AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva – 15 Oct 2026

UEFA Europa League Matchday 2 Thu, Oct 15 · 17:45 AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar

AZ Alkmaar 25th · 0 pts · 1 played L

2–1Full time

Hapoel Beer Sheva 20th · 1 pts · 1 played D

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

AZ Alkmaar were clear favourites.

AZ Alkmaar were the stronger side on L90 Strength (47 vs 28). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for AZ Alkmaar. AZ Alkmaar were without K. Smit. AZ Alkmaar had 5 days of rest, Hapoel Beer Sheva 28.9 and had to travel 3,386 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel3,386 kmRest days5 · 28.9Matches / 14d1 · 0

AZ Alkmaar61%

Draw20%

Hapoel Beer Sheva20%

Expected goals 2.21 – 1.18

AZ Alkmaar56%

Draw23%

Hapoel Beer Sheva21%

Expected goals 1.80 – 0.99

AZ Alkmaar61%

Draw20%

Hapoel Beer Sheva19%

Expected goals 2.22 – 1.17

AZ Alkmaar53%

Draw22%

Hapoel Beer Sheva26%

Expected goals 1.98 – 1.33

AZ Alkmaar60%

Draw21%

Hapoel Beer Sheva19%

Expected goals 2.08 – 1.09

Over 2.5 66% Both score 62% Likeliest score 2–1

Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Alkmaar)

18°COvercast

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 16 km/h
Humidity 76%

RefereeRadoslav Gidzhenov

Cards per match 5.1
Penalties per match 0.08
Matches 12

Team strength

AZ Alkmaar

Hapoel Beer Sheva

47 L90 StrengthIn forecast 28

47 Current StrengthIn forecast 28

52 AttackIn forecast 26

49 DefenceIn forecast 31

41 Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

AZ Alkmaar

Attack0%

Defense risk+1%

Hapoel Beer Sheva

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

AZ Alkmaar

Hapoel Beer Sheva

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

2.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

2.15 xGVia Att/Def —

1.48 xG allowedVia Att/Def —

-0.05 Goals minus xGContext —

80% Scored inContext 80%

30% Clean sheetsContext 50%

17.40 ShotsContext 15.67

6.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.67

39% On target shareContext 30%

11.70 Shots in the boxContext 10.67

68% Box shareContext 67%

12% ConversionContext 9%

2.29 OffsidesContext 2.67

10.60 Shots allowedContext 16.00

3.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.00

2.78 BlocksContext 3.00

2.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00

67% Save rateContext 67%

58% PossessionIn forecast 69%

519 PassesContext 622

445 Accurate passesContext 547

86% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.97 Team ratingContext 6.79

11.40 FoulsContext 10.00

11.20 Fouls sufferedContext 12.75

1.20 Yellow cardsContext 3.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

AZ Alkmaar WDLWL

Rest5 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km162 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 41 · 7 pts vs 8.1 for an average club · -2.0 vs expected

L10 OctA · Feyenoord0–21.0 xPts
W20 SepH · Telstar1–02.4 xPts
L16 SepA · Sunderland0–11.1 xPts
D11 SepH · Willem II1–12.7 xPts
W6 SepA · Heerenveen3–21.9 xPts

Hapoel Beer Sheva D

Rest28.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel3,386 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

Form 44 · 1 pts vs 1.7 for an average club · -0.4 vs expected

D16 SepH · Dinamo Zagreb0–01.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	AZ Alkmaar	Hapoel Beer Sheva
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5Eredivisie 2026-2027, 10 Oct	28.9UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 16 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	3,386 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	162 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 2	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	2.8	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

AZ Alkmaar Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

28J. De Busser(G)

34M. de Wit 29W. Hoedt 3W. Goes 2S. Maikuma

6P. Koopmeiners 21D. Kwakman

11Ro-Zangelo Daal 17V. Byskov 24A. Oufkir

18Bendegúz Kovács

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Hapoel Beer Sheva Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1O. Marciano(G)

5Pedro Amador 15I. Nachmias 44Djibril Diop 2G. Mizrahi

7E. Peretz 25Lucas Ventura 17A. Forson

9Z. Ahmed 66I. Zlatanović 45M. Abu Rumi

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

AZ Alkmaar Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals

Attack line −12.8% · Defence line −9.3% of weighted minutes

MID K. Smit Starter 6.98 Att −11.1% Def −6.4%
DEF J. Zoet Rotation 6.48 Def −2.8%
ATT J. Hornkamp Rotation 6.68 Att −1.7%
DEF H. Verhulst Depth 6.30 Def −0.1%

1 without recent minutes (no impact): S. Resink

Hapoel Beer Sheva Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals

Attack line −4.1% · Defence line −3.7% of weighted minutes

DEF M. Baltaxa Rotation 6.55 Def −3.7%
ATT Y. Malede Rotation 6.73 Att −4.1%

2 without recent minutes (no impact): D. Biton, Y. Stoyanov

Total impact vs full squads

AZ Alkmaar-0.5 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Hapoel Beer Sheva+0.4 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

AZ Alkmaar · Home No home games yet this season.

Hapoel Beer Sheva · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	AZ Alkmaar	Hapoel Beer Sheva	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	0.00
Conceded per game	1.00	0.00
Match goals	1.00	0.00	3.40
Over 1.5	0%	0%
Over 2.5	0%	0%	66%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	62%
Clean sheets	0%	100%
Failed to score	100%	100%
Games	1	1

	AZ Alkmaar	Hapoel Beer Sheva	Forecast
Scored per game	2.10	1.43
Conceded per game	1.20	1.14
Match goals	3.30	2.57	3.40
Over 1.5	80%	71%
Over 2.5	40%	43%	66%
Over 3.5	40%	14%
Both teams scored	50%	43%	62%
Clean sheets	30%	57%
Failed to score	20%	14%
Games	10	7

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	AZ Alkmaar	Hapoel Beer Sheva	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	6.00
Corners conceded	9.00	2.00
Match total	14.00	8.00	10.69
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	2.00	0.00
Opponent cards	3.00	0.00
Match total	5.00	0.00	3.38
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 4.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1

	AZ Alkmaar	Hapoel Beer Sheva	League
Corners
Corners won	7.60	3.75
Corners conceded	4.50	4.50
Match total	12.10	8.25	10.69
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	25% 1/4
Over 9.5	80% 8/10	25% 1/4
Over 10.5	80% 8/10	25% 1/4
Cards
Cards	1.20	3.80
Opponent cards	1.40	1.90
Match total	2.60	5.70	3.38
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Radoslav Gidzhenov 12 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.67league 3.28

Red cards0.42league 0.11

Cards 5+67%league 39%

Fouls21.2league 25.2

Penalties0.08league 0.17

Home wins58%league 44%

AZ Alkmaar

No previous matches with this referee.

Hapoel Beer Sheva

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.