AVS
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Famalicao were slight favourites.
Famalicao were the stronger side on L90 Strength (37 vs 16). AVS had 5.9 days of rest, Famalicao 6.1 and had to travel.
Rest days5.9 · 6.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
AVS27%
Draw28%
Famalicao45%
AVS28%
Draw26%
Famalicao46%
AVS27%
Draw28%
Famalicao45%
AVS21%
Draw26%
Famalicao53%
AVS28%
Draw26%
Famalicao46%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vila das Aves)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalAnzhony Rodrigues
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 9
Team strength
AVS
Famalicao
16
L90 StrengthIn forecast
37
16
Current StrengthIn forecast
38
17
AttackIn forecast
24
21
DefenceIn forecast
36
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFamalicao
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AVSFamalicao
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.33
2.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.00
0.93
xGVia Att/Def
0.82
1.62
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.75
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.51
67%
Scored inContext
67%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
100%
9.33
ShotsContext
10.33
2.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.67
21%
On target shareContext
36%
5.50
Shots in the boxContext
6.67
43%
Box shareContext
66%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
1.50
OffsidesContext
1.50
13.33
Shots allowedContext
13.67
4.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.67
3.00
BlocksContext
4.00
2.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.67
50%
Save rateContext
100%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
292
PassesContext
357
215
Accurate passesContext
288
74%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.60
Team ratingContext
7.20
15.67
FoulsContext
18.33
13.33
Fouls sufferedContext
15.67
2.33
Yellow cardsContext
2.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
2.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
0.80
xGVia Att/Def
1.32
1.68
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.23
-0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.18
60%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
9.80
ShotsContext
10.10
2.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
26%
On target shareContext
38%
6.22
Shots in the boxContext
6.10
59%
Box shareContext
59%
7%
ConversionContext
15%
1.89
OffsidesContext
1.80
14.10
Shots allowedContext
11.90
5.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
3.30
BlocksContext
3.25
3.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.89
56%
Save rateContext
81%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
303
PassesContext
337
226
Accurate passesContext
266
75%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.65
Team ratingContext
6.99
14.90
FoulsContext
16.50
12.10
Fouls sufferedContext
17.20
3.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
AVS
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Famalicao
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| AVS |
Famalicao |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 24 Aug | 6.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 24 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | — | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13.9 | 14.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
AVS
Confirmed XI
93Simão(G)
12Leonardo Rivas
42C. Devenish
33Aderllan Santos
5Guillem Molina
27Ángel Algobia
15Jaume Grau
11B. Akinsola
10Rafael Barbosa
2Diogo Spencer
20Diego Duarte
Famalicao
Confirmed XI
25L. Carević(G)
28Pedro Bondo
16J. de Haas
3L. Realpe
17Rodrigo Pinheiro
14M. De Amorim
8Marcos Peña
7Sorriso
20Gustavo Sá
80Pedro Santos
12S. Elisor
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences AVS
Absences are shown before kick-off
Famalicao
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- AVS+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Famalicao+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
AVS · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Famalicao · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 AVS wins0 draws2 Famalicao wins
Goals per game1.50 – 3.50
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 30 Mar 2025Famalicao4–1AVS
- 3 Nov 2024AVS2–3Famalicao
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| AVS | Famalicao | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.33 | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.33 | 1.33 | 2.50 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 33% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 33% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 67% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 0% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 100% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| AVS | Famalicao | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.33 | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.33 | 1.33 | 2.50 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 33% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 33% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 67% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 0% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 100% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| AVS | Famalicao | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 3.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.50 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 11.50 | 8.34 | 9.25 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 2/2 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.33 | 2.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.67 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 3.33 | 4.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 2/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 2/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| AVS | Famalicao | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 5.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.33 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 10.60 | 9.25 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.40 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 5.30 | 6.60 | 4.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Anzhony Rodrigues Portugal · 9 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.33league 4.93
Red cards0.00league 0.19
Cards 5+44%league 59%
Fouls28.0league 28.4
Penalties0.22league 0.33
Home wins44%league 41%
AVS1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W27 Jan 25H · GIL Vicente1–03
Famalicao1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W17 Feb 25A · GIL Vicente2–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
AVS3 games · scored 3 · conceded 7
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Famalicao3 games · scored 4 · conceded 0
1
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
76-90
AVS10 games · scored 7 · conceded 26
1
3
0-15
1
7
16-30
2
4
31-45
4
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
5
76-90
Famalicao10 games · scored 15 · conceded 9
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
4
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
