AZ Alkmaar
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
AZ Alkmaar63.9%fair odds 1.56
Draw20.9%fair odds 4.78
Excelsior15.2%fair odds 6.59
Expected goals2.11 – 0.93total 3.04
Likeliest score2–010.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Excelsior
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| AZ Alkmaar ↓ · Excelsior → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are AZ Alkmaar goals, columns Excelsior goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–010.6%9.43
- 2–19.9%10.10
- 1–19.9%10.11
- 1–09.6%10.46
- 3–07.5%13.40
- 3–17.0%14.35
- 0–05.3%19.00
- 2–24.6%21.62
- 1–24.4%22.81
- 0–14.0%25.30
Winning margin
21.1%
AZ Alkmaar by 3+
fair 4.75
19.5%
AZ Alkmaar by 2
fair 5.12
23.3%
AZ Alkmaar by 1
fair 4.29
20.9%
Draw
fair 4.78
10.0%
Excelsior by 1
fair 9.96
3.8%
Excelsior by 2
fair 26.14
1.3%
Excelsior by 3+
fair 76.81
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
19%5+
AZ Alkmaar goals
12%0
26%1
27%2
19%3
16%4+
Excelsior goals
39%0
37%1
17%2
5%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar win | 63.9% | 62.5% | +1.5 pp |
| Draw | 20.9% | 21.9% | -1.0 pp |
| Excelsior win | 15.2% | 15.6% | -0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 58.7% | 55.3% | +3.4 pp |
| Both teams score | 53.8% | 51.7% | +2.1 pp |
| Expected goals AZ Alkmaar | 2.11 | 2.00 | +0.11 |
| Expected goals Excelsior | 0.93 | 0.90 | +0.04 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- AZ Alkmaar win63.9%1.56
- Draw20.9%4.78
- Excelsior win15.2%6.59
- Double chance AZ Alkmaar or draw84.8%1.18
- Double chance AZ Alkmaar or Excelsior79.1%1.26
- Double chance Excelsior or draw36.1%2.77
- Draw no bet AZ Alkmaar80.8%1.24
- Draw no bet Excelsior19.2%5.21
Goals
- Over 0.594.7%1.06
- Over 1.581.2%1.23
- Over 2.558.7%1.71
- Over 3.536.3%2.76
- Over 4.519.2%5.21
- Under 1.518.8%5.33
- Under 2.541.3%2.42
- Under 3.563.7%1.57
Both teams to score
- Yes53.8%1.86
- No46.2%2.17
- Yes and over 2.543.9%2.28
- AZ Alkmaar win and yes29.9%3.35
- Draw and yes15.7%6.39
- Excelsior win and yes8.3%12.04
Team goals
- AZ Alkmaar over 0.587.9%1.14
- AZ Alkmaar over 1.562.3%1.61
- AZ Alkmaar over 2.535.3%2.83
- Excelsior over 0.560.7%1.65
- Excelsior over 1.524.0%4.17
- Excelsior over 2.56.9%14.59
- AZ Alkmaar clean sheet39.3%2.54
- Excelsior clean sheet12.1%8.25
- AZ Alkmaar win to nil34.0%2.94
- Excelsior win to nil6.9%14.57
Handicap
- AZ Alkmaar −1.540.6%2.46
- AZ Alkmaar −2.521.1%4.75
- Excelsior +1.559.4%1.68
- Excelsior +2.578.9%1.27
- Excelsior −1.55.1%19.50
- AZ Alkmaar +1.594.9%1.05
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored169
Favourite won51.5%
Avg chance given to result41.6%
1X2 Brier0.577
Over 2.5 called right63.9%
BTTS called right61.5%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 32 | 38.0% | 31.3% |
| 40–50% | 61 | 45.2% | 45.9% |
| 50–60% | 39 | 55.2% | 51.3% |
| 60–70% | 19 | 64.0% | 63.2% |
| 70–80% | 12 | 74.5% | 91.7% |
| 80%+ | 6 | 84.3% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 146 of 169 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5801 | 0.5731 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.3% | 42.8% |
| Favourite won | 50.7% | 53.4% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 146 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 169 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.