Barcelona
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Barcelona were clear favourites.
Barcelona were the stronger side on L90 Strength (91 vs 50). Barcelona usually keep the ball (66% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Barcelona had 4 days of rest, Athletic Club 5.2 and had to travel 467 km. Weather to note: heat stress.
Away travel467 kmRest days4 · 5.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
Barcelona81%
Draw12%
Athletic Club7%
Barcelona77%
Draw15%
Athletic Club8%
Barcelona80%
Draw13%
Athletic Club7%
Barcelona75%
Draw15%
Athletic Club10%
Barcelona79%
Draw13%
Athletic Club7%
Over 2.5 72%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Barcelona)
Heat stress
28°CMainly clear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 7 km/h
- Humidity 67%
Referee · SpainMiguel Angel Ortiz Arias
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 45
Team strength
Barcelona
Athletic Club
91
L90 StrengthIn forecast
50
93
Current StrengthIn forecast
53
97
AttackIn forecast
51
92
DefenceIn forecast
64
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Form indexContext
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In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAthletic Club
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BarcelonaAthletic Club
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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Goals concededVia Att/Def
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xGVia Att/Def
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xG allowedVia Att/Def
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Goals minus xGContext
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Scored inContext
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Clean sheetsContext
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ShotsContext
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Shots on targetVia Att/Def
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On target shareContext
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Shots in the boxContext
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Box shareContext
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ConversionContext
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OffsidesContext
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Shots allowedContext
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On target allowedVia Att/Def
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BlocksContext
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Goalkeeper savesContext
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Save rateContext
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PossessionIn forecast
—
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PassesContext
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Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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Yellow cardsContext
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Red cardsContext
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2.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.73
xGVia Att/Def
0.97
1.00
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.10
+0.47
Goals minus xGContext
+0.23
90%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.00
ShotsContext
12.40
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.67
45%
On target shareContext
34%
8.80
Shots in the boxContext
8.50
72%
Box shareContext
70%
18%
ConversionContext
10%
2.44
OffsidesContext
1.43
9.20
Shots allowedContext
8.30
3.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
2.33
BlocksContext
1.75
2.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.40
79%
Save rateContext
55%
68%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
644
PassesContext
411
583
Accurate passesContext
332
91%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.09
Team ratingContext
6.61
10.00
FoulsContext
13.00
11.80
Fouls sufferedContext
9.10
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Barcelona
W
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km850 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 65 · 3 pts vs 1.3 for an average club · +1.0 vs expected
- W23 AugA · Elche5–02.0 xPts
Athletic Club
L
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel467 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 36 · 0 pts vs 1.7 for an average club · -1.7 vs expected
- L22 AugH · Sevilla1–31.7 xPts
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Barcelona |
Athletic Club |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4La Liga 2026-2027, 23 Aug | 5.2La Liga 2026-2027, 22 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 467 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 850 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4 | 3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Barcelona
Confirmed XI
1Joan García(G)
12Xavi Espart
18Gerard Martín
5Pau Cubarsí
24Eric García
8Pedri
22Marc Bernal
7Fermín López
17A. Gordon
11Raphinha
10Lamine Yamal
Athletic Club
Confirmed XI
1Unai Simón(G)
31J. Louis-Jean
14A. Laporte
5Yeray
15Hugo Rincón
28Peio Canales
18Mikel Jauregizar
10Nico Williams
8Oihan Sancet
9I. Williams
11Gorka Guruzeta
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Barcelona
Absences are shown before kick-off
Athletic Club
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Barcelona+1.1 pp
- Draw-0.8 pp
- Athletic Club-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Barcelona · Home
No home games yet this season.
Athletic Club · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings
8 Barcelona wins2 draws0 Athletic Club wins
Goals per game2.10 – 0.20
Over 2.550%
Both scored20%
Clean sheets80% · 10%
- 7 Mar 2026Athletic Club0–1Barcelona
- 22 Nov 2025Barcelona4–0Athletic Club
- 25 May 2025Athletic Club0–3Barcelona
- 24 Aug 2024Barcelona2–1Athletic Club
- 3 Mar 2024Athletic Club0–0Barcelona
- 22 Oct 2023Barcelona1–0Athletic Club
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Barcelona | Athletic Club | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 5.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match goals | 5.00 | 4.00 | 3.70 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | 72% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 100% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| Barcelona | Athletic Club | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.20 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.20 | 3.70 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 72% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Barcelona | Athletic Club | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 1.00 | 10.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 13.00 | 9.53 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.00 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 1.00 | 8.00 | 4.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Barcelona | Athletic Club | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.70 | 7.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.70 | 3.89 | |
| Match total | 9.40 | 11.00 | 9.53 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 4.00 | 4.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias Spain · 45 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.82league 4.63
Red cards0.24league 0.26
Cards 5+47%league 58%
Fouls23.3league 26.2
Penalties0.22league 0.47
Home wins38%league 37%
Barcelona7 with this referee
Record5-2-0
Cards · opp.1.4 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W29 Nov 25H · Alaves3–12
- W25 Sep 25A · Oviedo3–10
- W22 Apr 25H · Mallorca1–00
- D11 Feb 24H · Granada CF3–31
- D16 Dec 23A · Valencia1–12
Athletic Club4 with this referee
Record1-1-2
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- L10 May 26H · Valencia0–12
- L20 Sep 25A · Valencia0–22
- W10 Mar 24A · Las Palmas2–03
- D11 Dec 23A · Granada CF1–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Barcelona1 games · scored 5 · conceded 0
1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
2
61-75
1
76-90
Athletic Club1 games · scored 1 · conceded 3
1
0-15
16-30
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
76-90
Barcelona10 games · scored 22 · conceded 8
4
0-15
4
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
46-60
6
3
61-75
5
2
76-90
Athletic Club10 games · scored 12 · conceded 20
5
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
5
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
