Barcelona vs Alaves – 29 Nov 2025

La Liga Gameweek 14 Sat, Nov 29 · 15:15 Spotify Camp Nou, Barcelona

Barcelona 2nd · 31 pts · 13 played WLWWW

3–1Full time

Alaves 14th · 15 pts · 13 played DLWLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Barcelona were clear favourites.

Barcelona were the stronger side on L90 Strength (89 vs 46). Barcelona usually keep the ball (66% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Barcelona had 7 days of rest, Alaves 7.1 and had to travel 430 km.

Away travel430 kmRest days7 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1

Barcelona76%

Draw16%

Alaves8%

Expected goals 2.46 – 0.70

Barcelona76%

Draw16%

Alaves8%

Expected goals 2.49 – 0.72

Barcelona76%

Draw16%

Alaves8%

Expected goals 2.49 – 0.70

Barcelona69%

Draw19%

Alaves12%

Expected goals 2.20 – 0.79

Barcelona75%

Draw16%

Alaves9%

Expected goals 2.46 – 0.72

Over 2.5 61% Both score 46% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Barcelona)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainMiguel Angel Ortiz Arias

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.25
Matches 32

Team strength

Barcelona

Alaves

89 L90 StrengthIn forecast 46

93 Current StrengthIn forecast 48

97 AttackIn forecast 48

92 DefenceIn forecast 55

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Barcelona

Attack—

Defense risk—

Alaves

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Barcelona

Alaves

2.77 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.85

1.15 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.92

2.11 xGVia Att/Def 1.02

1.29 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.90

+0.66 Goals minus xGContext -0.17

100% Scored inContext 54%

31% Clean sheetsContext 15%

19.85 ShotsContext 11.15

7.69 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.46

39% On target shareContext 31%

12.15 Shots in the boxContext 7.50

62% Box shareContext 64%

14% ConversionContext 8%

3.00 OffsidesContext 2.80

9.00 Shots allowedContext 10.31

3.69 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.15

2.64 BlocksContext 3.91

2.62 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.42

71% Save rateContext 73%

68% PossessionIn forecast 52%

628 PassesContext 431

562 Accurate passesContext 350

89% Pass accuracyContext 81%

7.04 Team ratingContext 6.78

10.54 FoulsContext 15.54

11.92 Fouls sufferedContext 13.77

1.31 Yellow cardsContext 2.23

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 13 and 13 games

2.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80

1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

1.86 xGVia Att/Def 1.00

1.67 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.79

+0.64 Goals minus xGContext -0.20

90% Scored inContext 50%

10% Clean sheetsContext 20%

16.70 ShotsContext 11.40

6.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.40

37% On target shareContext 30%

10.60 Shots in the boxContext 7.89

64% Box shareContext 66%

15% ConversionContext 7%

2.71 OffsidesContext 3.00

11.90 Shots allowedContext 9.70

4.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.70

2.90 BlocksContext 4.13

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.89

63% Save rateContext 65%

62% PossessionIn forecast 52%

573 PassesContext 429

509 Accurate passesContext 348

89% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.90 Team ratingContext 6.75

11.00 FoulsContext 16.10

12.90 Fouls sufferedContext 14.00

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Barcelona

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Alaves

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel430 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Barcelona	Alaves
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7La Liga 2025-2026, 22 Nov	7.1La Liga 2025-2026, 22 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	430 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	3.2	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Barcelona Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

13Joan García(G)

3Alejandro Balde 18Gerard Martín 5Pau Cubarsí 24Eric García

17Marc Casadó 22Marc Bernal

11Raphinha 20Dani Olmo 10Lamine Yamal

9R. Lewandowski

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Alaves Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

1Antonio Sivera(G)

24Víctor Parada 5Jon Pacheco 14F. Tenaglia 17Jonny

8Antonio Blanco

21A. Rebbach 4Denis Suárez 19Pablo Ibáñez 20Calebe

15L. Boyé

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Barcelona Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Alaves Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Barcelona-0.5 pp
Draw+0.3 pp
Alaves+0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Barcelona · Home 3.00points per game · 6 home games

