AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam – 22 Feb 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sun, Feb 22 · 15:45 AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar

AZ Alkmaar 7th · 36 pts · 23 played DWLDW

First leg1–0 3–1Full time

Sparta Rotterdam 6th · 37 pts · 23 played WWWDD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

AZ Alkmaar were slight favourites.

AZ Alkmaar were the stronger side on L90 Strength (39 vs 27). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Sparta Rotterdam. AZ Alkmaar had 7.9 days of rest, Sparta Rotterdam 4.9 and had to travel 81 km.

Away travel81 kmRest days7.9 · 4.9Matches / 14d1 · 1

AZ Alkmaar49%

Draw26%

Sparta Rotterdam25%

Expected goals 1.63 – 1.09

AZ Alkmaar52%

Draw25%

Sparta Rotterdam23%

Expected goals 1.70 – 1.05

AZ Alkmaar50%

Draw26%

Sparta Rotterdam24%

Expected goals 1.64 – 1.06

AZ Alkmaar42%

Draw27%

Sparta Rotterdam31%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.22

AZ Alkmaar48%

Draw27%

Sparta Rotterdam25%

Expected goals 1.54 – 1.04

Over 2.5 51% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Alkmaar)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsAllard Lindhout

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.19
Matches 72

Team strength

AZ Alkmaar

Sparta Rotterdam

39 L90 StrengthIn forecast 27

47 Current StrengthIn forecast 18

52 AttackIn forecast 32

49 DefenceIn forecast 17

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

AZ Alkmaar

Attack—

Defense risk—

Sparta Rotterdam

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

AZ Alkmaar

Sparta Rotterdam

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.61 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.61

1.76 xGVia Att/Def 1.38

1.22 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.36

-0.06 Goals minus xGContext -0.08

96% Scored inContext 78%

22% Clean sheetsContext 39%

15.52 ShotsContext 12.57

5.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.57

37% On target shareContext 36%

10.17 Shots in the boxContext 8.39

64% Box shareContext 68%

11% ConversionContext 10%

1.79 OffsidesContext 1.62

12.22 Shots allowedContext 15.91

4.43 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.18

3.50 BlocksContext 4.48

3.05 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.41

68% Save rateContext 71%

53% PossessionIn forecast 47%

453 PassesContext 386

373 Accurate passesContext 307

82% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.94

10.30 FoulsContext 9.00

10.87 Fouls sufferedContext 10.70

2.17 Yellow cardsContext 1.78

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.04

This league season, per match · 23 and 23 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.61 xGVia Att/Def 1.57

0.93 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.13

-0.51 Goals minus xGContext -0.07

80% Scored inContext 90%

30% Clean sheetsContext 50%

13.50 ShotsContext 13.40

4.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.50

36% On target shareContext 41%

8.50 Shots in the boxContext 9.20

60% Box shareContext 71%

8% ConversionContext 11%

2.50 OffsidesContext 2.25

10.60 Shots allowedContext 14.70

3.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.30

2.70 BlocksContext 4.40

2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.10

63% Save rateContext 77%

55% PossessionIn forecast 49%

481 PassesContext 398

399 Accurate passesContext 316

83% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.77 Team ratingContext 7.03

11.40 FoulsContext 10.30

11.40 Fouls sufferedContext 11.60

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

AZ Alkmaar

Rest7.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km162 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Sparta Rotterdam

Rest4.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel81 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	AZ Alkmaar	Sparta Rotterdam
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 14 Feb	4.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 17 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	81 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	162 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	1 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7	6

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

AZ Alkmaar Confirmed XI

5-3-2

41J. Zoet(G)

15Mateo Chávez 23B. van Duijl 5Alexandre Penetra 3W. Goes 17I. Jensen

6P. Koopmeiners 20Kasper Boogaard 33M. Šín

9T. Parrott 19J. Hornkamp

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Sparta Rotterdam Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1J. Drommel(G)

5T. Quintero 4R. Martins Indi 3M. Young 2Lushendry Edward Martes

6P. Clement 8J. Kitolano

11S. Mito 10A. Santos 7M. van Bergen

9T. Lauritsen

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

AZ Alkmaar Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Sparta Rotterdam Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

AZ Alkmaar-0.9 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Sparta Rotterdam+0.8 pp

