AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior – 21 Jan 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Wed, Jan 21 · 17:45 AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar

AZ Alkmaar 8th · 28 pts · 18 played LDLWL

1–1Full time

Excelsior 14th · 20 pts · 18 played WLWLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

AZ Alkmaar were clear favourites.

AZ Alkmaar were the stronger side on L90 Strength (42 vs 16). AZ Alkmaar had 4 days of rest, Excelsior 3.9 and had to travel 81 km.

Away travel81 kmRest days4 · 3.9Matches / 14d2 · 2

AZ Alkmaar64%

Draw21%

Excelsior15%

Expected goals 2.11 – 0.93

AZ Alkmaar63%

Draw22%

Excelsior15%

Expected goals 2.02 – 0.89

AZ Alkmaar65%

Draw21%

Excelsior15%

Expected goals 2.13 – 0.92

AZ Alkmaar56%

Draw23%

Excelsior20%

Expected goals 1.88 – 1.05

AZ Alkmaar62%

Draw22%

Excelsior16%

Expected goals 2.00 – 0.90

Over 2.5 59% Both score 54% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Alkmaar)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsAlex Bos

Cards per match 3.7
Penalties per match 0.34
Matches 32

Team strength

AZ Alkmaar

Excelsior

42 L90 StrengthIn forecast 16

46 Current StrengthIn forecast 21

52 AttackIn forecast 21

49 DefenceIn forecast 18

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

AZ Alkmaar

Attack—

Defense risk—

Excelsior

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

AZ Alkmaar

Excelsior

1.83 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.06

1.72 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.89

1.81 xGVia Att/Def 1.26

1.27 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.96

+0.02 Goals minus xGContext -0.20

94% Scored inContext 78%

22% Clean sheetsContext 17%

16.22 ShotsContext 11.67

6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

37% On target shareContext 34%

10.78 Shots in the boxContext 7.56

65% Box shareContext 63%

11% ConversionContext 9%

1.55 OffsidesContext 1.25

12.33 Shots allowedContext 16.17

4.72 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.28

3.65 BlocksContext 4.78

3.29 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.28

68% Save rateContext 68%

54% PossessionIn forecast 46%

452 PassesContext 380

376 Accurate passesContext 297

83% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.88 Team ratingContext 6.75

10.22 FoulsContext 13.00

10.78 Fouls sufferedContext 8.83

2.28 Yellow cardsContext 1.56

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.11

This league season, per match · 18 and 18 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

1.61 xGVia Att/Def 1.31

1.10 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.82

-0.21 Goals minus xGContext -0.11

80% Scored inContext 80%

40% Clean sheetsContext 20%

15.20 ShotsContext 11.50

5.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.10

37% On target shareContext 36%

10.30 Shots in the boxContext 7.80

64% Box shareContext 65%

9% ConversionContext 10%

1.75 OffsidesContext 1.43

9.90 Shots allowedContext 14.70

3.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.20

3.00 BlocksContext 4.60

2.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50

58% Save rateContext 67%

57% PossessionIn forecast 48%

478 PassesContext 406

404 Accurate passesContext 323

85% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.83 Team ratingContext 6.80

9.10 FoulsContext 12.10

11.40 Fouls sufferedContext 9.00

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

AZ Alkmaar

Rest4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km184 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Excelsior

Rest3.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel81 km174 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	AZ Alkmaar	Excelsior
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4Eredivisie 2025-2026, 17 Jan	3.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 17 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	81 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	184 km	174 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 2	1 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	3.7	3.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

AZ Alkmaar Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

41J. Zoet(G)

34M. de Wit 5Alexandre Penetra 3W. Goes 22Elijah Dijkstra

20Kasper Boogaard 6P. Koopmeiners

17I. Jensen 26K. Smit 7Weslley Patati

9T. Parrott

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Excelsior Confirmed XI

4-4-2

1S. van Gassel(G)

12A. Zagré 3R. Meissen 4C. Widell 2Ilias Bronkhorst

7E. Hansson 14L. Schouten 23I. Yegoian 30D. Sanches Fernandes

10N. Naujoks 33Jerolldino Bergraaf

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

AZ Alkmaar Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Excelsior Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

