Barcelona vs Athletic Club – 22 Nov 2025

La Liga Gameweek 13 Sat, Nov 22 · 15:15 Spotify Camp Nou, Barcelona

Barcelona 2nd · 28 pts · 12 played LWLWW

4–0Full time

Athletic Club 7th · 17 pts · 12 played WDLLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Barcelona were clear favourites.

Barcelona were the stronger side on L90 Strength (89 vs 63). Barcelona usually keep the ball (67% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Barcelona had 12.8 days of rest, Athletic Club 13.1 and had to travel 467 km.

Away travel467 kmRest days12.8 · 13.1Matches / 14d1 · 1

Barcelona69%

Draw19%

Athletic Club12%

Expected goals 2.19 – 0.81

Barcelona68%

Draw20%

Athletic Club12%

Expected goals 2.17 – 0.82

Barcelona69%

Draw20%

Athletic Club12%

Expected goals 2.18 – 0.80

Barcelona61%

Draw22%

Athletic Club16%

Expected goals 1.96 – 0.91

Barcelona68%

Draw20%

Athletic Club13%

Expected goals 2.19 – 0.84

Over 2.5 58% Both score 50% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Barcelona)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainJose Maria Sanchez Martinez

Cards per match 4.7
Penalties per match 0.24
Matches 42

Team strength

Barcelona

Athletic Club

89 L90 StrengthIn forecast 63

93 Current StrengthIn forecast 53

97 AttackIn forecast 51

92 DefenceIn forecast 64

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Barcelona

Attack—

Defense risk—

Athletic Club

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Barcelona

Athletic Club

2.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.25 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.08

2.12 xGVia Att/Def 1.23

1.34 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.68

+0.55 Goals minus xGContext -0.23

100% Scored inContext 58%

25% Clean sheetsContext 25%

19.92 ShotsContext 12.92

7.75 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.25

39% On target shareContext 33%

12.00 Shots in the boxContext 9.00

61% Box shareContext 65%

13% ConversionContext 8%

2.60 OffsidesContext 1.83

8.67 Shots allowedContext 8.58

3.83 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.42

2.60 BlocksContext 2.67

2.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50

70% Save rateContext 73%

68% PossessionIn forecast 51%

623 PassesContext 423

558 Accurate passesContext 347

90% Pass accuracyContext 82%

7.02 Team ratingContext 6.82

10.67 FoulsContext 11.67

12.17 Fouls sufferedContext 13.42

1.42 Yellow cardsContext 1.58

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.17

This league season, per match · 12 and 12 games

2.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

2.02 xGVia Att/Def 1.22

1.62 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.73

+0.58 Goals minus xGContext -0.22

100% Scored inContext 60%

0% Clean sheetsContext 20%

18.70 ShotsContext 13.00

7.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.20

40% On target shareContext 32%

11.60 Shots in the boxContext 9.11

63% Box shareContext 65%

14% ConversionContext 8%

2.14 OffsidesContext 2.20

10.50 Shots allowedContext 8.90

4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

2.80 BlocksContext 2.75

2.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.70

62% Save rateContext 68%

66% PossessionIn forecast 51%

610 PassesContext 426

548 Accurate passesContext 350

90% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.92 Team ratingContext 6.77

10.10 FoulsContext 12.00

12.40 Fouls sufferedContext 12.40

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Barcelona

Rest12.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,812 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Athletic Club

Rest13.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel467 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Barcelona	Athletic Club
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	12.8La Liga 2025-2026, 9 Nov	13.1La Liga 2025-2026, 9 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	467 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,812 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7	7.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Barcelona Confirmed XI

4-3-3

13Joan García(G)

3Alejandro Balde 18Gerard Martín 5Pau Cubarsí 23J. Koundé

20Dani Olmo 24Eric García 16Fermín López

7Ferran Torres 9R. Lewandowski 10Lamine Yamal

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Athletic Club Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Unai Simón(G)

