AVS
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
GIL Vicente were slight favourites.
GIL Vicente were the stronger side on L90 Strength (34 vs 12). AVS had 7 days of rest, GIL Vicente 5.8 and had to travel.
Rest days7 · 5.8Matches / 14d1 · 1
AVS25%
Draw27%
GIL Vicente48%
AVS25%
Draw26%
GIL Vicente49%
AVS25%
Draw27%
GIL Vicente48%
AVS19%
Draw25%
GIL Vicente55%
AVS25%
Draw26%
GIL Vicente49%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vila das Aves)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalPedro Ramalho
- Cards per match 6.5
- Penalties per match 0.45
- Matches 11
Team strength
AVS
GIL Vicente
12
L90 StrengthIn forecast
34
16
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
17
AttackIn forecast
32
21
DefenceIn forecast
50
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGIL Vicente
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AVSGIL Vicente
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
2.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.40
0.76
xGVia Att/Def
1.37
1.69
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.96
-0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
50%
Scored inContext
80%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
80%
9.40
ShotsContext
13.50
2.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
26%
On target shareContext
35%
5.44
Shots in the boxContext
7.70
56%
Box shareContext
56%
7%
ConversionContext
11%
2.75
OffsidesContext
1.83
13.60
Shots allowedContext
11.20
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.40
BlocksContext
2.86
2.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.44
48%
Save rateContext
86%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
331
PassesContext
331
253
Accurate passesContext
262
76%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.56
Team ratingContext
6.89
15.70
FoulsContext
15.20
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.90
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
2.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.40
0.76
xGVia Att/Def
1.37
1.69
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.96
-0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
50%
Scored inContext
80%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
80%
9.40
ShotsContext
13.50
2.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
26%
On target shareContext
35%
5.44
Shots in the boxContext
7.70
56%
Box shareContext
56%
7%
ConversionContext
11%
2.75
OffsidesContext
1.83
13.60
Shots allowedContext
11.20
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.40
BlocksContext
2.86
2.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.44
48%
Save rateContext
86%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
331
PassesContext
331
253
Accurate passesContext
262
76%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.56
Team ratingContext
6.89
15.70
FoulsContext
15.20
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.90
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
AVS
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
GIL Vicente
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| AVS |
GIL Vicente |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 2 Nov | 5.8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 3 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | — | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 19.2 | 20.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
AVS
Confirmed XI
99João Gonçalves(G)
24Kiki
42C. Devenish
35Rúben Semedo
4S. Bane
15Jaume Grau
6Gustavo Assunção
14Ó. Perea
2Diogo Spencer
11B. Akinsola
7Tómané
GIL Vicente
Confirmed XI
42Andrew(G)
3G. Konan
39Jonathan Buatu
4M. Elimbi
2Zé Carlos
10Luís Esteves
5F. Cáseres
11Joelson Fernandes
95Santi García
77Murilo
9Pablo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences AVS
Absences are shown before kick-off
GIL Vicente
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- AVS+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- GIL Vicente+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
AVS · Home
0.20points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-4
- Scored
- 0.60
- Conceded
- 2.20
GIL Vicente · Away
2.00points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-1
- Scored
- 1.60
- Conceded
- 0.40
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 7 this season
| Opponent | AVS | GIL Vicente |
|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara | L 0–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Alverca | L 1–3 H | W 4–0 A |
| Estrela | L 0–3 A | W 2–0 H |
| Benfica | L 0–3 H | L 1–2 A |
| Estoril | L 1–3 A | W 2–0 H |
| Famalicao | L 0–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| SC Braga | D 2–2 A | W 1–0 A |
| Points | 1 of 21 · 0.14 per game | 16 of 21 · 2.29 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 AVS wins0 draws1 GIL Vicente wins
Goals per game1.50 – 2.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 27 Jan 2025AVS1–0GIL Vicente
- 16 Aug 2024GIL Vicente4–2AVS
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| AVS | GIL Vicente | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.40 | 0.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 1.90 | 2.52 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 20% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 10% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 80% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| AVS | GIL Vicente | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.40 | 0.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 1.90 | 2.52 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 20% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 10% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 80% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| AVS | GIL Vicente | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.25 | 5.14 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.38 | 5.14 | |
| Match total | 9.63 | 10.28 | 9.23 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 4/8 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 4.90 | 5.70 | 5.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| AVS | GIL Vicente | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.25 | 5.14 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.38 | 5.14 | |
| Match total | 9.63 | 10.28 | 9.23 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 4/8 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 4.90 | 5.70 | 5.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Pedro Ramalho Portugal · 11 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards6.27league 5.16
Red cards0.18league 0.29
Cards 5+73%league 64%
Fouls29.2league 27.7
Penalties0.45league 0.46
Home wins27%league 36%
AVS3 with this referee
Record0-2-1
Cards · opp.4.3 · 2.7
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L15 Aug 25H · Casa Pia0–24
- D19 Apr 25H · Casa Pia1–17
- D28 Dec 24H · Estrela1–12
GIL Vicente2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D24 Aug 25A · Famalicao0–01
- W7 Dec 24H · Nacional2–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
AVS10 games · scored 7 · conceded 24
1
3
0-15
1
4
16-30
2
4
31-45
5
46-60
1
5
61-75
2
3
76-90
GIL Vicente10 games · scored 15 · conceded 4
4
0-15
3
16-30
6
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
76-90
AVS10 games · scored 7 · conceded 24
1
3
0-15
1
4
16-30
2
4
31-45
5
46-60
1
5
61-75
2
3
76-90
GIL Vicente10 games · scored 15 · conceded 4
4
0-15
3
16-30
6
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
