Barcelona
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Barcelona68.6%fair odds 1.46
Draw19.5%fair odds 5.13
Athletic Club12.0%fair odds 8.36
Expected goals2.19 – 0.81total 3.00
Likeliest score2–012.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Athletic Club
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Barcelona ↓ · Athletic Club → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 9.3 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.7 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.8 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Barcelona goals, columns Athletic Club goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–012.0%8.36
- 1–010.4%9.59
- 2–19.7%10.35
- 1–19.3%10.78
- 3–08.7%11.44
- 3–17.1%14.15
- 0–05.4%18.41
- 4–04.8%20.85
- 2–23.9%25.60
- 4–13.9%25.79
Winning margin
24.4%
Barcelona by 3+
fair 4.11
20.8%
Barcelona by 2
fair 4.81
23.4%
Barcelona by 1
fair 4.27
19.5%
Draw
fair 5.13
8.3%
Athletic Club by 1
fair 12.01
2.8%
Athletic Club by 2
fair 35.45
0.8%
Athletic Club by 3+
fair 122.63
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
19%5+
Barcelona goals
11%0
24%1
27%2
20%3
18%4+
Athletic Club goals
45%0
36%1
15%2
4%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona win | 68.6% | 67.7% | +0.8 pp |
| Draw | 19.5% | 19.7% | -0.2 pp |
| Athletic Club win | 12.0% | 12.5% | -0.6 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 57.7% | 58.1% | -0.4 pp |
| Both teams score | 49.7% | 50.7% | -1.0 pp |
| Expected goals Barcelona | 2.19 | 2.19 | +0.01 |
| Expected goals Athletic Club | 0.81 | 0.84 | -0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Barcelona win68.6%1.46
- Draw19.5%5.13
- Athletic Club win12.0%8.36
- Double chance Barcelona or draw88.0%1.14
- Double chance Barcelona or Athletic Club80.5%1.24
- Double chance Athletic Club or draw31.4%3.18
- Draw no bet Barcelona85.1%1.17
- Draw no bet Athletic Club14.9%6.73
Goals
- Over 0.594.6%1.06
- Over 1.580.6%1.24
- Over 2.557.7%1.73
- Over 3.535.3%2.83
- Over 4.518.5%5.40
- Under 1.519.4%5.15
- Under 2.542.3%2.37
- Under 3.564.7%1.55
Both teams to score
- Yes49.7%2.01
- No50.3%1.99
- Yes and over 2.540.5%2.47
- Barcelona win and yes29.4%3.40
- Draw and yes14.0%7.12
- Athletic Club win and yes6.3%15.99
Team goals
- Barcelona over 0.588.9%1.13
- Barcelona over 1.564.4%1.55
- Barcelona over 2.537.6%2.66
- Athletic Club over 0.555.4%1.80
- Athletic Club over 1.519.4%5.15
- Athletic Club over 2.54.9%20.57
- Barcelona clean sheet44.6%2.24
- Athletic Club clean sheet11.1%8.97
- Barcelona win to nil39.1%2.56
- Athletic Club win to nil5.7%17.51
Handicap
- Barcelona −1.545.1%2.22
- Barcelona −2.524.4%4.11
- Athletic Club +1.554.9%1.82
- Athletic Club +2.575.6%1.32
- Athletic Club −1.53.6%27.50
- Barcelona +1.596.4%1.04
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored122
Favourite won54.9%
Avg chance given to result42.1%
1X2 Brier0.559
Over 2.5 called right60.7%
BTTS called right55.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 19 | 37.7% | 42.1% |
| 40–50% | 53 | 44.2% | 45.3% |
| 50–60% | 23 | 54.1% | 56.5% |
| 60–70% | 14 | 64.1% | 71.4% |
| 70–80% | 12 | 75.0% | 91.7% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 80.5% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 91 of 122 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5528 | 0.5480 |
| Avg chance given to result | 42.2% | 43.1% |
| Favourite won | 57.1% | 58.2% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 91 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 122 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.