W-D-L: 6-0-0
Scored: 3.33
Conceded: 0.50

Alaves · Away 0.67points per game · 6 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-4
Scored: 0.33
Conceded: 0.83

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 10 this season

Opponent	Barcelona	Alaves
Athletic Club	W 4–0 H	W 1–0 A
Celta Vigo	W 4–2 A	L 0–1 H
Elche	W 3–1 H	W 3–1 H
Girona	W 2–1 H	L 0–1 A
Sevilla	L 1–4 A	L 1–2 H
Getafe	W 3–0 H	D 1–1 A
Valencia	W 6–0 H	D 0–0 H
Rayo Vallecano	D 1–1 A	L 0–1 A
Levante	W 3–2 A	W 2–1 H
Mallorca	W 3–0 A	L 0–1 A
Points	25 of 30 · 2.50 per game	11 of 30 · 1.10 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

6 Barcelona wins2 draws0 Alaves wins

Goals per game2.13 – 0.63 Over 2.550% Both scored63% Clean sheets38% · 0%

2 Feb 2025Barcelona1–0Alaves
6 Oct 2024Alaves0–3Barcelona
3 Feb 2024Alaves1–3Barcelona
12 Nov 2023Barcelona2–1Alaves
23 Jan 2022Alaves0–1Barcelona
30 Oct 2021Barcelona1–1Alaves

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Barcelona	Alaves	Forecast
Scored per game	2.77	0.85
Conceded per game	1.15	0.92
Match goals	3.92	1.77	3.16
Over 1.5	100%	46%
Over 2.5	92%	31%	61%
Over 3.5	54%	8%
Both teams scored	69%	46%	46%
Clean sheets	31%	15%
Failed to score	0%	46%
Games	13	13

	Barcelona	Alaves	Forecast
Scored per game	2.90	0.80
Conceded per game	1.20	0.90
Match goals	4.10	1.70	3.16
Over 1.5	100%	40%
Over 2.5	100%	30%	61%
Over 3.5	60%	10%
Both teams scored	70%	40%	46%
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Failed to score	0%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Barcelona	Alaves	League
Corners
Corners won	6.33	5.17
Corners conceded	5.00	4.42
Match total	11.33	9.59	9.76
Over 8.5	83% 10/12	50% 6/12
Over 9.5	58% 7/12	42% 5/12
Over 10.5	58% 7/12	42% 5/12
Cards
Cards	1.46	2.31
Opponent cards	2.77	2.31
Match total	4.23	4.62	4.30
Over 3.5	54% 7/13	77% 10/13
Over 4.5	46% 6/13	54% 7/13

	Barcelona	Alaves	League
Corners
Corners won	6.00	5.44
Corners conceded	5.75	4.56
Match total	11.75	10.00	9.76
Over 8.5	88% 7/8	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	63% 5/8	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	63% 5/8	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	2.30	2.50
Opponent cards	2.40	2.40
Match total	4.70	4.90	4.30
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias Spain · 32 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.72league 4.06

Red cards0.28league 0.27

Cards 5+47%league 45%

Fouls23.7league 24.5

Penalties0.25league 0.34

Home wins38%league 48%

Barcelona6 with this referee

Record4-2-0 Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.8 Pens for · against1 · 0

W25 Sep 25A · Oviedo3–10
W22 Apr 25H · Mallorca1–00
D11 Feb 24H · Granada CF3–31
D16 Dec 23A · Valencia1–12
W29 Sep 23H · Sevilla1–02

Alaves4 with this referee

Record2-1-1 Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.8 Pens for · against2 · 0

W5 Oct 25H · Elche3–13
L22 Aug 25A · Real Betis0–13
D20 Apr 25A · Sevilla1–12
W26 Jan 24A · Almeria3–02

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.