Home / Away this season

AZ Alkmaar · Home 1.55points per game · 11 home games

W-D-L: 4-5-2
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.82

Sparta Rotterdam · Away 1.73points per game · 11 away games

W-D-L: 6-1-4
Scored: 1.45
Conceded: 1.64

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	AZ Alkmaar	Sparta Rotterdam
Excelsior	W 2–1 AD 1–1 H	W 1–0 A
Ajax	D 1–1 HW 2–0 A	D 3–3 H
NEC Nijmegen	L 1–3 HL 1–2 A	D 1–1 HL 1–3 A
Telstar	W 1–0 AW 2–1 H	W 1–0 H
PEC Zwolle	L 1–3 AD 2–2 H	L 0–1 A
FC Volendam	W 1–0 HD 2–2 A	W 1–0 A
Fortuna Sittard	L 3–4 A	D 2–2 AD 1–1 H
GO Ahead Eagles	D 2–2 H	W 3–0 A
Twente	L 0–1 A	L 1–5 H
Heerenveen	L 1–3 A	L 0–3 H
PSV Eindhoven	L 1–5 H	L 1–6 A
Utrecht	W 4–1 H	W 1–0 AW 2–1 H
Feyenoord	D 3–3 H	W 4–3 AL 0–4 H
Heracles	W 2–1 A	W 2–0 HL 0–3 A
NAC Breda	W 1–0 A	W 1–0 H
Groningen	W 4–1 H	W 2–0 HW 2–0 A
Points	33 of 66 · 1.50 per game	37 of 66 · 1.68 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

3 AZ Alkmaar wins0 draws1 Sparta Rotterdam wins

Goals per game1.50 – 0.75 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 0%

2 Nov 2025Sparta Rotterdam0–1AZ Alkmaar
26 Jan 2025AZ Alkmaar1–2Sparta Rotterdam
24 Nov 2024Sparta Rotterdam1–2AZ Alkmaar
17 Sep 2023AZ Alkmaar2–0Sparta Rotterdam

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	AZ Alkmaar	Sparta Rotterdam	Forecast
Scored per game	1.70	1.30
Conceded per game	1.61	1.61
Match goals	3.30	2.91	2.71
Over 1.5	78%	70%
Over 2.5	65%	48%	51%
Over 3.5	48%	30%
Both teams scored	74%	39%	54%
Clean sheets	22%	39%
Failed to score	4%	22%
Games	23	23

	AZ Alkmaar	Sparta Rotterdam	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	1.50
Conceded per game	1.60	1.20
Match goals	2.90	2.70	2.71
Over 1.5	70%	70%
Over 2.5	50%	40%	51%
Over 3.5	40%	30%
Both teams scored	70%	40%	54%
Clean sheets	20%	50%
Failed to score	10%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	AZ Alkmaar	Sparta Rotterdam	League
Corners
Corners won	5.61	5.00
Corners conceded	4.22	6.71
Match total	9.83	11.71	10.27
Over 8.5	70% 16/23	95% 20/21
Over 9.5	43% 10/23	76% 16/21
Over 10.5	30% 7/23	67% 14/21
Cards
Cards	2.22	1.87
Opponent cards	1.48	2.09
Match total	3.70	3.96	3.50
Over 3.5	43% 10/23	65% 15/23
Over 4.5	30% 7/23	39% 9/23

	AZ Alkmaar	Sparta Rotterdam	League
Corners
Corners won	4.90	6.38
Corners conceded	3.90	6.75
Match total	8.80	13.13	10.27
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	100% 8/8
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	88% 7/8
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	88% 7/8
Cards
Cards	1.60	2.00
Opponent cards	1.40	2.30
Match total	3.00	4.30	3.50
Over 3.5	20% 2/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Allard Lindhout Netherlands · 72 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.58league 3.29

Red cards0.21league 0.20

Cards 5+35%league 30%

Fouls20.0league 21.6

Penalties0.19league 0.25

Home wins36%league 44%

AZ Alkmaar6 with this referee

Record3-1-2 Cards · opp.1.0 · 0.8 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds1

W10 Jan 26H · FC Volendam1–00
L23 Nov 25A · Heerenveen1–30
W14 May 25A · Twente3–22
L19 Oct 24H · PSV Eindhoven1–21
D20 Jan 24H · PEC Zwolle2–22

Sparta Rotterdam7 with this referee

Record4-0-3 Cards · opp.1.6 · 0.9 Pens for · against1 · 1

W17 Aug 25H · Utrecht2–11
W10 May 25A · Almere City FC3–01
L14 Feb 25A · GO Ahead Eagles0–13
L22 Dec 24H · Ajax0–22
W31 Aug 24A · Willem II2–14

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.