AZ Alkmaar
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Feyenoord were the stronger side on L90 Strength (64 vs 54). AZ Alkmaar had 7.1 days of rest, Feyenoord 3.9 and had to travel 81 km.
Away travel81 kmRest days7.1 · 3.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
AZ Alkmaar37%
Draw27%
Feyenoord36%
AZ Alkmaar37%
Draw27%
Feyenoord35%
AZ Alkmaar38%
Draw26%
Feyenoord36%
AZ Alkmaar30%
Draw26%
Feyenoord44%
AZ Alkmaar37%
Draw27%
Feyenoord36%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Alkmaar)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsDanny Makkelie
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.21
- Matches 85
Team strength
AZ Alkmaar
Feyenoord
54
L90 StrengthIn forecast
64
47
Current StrengthIn forecast
59
52
AttackIn forecast
76
49
DefenceIn forecast
61
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFeyenoord
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AZ AlkmaarFeyenoord
2.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.20
2.00
xGVia Att/Def
1.98
1.14
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.67
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.22
100%
Scored inContext
100%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
80%
19.75
ShotsContext
17.40
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.60
30%
On target shareContext
38%
11.75
Shots in the boxContext
12.20
62%
Box shareContext
72%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
1.67
OffsidesContext
2.50
12.00
Shots allowedContext
7.60
5.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
1.67
2.67
BlocksContext
2.80
4.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.33
78%
Save rateContext
80%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
461
PassesContext
433
393
Accurate passesContext
361
85%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.01
Team ratingContext
7.19
11.25
FoulsContext
9.60
10.25
Fouls sufferedContext
10.80
3.75
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
2.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.90
xGVia Att/Def
1.92
1.11
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.01
+0.40
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
100%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
15.50
ShotsContext
15.80
5.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.70
37%
On target shareContext
36%
10.00
Shots in the boxContext
10.90
65%
Box shareContext
70%
15%
ConversionContext
12%
2.13
OffsidesContext
2.40
12.30
Shots allowedContext
9.70
4.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.63
4.11
BlocksContext
2.60
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.25
79%
Save rateContext
62%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
431
PassesContext
403
360
Accurate passesContext
332
84%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.12
Team ratingContext
7.06
11.10
FoulsContext
10.00
10.80
Fouls sufferedContext
12.30
2.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
AZ Alkmaar
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km266 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Feyenoord
Rest3.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel81 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| AZ Alkmaar |
Feyenoord |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 14 Sep | 3.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 17 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 81 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 266 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.1 | 3.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
AZ Alkmaar
Confirmed XI
1R. Owusu-Oduro(G)
34M. de Wit
5Alexandre Penetra
3W. Goes
30D. Kasius
10S. Mijnans
8J. Clasie
26K. Smit
27Ro-Zangelo Daal
35M. Meerdink
11I. Sadiq
Feyenoord
Confirmed XI
22T. Wellenreuther(G)
15J. Bos
4T. Watanabe
21A. Ahmedhodžić
26G. Read
40L. Valente
8Q. Timber
32Aymen Sliti
14S. Steijn
23A. Hadj Moussa
9A. Ueda
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences AZ Alkmaar
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Feyenoord
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- AZ Alkmaar-0.4 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Feyenoord+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
AZ Alkmaar · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 4.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Feyenoord · Away
3.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 0.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | AZ Alkmaar | Feyenoord |
|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda | W 1–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
0 AZ Alkmaar wins0 draws4 Feyenoord wins
Goals per game0.50 – 1.50
Over 2.525%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets0% · 75%
- 5 Apr 2025AZ Alkmaar0–1Feyenoord
- 2 Nov 2024Feyenoord3–2AZ Alkmaar
- 4 Feb 2024AZ Alkmaar0–1Feyenoord
- 12 Nov 2023Feyenoord1–0AZ Alkmaar
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| AZ Alkmaar | Feyenoord | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.25 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.25 | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 40% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 20% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 80% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 4 | 5 |
| AZ Alkmaar | Feyenoord | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.25 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.25 | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 40% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 20% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 80% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 4 | 5 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| AZ Alkmaar | Feyenoord | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.50 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.75 | 3.25 | |
| Match total | 9.25 | 9.25 | 10.06 |
| Over 8.5 | 25% 1/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 1/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 1/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.75 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.25 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 2.80 | 3.64 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 4/4 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 2/4 | 20% 1/5 | |
| AZ Alkmaar | Feyenoord | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.10 | 4.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.80 | 4.44 | |
| Match total | 8.90 | 9.33 | 10.06 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.10 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 2.70 | 3.64 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Danny Makkelie Netherlands · 85 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.41league 3.42
Red cards0.13league 0.21
Cards 5+28%league 37%
Fouls21.5league 22.6
Penalties0.21league 0.15
Home wins42%league 48%
AZ Alkmaar6 with this referee
Record1-2-3
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.8
Pens for · against1 · 1
- D11 Jan 25A · PSV Eindhoven2–22
- L29 Sep 24H · Utrecht1–21
- L4 Feb 24H · Feyenoord0–12
- L12 Nov 23A · Feyenoord0–11
- D28 Sep 23H · Heracles1–11
Feyenoord10 with this referee
Record3-3-4
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.1
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds1
- L11 May 25H · PSV Eindhoven2–33
- L2 Feb 25A · Ajax1–22
- D18 Jan 25A · Willem II1–10
- W14 Dec 24H · Heracles5–20
- L30 Oct 24H · Ajax0–24
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
AZ Alkmaar4 games · scored 9 · conceded 4
2
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
3
76-90
Feyenoord5 games · scored 11 · conceded 1
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
3
31-45
2
46-60
2
61-75
1
76-90
AZ Alkmaar10 games · scored 23 · conceded 8
5
2
0-15
3
3
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
4
1
61-75
6
76-90
Feyenoord10 games · scored 19 · conceded 12
3
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
5
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
