AVS
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Rio Ave were slight favourites.
Rio Ave were the stronger side on L90 Strength (25 vs 12). AVS had 7.9 days of rest, Rio Ave 6.1 and had to travel.
Rest days7.9 · 6.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
AVS30%
Draw28%
Rio Ave42%
AVS31%
Draw27%
Rio Ave42%
AVS30%
Draw28%
Rio Ave42%
AVS24%
Draw27%
Rio Ave49%
AVS31%
Draw27%
Rio Ave42%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vila das Aves)
No weather data yet
RefereeJosé Bessa
- Cards per match 5.0
- Penalties per match 0.17
- Matches 24
Team strength
AVS
Rio Ave
12
L90 StrengthIn forecast
25
16
Current StrengthIn forecast
21
17
AttackIn forecast
18
21
DefenceIn forecast
21
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRio Ave
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AVSRio Ave
0.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.25
2.42
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.67
0.87
xGVia Att/Def
0.98
1.67
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.57
-0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.27
50%
Scored inContext
75%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
9.75
ShotsContext
9.08
2.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.09
27%
On target shareContext
41%
6.18
Shots in the boxContext
5.80
61%
Box shareContext
61%
7%
ConversionContext
14%
2.40
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.00
Shots allowedContext
16.50
4.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.42
3.08
BlocksContext
4.58
2.36
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.75
50%
Save rateContext
69%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
337
PassesContext
367
262
Accurate passesContext
302
78%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.55
Team ratingContext
6.85
15.08
FoulsContext
13.58
12.33
Fouls sufferedContext
14.67
1.83
Yellow cardsContext
2.42
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.08
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
2.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
0.81
xGVia Att/Def
0.87
1.74
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.74
-0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.23
50%
Scored inContext
70%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
9.30
ShotsContext
7.60
2.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.33
30%
On target shareContext
40%
6.33
Shots in the boxContext
4.75
64%
Box shareContext
61%
8%
ConversionContext
15%
3.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.70
Shots allowedContext
17.20
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.40
3.30
BlocksContext
4.80
2.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
51%
Save rateContext
69%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
338
PassesContext
359
262
Accurate passesContext
293
78%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.54
Team ratingContext
6.81
14.60
FoulsContext
13.40
11.60
Fouls sufferedContext
14.60
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
AVS
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Rio Ave
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| AVS |
Rio Ave |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 28 Nov | 6.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 30 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | — | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
AVS
Confirmed XI
99João Gonçalves(G)
42C. Devenish
35Rúben Semedo
26Carlos Ponck
24Kiki
15Jaume Grau
27Ángel Algobia
21G. Neiva
14Ó. Perea
6Gustavo Assunção
7Tómané
Rio Ave
Confirmed XI
1C. Miszta(G)
6N. Abbey
4J. Panzo
23F. Petrasso
3N. Athanasiou
10B. Aguilera
5A. Ntoi
17M. Vrousai
80O. Pohlmann
9Clayton
11André Luiz
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences AVS
Absences are shown before kick-off
Rio Ave
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- AVS+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Rio Ave+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
AVS · Home
0.33points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-4
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 2.00
Rio Ave · Away
1.17points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-4-1
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 9 this season
| Opponent | AVS | Rio Ave |
|---|---|---|
| Tondela | D 2–2 H | W 3–0 H |
| Santa Clara | L 0–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Alverca | L 1–3 H | D 1–1 A |
| Estrela | L 0–3 A | W 2–1 A |
| Benfica | L 0–3 H | D 1–1 A |
| Estoril | L 1–3 A | L 0–4 H |
| Famalicao | L 0–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| SC Braga | D 2–2 A | D 2–2 H |
| Arouca | L 1–3 A | D 3–3 A |
| Points | 2 of 27 · 0.22 per game | 12 of 27 · 1.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 AVS wins1 draws0 Rio Ave wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.50
Over 2.50%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 16 Feb 2025Rio Ave1–1AVS
- 14 Sep 2024AVS1–0Rio Ave
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| AVS | Rio Ave | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 1.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.42 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 3.08 | 2.92 | 2.50 |
| Over 1.5 | 92% | 92% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 58% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 67% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 25% | |
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| AVS | Rio Ave | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.40 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 2.70 | 2.50 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 60% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| AVS | Rio Ave | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.80 | 3.27 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.30 | 7.27 | |
| Match total | 9.10 | 10.54 | 9.12 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 73% 8/11 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 64% 7/11 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 55% 6/11 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.92 | 2.58 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.75 | 2.58 | |
| Match total | 4.67 | 5.16 | 5.51 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 8/12 | 75% 9/12 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 8/12 | 67% 8/12 | |
| AVS | Rio Ave | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 3.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.44 | 7.78 | |
| Match total | 9.11 | 11.00 | 9.12 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 5.10 | 5.51 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · José Bessa 24 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.75league 5.17
Red cards0.29league 0.28
Cards 5+54%league 65%
Fouls24.9league 27.5
Penalties0.17league 0.48
Home wins50%league 35%
AVS1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L30 Mar 25A · Famalicao1–42
Rio Ave2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L27 Apr 25A · Guimaraes0–32
- D21 Sep 24H · Estoril2–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
AVS12 games · scored 8 · conceded 29
1
5
0-15
1
5
16-30
2
5
31-45
5
46-60
1
6
61-75
3
3
76-90
Rio Ave12 games · scored 15 · conceded 20
2
2
0-15
3
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
5
61-75
3
5
76-90
AVS10 games · scored 7 · conceded 24
1
4
0-15
1
5
16-30
2
4
31-45
3
46-60
1
5
61-75
2
3
76-90
Rio Ave10 games · scored 11 · conceded 16
1
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
4
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
