AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda – 17 May 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sun, May 17 · 13:30 AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar

AZ Alkmaar 6th · 51 pts · 33 played WWDDD

First leg1–0 3–3Full time

NAC Breda 17th · 28 pts · 33 played DDLLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

AZ Alkmaar were clear favourites.

AZ Alkmaar were the stronger side on L90 Strength (43 vs 14). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for AZ Alkmaar. AZ Alkmaar had 6.9 days of rest, NAC Breda 6 and had to travel 116 km.

Away travel116 kmRest days6.9 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 1

AZ Alkmaar70%

Draw19%

NAC Breda11%

Expected goals 2.30 – 0.83

AZ Alkmaar67%

Draw20%

NAC Breda13%

Expected goals 2.13 – 0.84

AZ Alkmaar69%

Draw19%

NAC Breda12%

Expected goals 2.25 – 0.82

AZ Alkmaar63%

Draw21%

NAC Breda16%

Expected goals 2.05 – 0.92

AZ Alkmaar69%

Draw20%

NAC Breda12%

Expected goals 2.17 – 0.79

Over 2.5 60% Both score 51% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Alkmaar)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsEdwin Van de Graaf

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.29
Matches 24

Team strength

AZ Alkmaar

NAC Breda

43 L90 StrengthIn forecast 14

47 Current StrengthIn forecast 14

52 AttackIn forecast 19

49 DefenceIn forecast 19

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

AZ Alkmaar

Attack—

Defense risk—

NAC Breda

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

AZ Alkmaar

NAC Breda

1.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.97

1.45 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.67

1.74 xGVia Att/Def 1.08

1.20 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.49

-0.07 Goals minus xGContext -0.11

88% Scored inContext 58%

27% Clean sheetsContext 18%

15.36 ShotsContext 13.45

5.61 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.23

37% On target shareContext 30%

10.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.19

64% Box shareContext 60%

11% ConversionContext 7%

1.73 OffsidesContext 1.87

11.88 Shots allowedContext 12.21

4.18 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.94

3.58 BlocksContext 3.17

2.94 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.67

70% Save rateContext 71%

53% PossessionIn forecast 49%

451 PassesContext 388

371 Accurate passesContext 305

82% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.90 Team ratingContext 6.75

9.85 FoulsContext 10.76

11.18 Fouls sufferedContext 12.48

1.79 Yellow cardsContext 1.58

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.15

This league season, per match · 33 and 33 games

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90

1.60 xGVia Att/Def 0.87

0.94 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.38

+0.20 Goals minus xGContext -0.07

70% Scored inContext 50%

50% Clean sheetsContext 30%

14.70 ShotsContext 14.80

4.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.78

33% On target shareContext 23%

9.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.40

61% Box shareContext 58%

12% ConversionContext 5%

1.67 OffsidesContext 1.33

10.00 Shots allowedContext 11.10

3.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20

3.44 BlocksContext 3.56

2.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.57

71% Save rateContext 76%

55% PossessionIn forecast 50%

454 PassesContext 372

380 Accurate passesContext 291

84% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.94 Team ratingContext 6.68

10.00 FoulsContext 10.40

12.30 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00

1.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

AZ Alkmaar

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km162 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

NAC Breda

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel116 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	AZ Alkmaar	NAC Breda
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 10 May	6Eredivisie 2025-2026, 11 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	116 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	162 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	83.3	—

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

AZ Alkmaar Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1R. Owusu-Oduro(G)

15Mateo Chávez 5Alexandre Penetra 3W. Goes 22Elijah Dijkstra

6P. Koopmeiners 8J. Clasie

27Ro-Zangelo Daal 10S. Mijnans 17I. Jensen

9T. Parrott

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

NAC Breda Confirmed XI

4-4-2

99D. Bielica(G)

22R. Hillen 20F. Oldrup Jensen 15E. Mahmutović 25C. Valerius

14K. Sowah 8C. Leemans 16M. Balard 55B. Ghalidi

9M. Soumano 26P. Reulen

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

AZ Alkmaar Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

NAC Breda Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

AZ Alkmaar+0.7 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
NAC Breda-0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

