Barcelona
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Barcelona80.9%fair odds 1.24
Draw12.6%fair odds 7.92
Athletic Club6.5%fair odds 15.38
Expected goals2.94 – 0.77total 3.70
Likeliest score2–010.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Athletic Club
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Barcelona ↓ · Athletic Club → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 8.1 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 10.4 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 7.6 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Barcelona goals, columns Athletic Club goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–010.6%9.40
- 3–010.4%9.60
- 2–18.1%12.28
- 3–18.0%12.54
- 4–07.6%13.08
- 1–06.9%14.39
- 4–15.9%17.08
- 1–15.8%17.12
- 5–04.5%22.27
- 5–13.4%29.07
Winning margin
40.9%
Barcelona by 3+
fair 2.45
21.2%
Barcelona by 2
fair 4.71
18.8%
Barcelona by 1
fair 5.32
12.6%
Draw
fair 7.92
4.7%
Athletic Club by 1
fair 21.36
1.4%
Athletic Club by 2
fair 69.30
0.4%
Athletic Club by 3+
fair 264.26
Goal distribution
Total goals
3%0
9%1
17%2
21%3
19%4
31%5+
Barcelona goals
5%0
16%1
23%2
22%3
34%4+
Athletic Club goals
46%0
36%1
14%2
3%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona win | 80.9% | 79.0% | +1.9 pp |
| Draw | 12.6% | 13.9% | -1.2 pp |
| Athletic Club win | 6.5% | 7.1% | -0.6 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 71.5% | 67.9% | +3.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 51.0% | 49.5% | +1.5 pp |
| Expected goals Barcelona | 2.94 | 2.76 | +0.18 |
| Expected goals Athletic Club | 0.77 | 0.74 | +0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Barcelona win80.9%1.24
- Draw12.6%7.92
- Athletic Club win6.5%15.38
- Double chance Barcelona or draw93.5%1.07
- Double chance Barcelona or Athletic Club87.4%1.14
- Double chance Athletic Club or draw19.1%5.23
- Draw no bet Barcelona92.6%1.08
- Draw no bet Athletic Club7.4%13.44
Goals
- Over 0.597.2%1.03
- Over 1.588.7%1.13
- Over 2.571.5%1.40
- Over 3.550.6%1.97
- Over 4.531.3%3.19
- Under 1.511.3%8.85
- Under 2.528.5%3.51
- Under 3.549.4%2.03
Both teams to score
- Yes51.0%1.96
- No49.0%2.04
- Yes and over 2.545.1%2.22
- Barcelona win and yes37.1%2.69
- Draw and yes9.9%10.14
- Athletic Club win and yes4.0%25.25
Team goals
- Barcelona over 0.594.7%1.06
- Barcelona over 1.579.1%1.26
- Barcelona over 2.556.2%1.78
- Athletic Club over 0.553.5%1.87
- Athletic Club over 1.517.9%5.59
- Athletic Club over 2.54.3%23.45
- Barcelona clean sheet46.5%2.15
- Athletic Club clean sheet5.3%18.86
- Barcelona win to nil43.7%2.29
- Athletic Club win to nil2.5%39.31
Handicap
- Barcelona −1.562.1%1.61
- Barcelona −2.540.9%2.45
- Athletic Club +1.537.9%2.64
- Athletic Club +2.559.1%1.69
- Athletic Club −1.51.8%54.90
- Barcelona +1.598.2%1.02
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored19
Favourite won42.1%
Avg chance given to result38.4%
1X2 Brier0.616
Over 2.5 called right52.6%
BTTS called right57.9%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 3 | 38.8% | 33.3% |
| 40–50% | 10 | 45.2% | 20.0% |
| 50–60% | 4 | 56.1% | 75.0% |
| 60–70% | 1 | 62.3% | 100.0% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 74.9% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 2 of 19 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.4883 | 0.4985 |
| Avg chance given to result | 49.8% | 49.5% |
| Favourite won | 50.0% | 50.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 2 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 19 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.