AZ Alkmaar-0.7 pp
Draw+0.2 pp
Excelsior+0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

AZ Alkmaar · Home 1.88points per game · 8 home games

W-D-L: 4-3-1
Scored: 2.38
Conceded: 1.88

Excelsior · Away 0.88points per game · 8 away games

W-D-L: 2-1-5
Scored: 1.13
Conceded: 2.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	AZ Alkmaar	Excelsior
PEC Zwolle	L 1–3 AD 2–2 H	W 2–1 H
FC Volendam	W 1–0 HD 2–2 A	W 2–1 A
Fortuna Sittard	L 3–4 A	W 1–0 H
GO Ahead Eagles	D 2–2 H	L 0–2 A
Twente	L 0–1 A	W 1–0 H
Heerenveen	L 1–3 A	L 1–2 A
PSV Eindhoven	L 1–5 H	L 1–5 AL 1–2 H
Sparta Rotterdam	W 1–0 A	L 0–1 H
Utrecht	W 4–1 H	L 1–4 A
Ajax	W 2–0 A	W 2–1 A
Telstar	W 2–1 H	D 2–2 HD 2–2 A
NEC Nijmegen	L 1–2 A	L 0–5 A
Feyenoord	D 3–3 H	L 1–2 H
Heracles	W 2–1 A	L 1–2 H
NAC Breda	W 1–0 A	W 1–0 H
Groningen	W 4–1 H	L 0–2 H
Points	28 of 54 · 1.56 per game	20 of 54 · 1.11 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 AZ Alkmaar wins1 draws0 Excelsior wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.00 Over 2.50% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

4 Nov 2023Excelsior1–1AZ Alkmaar

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	AZ Alkmaar	Excelsior	Forecast
Scored per game	1.83	1.06
Conceded per game	1.72	1.89
Match goals	3.56	2.94	3.04
Over 1.5	78%	78%
Over 2.5	72%	67%	59%
Over 3.5	56%	28%
Both teams scored	72%	61%	54%
Clean sheets	22%	17%
Failed to score	6%	22%
Games	18	18

	AZ Alkmaar	Excelsior	Forecast
Scored per game	1.60	1.20
Conceded per game	1.90	1.70
Match goals	3.50	2.90	3.04
Over 1.5	70%	80%
Over 2.5	60%	60%	59%
Over 3.5	60%	30%
Both teams scored	60%	60%	54%
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Failed to score	10%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	AZ Alkmaar	Excelsior	League
Corners
Corners won	6.33	4.00
Corners conceded	4.11	5.28
Match total	10.44	9.28	10.15
Over 8.5	78% 14/18	61% 11/18
Over 9.5	50% 9/18	39% 7/18
Over 10.5	33% 6/18	28% 5/18
Cards
Cards	2.33	1.72
Opponent cards	1.61	1.33
Match total	3.94	3.05	3.58
Over 3.5	50% 9/18	33% 6/18
Over 4.5	39% 7/18	28% 5/18

	AZ Alkmaar	Excelsior	League
Corners
Corners won	6.60	4.30
Corners conceded	4.50	5.60
Match total	11.10	9.90	10.15
Over 8.5	90% 9/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.80	1.80
Opponent cards	1.90	1.40
Match total	3.70	3.20	3.58
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Alex Bos Netherlands · 32 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.34league 3.36

Red cards0.31league 0.21

Cards 5+25%league 31%

Fouls22.8league 21.6

Penalties0.34league 0.28

Home wins44%league 45%

AZ Alkmaar3 with this referee

Record1-1-1 Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 2

L2 Mar 25A · Heerenveen1–33
D10 Feb 24A · Almere City FC0–01
W20 Aug 23A · Waalwijk3–11

Excelsior3 with this referee

Record1-1-1 Cards · opp.0.7 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W19 Oct 25H · Fortuna Sittard1–00
D16 Dec 23H · GO Ahead Eagles1–10
L29 Oct 23A · FC Volendam1–32

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.