AZ Alkmaar · Home 1.88points per game · 16 home games

W-D-L: 8-6-2
Scored: 2.25
Conceded: 1.44

NAC Breda · Away 0.50points per game · 16 away games

W-D-L: 1-5-10
Scored: 0.75
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	AZ Alkmaar	NAC Breda
Feyenoord	D 1–1 AD 3–3 H	D 3–3 HL 0–2 A
Twente	D 2–2 HL 0–1 A	D 2–2 HD 2–2 A
GO Ahead Eagles	D 0–0 AD 2–2 H	L 0–6 AW 1–0 H
Heerenveen	W 3–0 HL 1–3 A	W 2–0 HD 3–3 A
Fortuna Sittard	W 2–0 HL 3–4 A	D 1–1 AW 2–1 H
Groningen	L 0–3 AW 4–1 H	D 0–0 AL 1–2 H
Heracles	W 4–0 HW 2–1 A	W 1–0 AW 2–1 H
PSV Eindhoven	L 1–2 AL 1–5 H	D 2–2 AL 0–1 H
Utrecht	L 0–2 AW 4–1 H	L 0–2 AD 1–1 H
Sparta Rotterdam	W 3–1 HW 1–0 A	D 0–0 HL 0–1 A
Excelsior	W 2–1 AD 1–1 H	L 0–2 HL 0–1 A
Ajax	D 1–1 HW 2–0 A	L 0–2 HL 1–2 A
NEC Nijmegen	L 1–3 HL 1–2 A	L 3–4 HL 0–3 A
Telstar	W 1–0 AW 2–1 H	L 0–3 AL 0–1 H
PEC Zwolle	L 1–3 AD 2–2 H	L 1–2 AD 2–2 H
FC Volendam	W 1–0 HD 2–2 A	W 1–0 HL 1–2 A
Points	48 of 96 · 1.50 per game	28 of 96 · 0.88 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

2 AZ Alkmaar wins1 draws0 NAC Breda wins

Goals per game1.33 – 0.67 Over 2.533% Both scored67% Clean sheets33% · 0%

31 Aug 2025NAC Breda0–1AZ Alkmaar
24 Apr 2025AZ Alkmaar1–1NAC Breda
15 Dec 2024NAC Breda1–2AZ Alkmaar

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	AZ Alkmaar	NAC Breda	Forecast
Scored per game	1.67	0.97
Conceded per game	1.45	1.67
Match goals	3.12	2.64	3.13
Over 1.5	82%	70%
Over 2.5	64%	48%	60%
Over 3.5	42%	24%
Both teams scored	64%	45%	51%
Clean sheets	27%	18%
Failed to score	12%	42%
Games	33	33

	AZ Alkmaar	NAC Breda	Forecast
Scored per game	1.60	0.80
Conceded per game	1.10	1.90
Match goals	2.70	2.70	3.13
Over 1.5	90%	80%
Over 2.5	60%	40%	60%
Over 3.5	30%	20%
Both teams scored	40%	30%	51%
Clean sheets	40%	30%
Failed to score	30%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	AZ Alkmaar	NAC Breda	League
Corners
Corners won	5.64	5.64
Corners conceded	4.39	4.15
Match total	10.03	9.79	10.30
Over 8.5	76% 25/33	64% 21/33
Over 9.5	45% 15/33	52% 17/33
Over 10.5	33% 11/33	48% 16/33
Cards
Cards	1.82	1.79
Opponent cards	1.52	1.88
Match total	3.34	3.67	3.28
Over 3.5	39% 13/33	48% 16/33
Over 4.5	21% 7/33	36% 12/33

	AZ Alkmaar	NAC Breda	League
Corners
Corners won	6.20	6.70
Corners conceded	4.30	4.60
Match total	10.50	11.30	10.30
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Cards
Cards	1.10	1.40
Opponent cards	1.80	1.70
Match total	2.90	3.10	3.28
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Edwin Van de Graaf Netherlands · 24 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.67league 3.11

Red cards0.42league 0.17

Cards 5+38%league 26%

Fouls20.3league 21.2

Penalties0.29league 0.21

Home wins42%league 45%

AZ Alkmaar3 with this referee

Record3-0-0 Cards · opp.2.3 · 3.3 Pens for · against0 · 0

W15 Dec 24A · NAC Breda2–13
W17 Aug 24H · NEC Nijmegen1–02
W24 Sep 23A · PEC Zwolle3–02

NAC Breda1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.5.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

L15 Dec 24H · AZ Alkmaar1–25

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.