AZ Alkmaar
Attack—
Defense risk—
AZ Alkmaar
7th · 25 pts · 16 played
LLLDL
First leg2–2
1–0Full time
FC Volendam
16th · 14 pts · 17 played
DLLLL
Our take
AZ Alkmaar were clear favourites.
AZ Alkmaar were the stronger side on L90 Strength (44 vs 12). AZ Alkmaar usually keep the ball (56% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. AZ Alkmaar had 20 days of rest, FC Volendam 20 and had to travel 27 km.
Away travel27 kmRest days20 · 20Matches / 14d0 · 0
AZ Alkmaar71%
Draw18%
FC Volendam11%
AZ Alkmaar69%
Draw19%
FC Volendam12%
AZ Alkmaar71%
Draw18%
FC Volendam11%
AZ Alkmaar64%
Draw21%
FC Volendam15%
AZ Alkmaar69%
Draw19%
FC Volendam12%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Alkmaar)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsAllard Lindhout
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.21
- Matches 68
Team strength
AZ AlkmaarFC Volendam
44
L90 StrengthIn forecast
12
46
Current StrengthIn forecast
14
52
AttackIn forecast
14
49
DefenceIn forecast
19
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC Volendam
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AZ AlkmaarFC Volendam
1.94
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.12
1.75
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.82
1.85
xGVia Att/Def
1.01
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.67
+0.09
Goals minus xGContext
+0.11
94%
Scored inContext
71%
19%
Clean sheetsContext
6%
16.50
ShotsContext
10.29
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.59
36%
On target shareContext
35%
11.13
Shots in the boxContext
6.24
66%
Box shareContext
59%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
1.50
OffsidesContext
1.43
12.88
Shots allowedContext
18.12
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.94
3.93
BlocksContext
5.71
3.53
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.24
69%
Save rateContext
71%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
456
PassesContext
354
381
Accurate passesContext
285
84%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.80
10.13
FoulsContext
9.06
10.94
Fouls sufferedContext
11.65
2.44
Yellow cardsContext
1.24
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.67
xGVia Att/Def
1.03
1.37
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.92
-0.27
Goals minus xGContext
-0.03
80%
Scored inContext
60%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
15.20
ShotsContext
9.20
6.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.40
41%
On target shareContext
37%
10.20
Shots in the boxContext
5.60
63%
Box shareContext
59%
9%
ConversionContext
11%
1.80
OffsidesContext
1.25
11.30
Shots allowedContext
19.40
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.90
3.60
BlocksContext
6.80
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
61%
Save rateContext
68%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
491
PassesContext
358
417
Accurate passesContext
292
85%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.81
9.60
FoulsContext
8.10
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.20
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
AZ Alkmaar
Rest20 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
FC Volendam
Rest20 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel27 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| AZ Alkmaar |
FC Volendam |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 20Eredivisie 2025-2026, 21 Dec | 20Eredivisie 2025-2026, 21 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 27 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 1 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
AZ Alkmaar
Confirmed XI
1R. Owusu-Oduro(G)
15Mateo Chávez
5Alexandre Penetra
3W. Goes
34M. de Wit
6P. Koopmeiners
26K. Smit
10S. Mijnans
17I. Jensen
9T. Parrott
7Weslley Patati
FC Volendam
Confirmed XI
1K. van Oevelen(G)
32Y. Leliendal
20N. Verschuren
3M. Amevor
5P. Ugwu
18N. Bukala
4X. Mbuyamba
8G. Yah
11A. Oehlers
9H. Veerman
40R. van Cruijsen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences AZ Alkmaar
Absences are shown before kick-off
FC Volendam
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- AZ Alkmaar+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- FC Volendam+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
AZ Alkmaar · Home
1.71points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-1
- Scored
- 2.57
- Conceded
- 2.14
FC Volendam · Away
0.25points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-6
- Scored
- 0.63
- Conceded
- 2.38
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 15 this season
| Opponent | AZ Alkmaar | FC Volendam |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Sittard | L 3–4 A | L 0–1 A |
| GO Ahead Eagles | D 2–2 H | L 0–3 A |
| Twente | L 0–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Heerenveen | L 1–3 A | D 1–1 A |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 1–5 H | L 0–3 A |
| Sparta Rotterdam | W 1–0 A | L 0–1 H |
| Utrecht | W 4–1 H | L 1–3 A |
| Ajax | W 2–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Telstar | W 2–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| NEC Nijmegen | L 1–2 A | L 2–3 H |
| PEC Zwolle | D 2–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| Feyenoord | D 3–3 H | L 1–3 A |
| Heracles | W 2–1 A | W 3–0 H |
| NAC Breda | W 1–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| Groningen | W 4–1 H | L 0–3 A |
| Points | 24 of 45 · 1.60 per game | 13 of 45 · 0.87 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 AZ Alkmaar wins1 draws0 FC Volendam wins
Goals per game2.50 – 1.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 17 Aug 2025FC Volendam2–2AZ Alkmaar
- 26 Nov 2023AZ Alkmaar3–0FC Volendam
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| AZ Alkmaar | FC Volendam | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.94 | 1.12 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.75 | 1.82 | |
| Match goals | 3.69 | 2.94 | 3.16 |
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 71% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 56% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 65% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 6% | |
| Failed to score | 6% | 29% | |
| Games | 16 | 17 |
| AZ Alkmaar | FC Volendam | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 2.90 | 3.16 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 70% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| AZ Alkmaar | FC Volendam | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.25 | 3.94 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.31 | 6.81 | |
| Match total | 10.56 | 10.75 | 10.27 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 12/16 | 69% 11/16 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 8/16 | 63% 10/16 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 6/16 | 50% 8/16 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.29 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.69 | 2.06 | |
| Match total | 4.19 | 3.35 | 3.61 |
| Over 3.5 | 56% 9/16 | 41% 7/17 | |
| Over 4.5 | 44% 7/16 | 35% 6/17 | |
| AZ Alkmaar | FC Volendam | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.20 | 3.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.70 | 7.78 | |
| Match total | 10.90 | 11.67 | 10.27 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 3.10 | 3.61 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Allard Lindhout Netherlands · 68 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.65league 3.38
Red cards0.21league 0.22
Cards 5+35%league 33%
Fouls20.0league 21.8
Penalties0.21league 0.31
Home wins35%league 47%
AZ Alkmaar5 with this referee
Record2-1-2
Cards · opp.1.2 · 0.8
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- L23 Nov 25A · Heerenveen1–30
- W14 May 25A · Twente3–22
- L19 Oct 24H · PSV Eindhoven1–21
- D20 Jan 24H · PEC Zwolle2–22
- W8 Oct 23A · Ajax2–11
FC Volendam3 with this referee
Record1-0-2
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- L4 Feb 24A · Utrecht2–41
- W16 Dec 23A · Heerenveen2–12
- L30 Sep 23A · PSV Eindhoven1–32
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
AZ Alkmaar16 games · scored 31 · conceded 28
4
5
0-15
6
3
16-30
9
6
31-45
4
3
46-60
3
5
61-75
5
6
76-90
FC Volendam17 games · scored 19 · conceded 31
1
6
0-15
2
4
16-30
4
6
31-45
4
5
46-60
4
4
61-75
4
6
76-90
AZ Alkmaar10 games · scored 14 · conceded 18
4
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
4
31-45
2
2
46-60
4
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
FC Volendam10 games · scored 10 · conceded 19
2
0-15
3
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
4
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
