Eredivisie Knockout phase Sun, Feb 22 · 15:45 AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar 7th · 36 pts · 23 played
First leg1–0 3–1Full time
Sparta Rotterdam 6th · 37 pts · 23 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
AZ Alkmaar49.3%fair odds 2.03
Draw25.9%fair odds 3.86
Sparta Rotterdam24.8%fair odds 4.04
Expected goals1.63 – 1.09total 2.71
Likeliest score1–112.3%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

AZ Alkmaar

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

Sparta Rotterdam

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

AZ Alkmaar ↓ · Sparta Rotterdam →0123456+
07.36.63.91.40.40.10.0
110.212.36.42.30.60.10.0
28.89.55.21.90.50.10.0
34.85.22.81.00.30.10.0
41.92.11.10.40.10.00.0
50.60.70.40.10.00.00.0
6+0.20.20.10.00.00.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are AZ Alkmaar goals, columns Sparta Rotterdam goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 1–112.3%8.10
  • 1–010.2%9.82
  • 2–19.5%10.49
  • 2–08.8%11.39
  • 0–07.3%13.76
  • 0–16.6%15.17
  • 1–26.4%15.71
  • 2–25.2%19.33
  • 3–15.2%19.36
  • 3–04.8%21.01

Winning margin

11.1% AZ Alkmaar by 3+ fair 9.00
15.2% AZ Alkmaar by 2 fair 6.56
23.0% AZ Alkmaar by 1 fair 4.35
25.9% Draw fair 3.86
15.1% Sparta Rotterdam by 1 fair 6.61
6.8% Sparta Rotterdam by 2 fair 14.73
2.8% Sparta Rotterdam by 3+ fair 35.23

Goal distribution

Total goals

7%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
14%5+

AZ Alkmaar goals

20%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+

Sparta Rotterdam goals

34%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
2%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
AZ Alkmaar win 49.3% 48.2% +1.2 pp
Draw 25.9% 26.8% -0.9 pp
Sparta Rotterdam win 24.8% 25.0% -0.3 pp
Over 2.5 50.9% 47.6% +3.3 pp
Both teams score 53.8% 51.4% +2.4 pp
Expected goals AZ Alkmaar 1.63 1.54 +0.09
Expected goals Sparta Rotterdam 1.09 1.04 +0.04

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • AZ Alkmaar win49.3%2.03
  • Draw25.9%3.86
  • Sparta Rotterdam win24.8%4.04
  • Double chance AZ Alkmaar or draw75.2%1.33
  • Double chance AZ Alkmaar or Sparta Rotterdam74.1%1.35
  • Double chance Sparta Rotterdam or draw50.7%1.97
  • Draw no bet AZ Alkmaar66.6%1.50
  • Draw no bet Sparta Rotterdam33.4%2.99

Goals

  • Over 0.592.7%1.08
  • Over 1.576.0%1.32
  • Over 2.550.9%1.96
  • Over 3.528.8%3.47
  • Over 4.513.9%7.21
  • Under 1.524.0%4.16
  • Under 2.549.1%2.04
  • Under 3.571.2%1.41

Both teams to score

  • Yes53.8%1.86
  • No46.2%2.17
  • Yes and over 2.541.5%2.41
  • AZ Alkmaar win and yes22.8%4.38
  • Draw and yes18.7%5.36
  • Sparta Rotterdam win and yes12.3%8.10

Team goals

  • AZ Alkmaar over 0.580.3%1.24
  • AZ Alkmaar over 1.548.3%2.07
  • AZ Alkmaar over 2.522.3%4.48
  • Sparta Rotterdam over 0.566.2%1.51
  • Sparta Rotterdam over 1.529.6%3.38
  • Sparta Rotterdam over 2.59.7%10.35
  • AZ Alkmaar clean sheet33.8%2.96
  • Sparta Rotterdam clean sheet19.7%5.08
  • AZ Alkmaar win to nil26.5%3.77
  • Sparta Rotterdam win to nil12.4%8.06

Handicap

  • AZ Alkmaar −1.526.3%3.80
  • AZ Alkmaar −2.511.1%9.00
  • Sparta Rotterdam +1.573.7%1.36
  • Sparta Rotterdam +2.588.9%1.13
  • Sparta Rotterdam −1.59.6%10.39
  • AZ Alkmaar +1.590.4%1.11

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored214 Favourite won50.5% Avg chance given to result40.9% 1X2 Brier0.592 Over 2.5 called right61.7% BTTS called right63.6%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%3738.1%32.4%
40–50%7745.0%46.8%
50–60%4955.0%44.9%
60–70%2864.2%64.3%
70–80%1674.3%87.5%
80%+784.7%85.7%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 191 of 214 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.59650.5904
Avg chance given to result40.6%41.9%
Favourite won49.7%52.4%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 191 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 214 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.