AZ Alkmaar
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
AZ Alkmaar64.9%fair odds 1.54
Draw20.6%fair odds 4.86
ADO Den Haag14.5%fair odds 6.88
Expected goals2.14 – 0.92total 3.06
Likeliest score2–010.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
ADO Den Haag
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| AZ Alkmaar ↓ · ADO Den Haag → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 7.7 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are AZ Alkmaar goals, columns ADO Den Haag goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–010.8%9.29
- 2–19.9%10.13
- 1–19.7%10.29
- 1–09.6%10.45
- 3–07.7%13.02
- 3–17.0%14.19
- 0–05.2%19.28
- 2–24.5%22.07
- 1–24.2%23.62
- 4–04.1%24.34
Winning margin
21.9%
AZ Alkmaar by 3+
fair 4.57
19.8%
AZ Alkmaar by 2
fair 5.05
23.3%
AZ Alkmaar by 1
fair 4.30
20.6%
Draw
fair 4.86
9.7%
ADO Den Haag by 1
fair 10.32
3.6%
ADO Den Haag by 2
fair 27.50
1.2%
ADO Den Haag by 3+
fair 82.53
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
13%1
22%2
22%3
17%4
19%5+
AZ Alkmaar goals
12%0
25%1
27%2
19%3
17%4+
ADO Den Haag goals
40%0
37%1
17%2
5%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar win | 64.9% | 64.4% | +0.6 pp |
| Draw | 20.6% | 20.9% | -0.3 pp |
| ADO Den Haag win | 14.5% | 14.8% | -0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 59.0% | 58.0% | +1.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 53.5% | 52.9% | +0.5 pp |
| Expected goals AZ Alkmaar | 2.14 | 2.10 | +0.04 |
| Expected goals ADO Den Haag | 0.92 | 0.91 | +0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- AZ Alkmaar win64.9%1.54
- Draw20.6%4.86
- ADO Den Haag win14.5%6.88
- Double chance AZ Alkmaar or draw85.5%1.17
- Double chance AZ Alkmaar or ADO Den Haag79.4%1.26
- Double chance ADO Den Haag or draw35.1%2.85
- Draw no bet AZ Alkmaar81.7%1.22
- Draw no bet ADO Den Haag18.3%5.46
Goals
- Over 0.594.8%1.05
- Over 1.581.4%1.23
- Over 2.559.0%1.70
- Over 3.536.6%2.73
- Over 4.519.5%5.14
- Under 1.518.6%5.38
- Under 2.541.0%2.44
- Under 3.563.4%1.58
Both teams to score
- Yes53.5%1.87
- No46.5%2.15
- Yes and over 2.543.8%2.28
- AZ Alkmaar win and yes30.1%3.32
- Draw and yes15.4%6.51
- ADO Den Haag win and yes8.0%12.55
Team goals
- AZ Alkmaar over 0.588.2%1.13
- AZ Alkmaar over 1.563.1%1.59
- AZ Alkmaar over 2.536.1%2.77
- ADO Den Haag over 0.560.1%1.67
- ADO Den Haag over 1.523.4%4.27
- ADO Den Haag over 2.56.6%15.20
- AZ Alkmaar clean sheet39.9%2.50
- ADO Den Haag clean sheet11.8%8.50
- AZ Alkmaar win to nil34.8%2.88
- ADO Den Haag win to nil6.6%15.21
Handicap
- AZ Alkmaar −1.541.6%2.40
- AZ Alkmaar −2.521.9%4.57
- ADO Den Haag +1.558.4%1.71
- ADO Den Haag +2.578.1%1.28
- ADO Den Haag −1.54.8%20.63
- AZ Alkmaar +1.595.2%1.05
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored4
Favourite won25.0%
Avg chance given to result28.2%
1X2 Brier0.915
Over 2.5 called right100.0%
BTTS called right50.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40–50% | 1 | 47.6% | 0.0% |
| 50–60% | 2 | 56.2% | 50.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 84.4% | 0.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 4 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 4 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.