AVS
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Sporting CP were clear favourites.
Sporting CP were the stronger side on L90 Strength (82 vs 11). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for AVS. AVS had 9 days of rest, Sporting CP 7.1 and had to travel.
Rest days9 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
AVS7%
Draw16%
Sporting CP77%
AVS6%
Draw14%
Sporting CP80%
AVS7%
Draw16%
Sporting CP77%
AVS5%
Draw13%
Sporting CP82%
AVS7%
Draw15%
Sporting CP77%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 42%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vila das Aves)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalPedro Ramalho
- Cards per match 6.5
- Penalties per match 0.47
- Matches 17
Team strength
AVS
Sporting CP
11
L90 StrengthIn forecast
82
16
Current StrengthIn forecast
83
17
AttackIn forecast
75
21
DefenceIn forecast
81
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSporting CP
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AVSSporting CP
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.55
2.13
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.66
0.80
xGVia Att/Def
1.97
1.73
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.71
-0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.58
43%
Scored inContext
100%
13%
Clean sheetsContext
48%
10.10
ShotsContext
17.38
2.79
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.59
27%
On target shareContext
38%
5.45
Shots in the boxContext
11.59
54%
Box shareContext
66%
7%
ConversionContext
15%
2.05
OffsidesContext
1.89
14.53
Shots allowedContext
8.21
5.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.07
3.45
BlocksContext
2.56
3.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.56
63%
Save rateContext
79%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
62%
300
PassesContext
530
222
Accurate passesContext
465
74%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.60
Team ratingContext
7.07
13.43
FoulsContext
12.41
10.80
Fouls sufferedContext
13.66
2.13
Yellow cardsContext
2.31
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
0.63
xGVia Att/Def
1.48
1.65
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.99
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.52
40%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
9.90
ShotsContext
15.50
2.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.70
24%
On target shareContext
37%
4.60
Shots in the boxContext
10.40
49%
Box shareContext
68%
7%
ConversionContext
13%
2.13
OffsidesContext
1.75
15.20
Shots allowedContext
9.80
5.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.40
3.90
BlocksContext
2.75
3.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.40
77%
Save rateContext
71%
37%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
269
PassesContext
525
194
Accurate passesContext
460
72%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.94
13.60
FoulsContext
12.10
8.60
Fouls sufferedContext
13.10
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
AVS
Rest9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Sporting CP
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| AVS |
Sporting CP |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 17 Apr | 7.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 19 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | — | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.8 | 3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
AVS
Confirmed XI
1Adriel
12Leonardo Rivas
3Paulo Vitor
42C. Devenish
97Mateus Pivô
8Pedro Lima
70Roni
23Gustavo Mendonça
21G. Neiva
20Diego Duarte
11B. Akinsola
Sporting CP
Confirmed XI
1Rui Silva(G)
91Ricardo Mangas
6Z. Debast
26O. Diomande
13G. Vagiannidis
14G. Kochorashvili
5H. Morita
8Pote
17Trincão
7G. Quenda
90Rafael Nel
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences AVS
Absences are shown before kick-off
Sporting CP
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- AVS+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Sporting CP+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
AVS · Home
0.53points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-5-9
- Scored
- 0.73
- Conceded
- 1.67
Sporting CP · Away
2.47points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 11-4-0
- Scored
- 2.20
- Conceded
- 0.73
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | AVS | Sporting CP |
|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave | D 2–2 AL 1–2 H | W 4–0 H |
| Guimaraes | D 1–1 HL 0–4 A | W 4–1 A |
| GIL Vicente | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Tondela | D 0–0 AD 2–2 H | W 3–0 A |
| Santa Clara | L 0–1 HL 0–2 A | W 4–2 HW 2–1 A |
| Alverca | D 0–0 AL 1–3 H | W 4–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Estrela | D 0–0 HL 0–3 A | W 1–0 AW 4–0 H |
| Benfica | L 0–3 AL 0–3 H | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Estoril | W 3–0 HL 1–3 A | W 3–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Famalicao | L 1–3 AL 0–1 H | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A |
| SC Braga | L 0–4 HD 2–2 A | D 2–2 AD 1–1 H |
| Casa Pia | D 3–3 AL 0–2 H | W 3–0 HW 2–0 A |
| Arouca | L 0–1 HL 1–3 A | W 2–1 AW 6–0 H |
| Moreirense | L 0–2 H | W 3–0 AW 3–0 H |
| FC Porto | L 0–2 A | D 1–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Nacional | D 2–2 H | W 2–1 HW 4–1 A |
| Points | 13 of 87 · 0.45 per game | 68 of 84 · 2.43 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 AVS wins1 draws2 Sporting CP wins
Goals per game0.67 – 3.67
Over 2.5100%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets0% · 67%
- 13 Dec 2025Sporting CP6–0AVS
- 23 Feb 2025AVS2–2Sporting CP
- 22 Sep 2024Sporting CP3–0AVS
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| AVS | Sporting CP | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 2.55 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.13 | 0.66 | |
| Match goals | 2.83 | 3.21 | 3.00 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 69% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 31% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 52% | 42% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 48% | |
| Failed to score | 57% | 0% | |
| Games | 30 | 29 |
| AVS | Sporting CP | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 3.10 | 3.00 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 70% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% | 42% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| AVS | Sporting CP | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.12 | 6.58 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.54 | 3.19 | |
| Match total | 9.66 | 9.77 | 9.34 |
| Over 8.5 | 65% 17/26 | 73% 19/26 | |
| Over 9.5 | 46% 12/26 | 54% 14/26 | |
| Over 10.5 | 46% 12/26 | 38% 10/26 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.41 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.76 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 5.17 | 5.07 |
| Over 3.5 | 53% 16/30 | 62% 18/29 | |
| Over 4.5 | 47% 14/30 | 55% 16/29 | |
| AVS | Sporting CP | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.67 | 5.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.33 | 4.60 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 10.50 | 9.34 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.20 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 4.10 | 5.07 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Pedro Ramalho Portugal · 17 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards6.12league 4.81
Red cards0.35league 0.23
Cards 5+82%league 57%
Fouls28.1league 26.8
Penalties0.47league 0.43
Home wins29%league 41%
AVS4 with this referee
Record0-3-1
Cards · opp.3.5 · 3.3
Pens for · against2 · 1
- D9 Nov 25H · GIL Vicente1–11
- L15 Aug 25H · Casa Pia0–24
- D19 Apr 25H · Casa Pia1–17
- D28 Dec 24H · Estrela1–12
Sporting CPNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
AVS30 games · scored 21 · conceded 64
1
10
0-15
2
10
16-30
5
11
31-45
3
12
46-60
4
12
61-75
6
9
76-90
Sporting CP29 games · scored 74 · conceded 19
5
3
0-15
9
3
16-30
17
1
31-45
12
2
46-60
12
2
61-75
19
8
76-90
AVS10 games · scored 7 · conceded 13
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
1
2
76-90
Sporting CP10 games · scored 20 · conceded 11
1
1
0-15
4
1
16-30
4
3
31-45
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
6
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
