 90 1 0 1 (1) 0 68% 19 0 1 0/0 0/0 7.9
Tiago Esgaio D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 50% 18 0 0 1/1 0/0 6.2
David Simão M 90 0 0 0 (0) 1 78% 40 2 0 0/0 3/0 7.0
T. Fukui M 84 0 0 0 (0) 0 68% 19 1 0 1/1 0/2 7.5
N. Djouahra F 84 0 1 1 (0) 1 93% 27 1 0 1/1 0/0 6.9
Lee Hyun-Ju M 62 0 0 0 (0) 0 87% 15 0 0 0/1 1/0 6.3
A. Trezza F 71 0 0 1 (0) 3 55% 11 2 0 0/0 2/0 6.3
D. Nandin F 71 0 0 1 (0) 0 67% 6 0 0 0/1 3/3 6.5
Pablo Gozálbez M 28 0 0 1 (0) 1 80% 5 1 0 0/0 1/1 6.5
Brian Mansilla F 19 0 0 1 (1) 0 0% 1 0 0 0/1 0/0 6.3
Barbero F 19 0 1 0 (0) 2 100% 3 1 0 0/0 1/1 6.9
E. van Ee M 6 1 0 1 (1) 0 0% 1 1 0 0/0 0/0 7.5
Miguel Puche F 6 0 0 0 (0) 0 100% 2 0 1 0/0 0/0 6.7

Match data from eScored. Ratings are the data provider's 0–10 match ratings; 7.2 and above is a strong game, 8+ is rare.