17Yuri 14A. Laporte 3Dani Vivian 2Andoni Gorosabel

18Mikel Jauregizar 16Ruíz de Galarreta

10Nico Williams 8Oihan Sancet 7Álex Berenguer

20Unai Gómez

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Barcelona Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Athletic Club Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Barcelona+0.0 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Athletic Club+0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Barcelona · Home 3.00points per game · 5 home games

W-D-L: 5-0-0
Scored: 3.20
Conceded: 0.60

Athletic Club · Away 0.80points per game · 5 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-3
Scored: 0.80
Conceded: 1.40

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 9 this season

Opponent	Barcelona	Athletic Club
Elche	W 3–1 H	D 0–0 A
Girona	W 2–1 H	D 1–1 H
Sevilla	L 1–4 A	W 3–2 H
Real Sociedad	W 2–1 H	L 2–3 A
Oviedo	W 3–1 A	W 1–0 H
Getafe	W 3–0 H	L 0–1 H
Valencia	W 6–0 H	L 0–2 A
Rayo Vallecano	D 1–1 A	W 1–0 H
Mallorca	W 3–0 A	W 2–1 H
Points	22 of 27 · 2.44 per game	14 of 27 · 1.56 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

8 Barcelona wins2 draws0 Athletic Club wins

Goals per game2.10 – 0.50 Over 2.560% Both scored40% Clean sheets60% · 10%

25 May 2025Athletic Club0–3Barcelona
24 Aug 2024Barcelona2–1Athletic Club
3 Mar 2024Athletic Club0–0Barcelona
22 Oct 2023Barcelona1–0Athletic Club
12 Mar 2023Athletic Club0–1Barcelona
23 Oct 2022Barcelona4–0Athletic Club

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Barcelona	Athletic Club	Forecast
Scored per game	2.67	1.00
Conceded per game	1.25	1.08
Match goals	3.92	2.08	3.00
Over 1.5	100%	50%
Over 2.5	92%	33%	58%
Over 3.5	50%	17%
Both teams scored	75%	42%	50%
Clean sheets	25%	25%
Failed to score	0%	42%
Games	12	12

	Barcelona	Athletic Club	Forecast
Scored per game	2.60	0.80
Conceded per game	1.30	1.10
Match goals	3.90	1.90	3.00
Over 1.5	100%	50%
Over 2.5	90%	30%	58%
Over 3.5	50%	10%
Both teams scored	80%	40%	50%
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Failed to score	0%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Barcelona	Athletic Club	League
Corners
Corners won	6.45	5.50
Corners conceded	4.82	4.17
Match total	11.27	9.67	9.73
Over 8.5	82% 9/11	67% 8/12
Over 9.5	55% 6/11	50% 6/12
Over 10.5	55% 6/11	42% 5/12
Cards
Cards	1.58	1.75
Opponent cards	2.75	2.42
Match total	4.33	4.17	4.24
Over 3.5	58% 7/12	50% 6/12
Over 4.5	50% 6/12	25% 3/12

	Barcelona	Athletic Club	League
Corners
Corners won	7.11	5.00
Corners conceded	5.11	3.67
Match total	12.22	8.67	9.73
Over 8.5	89% 8/9	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	67% 6/9	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	67% 6/9	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	2.20	1.50
Opponent cards	2.20	2.00
Match total	4.40	3.50	4.24
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez Spain · 42 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.40league 4.01

Red cards0.29league 0.25

Cards 5+48%league 43%

Fouls24.3league 24.6

Penalties0.24league 0.35

Home wins50%league 48%

Barcelona3 with this referee

Record3-0-0 Cards · opp.2.3 · 3.3 Pens for · against0 · 0

W17 Mar 24A · Atletico Madrid3–01
W3 Dec 23H · Atletico Madrid1–05
W16 Sep 23H · Real Betis5–01

Athletic Club4 with this referee

Record2-1-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L13 Sep 25H · Alaves0–14
D11 May 24H · Osasuna2–22
W19 Feb 24H · Girona3–21
W4 Jan 24A · Sevilla2–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.