Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid – 2 Dec 2025

La Liga Gameweek 19 Tue, Dec 2 · 20:00 Spotify Camp Nou, Barcelona

Barcelona 1st · 34 pts · 14 played LWWWW

3–1Full time

Atletico Madrid 4th · 31 pts · 14 played WWWWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Barcelona were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Barcelona usually keep the ball (66% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Barcelona had 3.2 days of rest, Atletico Madrid 3 and had to travel 504 km.

Away travel504 kmRest days3.2 · 3Matches / 14d2 · 2

Barcelona49%

Draw26%

Atletico Madrid26%

Expected goals 1.62 – 1.12

Barcelona48%

Draw26%

Atletico Madrid26%

Expected goals 1.60 – 1.12

Barcelona49%

Draw26%

Atletico Madrid25%

Expected goals 1.61 – 1.10

Barcelona41%

Draw27%

Atletico Madrid32%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.25

Barcelona48%

Draw26%

Atletico Madrid26%

Expected goals 1.61 – 1.13

Over 2.5 52% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Barcelona)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainRicardo De Burgos Bengoetxea

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.23
Matches 39

Team strength

Barcelona

Atletico Madrid

89 L90 StrengthIn forecast 86

93 Current StrengthIn forecast 80

97 AttackIn forecast 82

92 DefenceIn forecast 87

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Barcelona

Attack—

Defense risk—

Atletico Madrid

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Barcelona

Atletico Madrid

2.79 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.93

1.14 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.79

2.12 xGVia Att/Def 1.75

1.31 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.88

+0.67 Goals minus xGContext +0.18

100% Scored inContext 100%

29% Clean sheetsContext 43%

19.71 ShotsContext 13.64

7.57 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00

38% On target shareContext 44%

12.07 Shots in the boxContext 9.29

62% Box shareContext 67%

14% ConversionContext 14%

3.00 OffsidesContext 2.42

9.00 Shots allowedContext 9.21

3.64 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.57

2.50 BlocksContext 2.25

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.92

69% Save rateContext 74%

68% PossessionIn forecast 55%

633 PassesContext 513

566 Accurate passesContext 444

89% Pass accuracyContext 87%

7.07 Team ratingContext 6.94

10.50 FoulsContext 10.93

12.29 Fouls sufferedContext 10.43

1.36 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.07

This league season, per match · 14 and 14 games

2.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80

1.95 xGVia Att/Def 1.55

1.67 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.08

+0.75 Goals minus xGContext +0.25

90% Scored inContext 90%

10% Clean sheetsContext 50%

17.30 ShotsContext 13.40

6.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.20

37% On target shareContext 39%

10.90 Shots in the boxContext 9.00

64% Box shareContext 68%

16% ConversionContext 13%

2.71 OffsidesContext 3.17

11.30 Shots allowedContext 11.90

4.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.30

2.60 BlocksContext 2.80

2.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50

59% Save rateContext 76%

64% PossessionIn forecast 54%

601 PassesContext 492

535 Accurate passesContext 424

89% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.97 Team ratingContext 6.94

10.90 FoulsContext 10.40

13.20 Fouls sufferedContext 9.70

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Barcelona

Rest3.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Atletico Madrid

Rest3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel504 km25 km in 14d

Schedule load14%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Barcelona	Atletico Madrid
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 8	Low · 14
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.2La Liga 2025-2026, 29 Nov	3La Liga 2025-2026, 29 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	504 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	25 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	3.9	4

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Barcelona Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

13Joan García(G)

3Alejandro Balde 18Gerard Martín 5Pau Cubarsí 23J. Koundé

8Pedri 24Eric García

11Raphinha 20Dani Olmo 10Lamine Yamal

9R. Lewandowski

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Atletico Madrid Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

13J. Oblak(G)

17D. Hancko 15C. Lenglet 2J. Giménez 16N. Molina

5J. Cardoso 8Pablo Barrios

10Álex Baena 23N. González 20G. Simeone

19J. Alvarez

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Barcelona Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Atletico Madrid Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Barcelona+0.0 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Atletico Madrid+0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Barcelona · Home 3.00points per game · 7 home games

W-D-L: 7-0-0
Scored: 3.29
Conceded: 0.57

Atletico Madrid · Away 1.50points per game · 6 away games

W-D-L: 2-3-1
Scored: 1.17
Conceded: 0.83

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 10 this season

Opponent	Barcelona	Atletico Madrid
Alaves	W 3–1 H	D 1–1 A
Celta Vigo	W 4–2 A	D 1–1 A
Elche	W 3–1 H	D 1–1 H
Real Madrid	L 1–2 A	W 5–2 H
Sevilla	L 1–4 A	W 3–0 H
Oviedo	W 3–1 A	W 2–0 H
Getafe	W 3–0 H	W 1–0 A
Rayo Vallecano	D 1–1 A	W 3–2 H
Levante	W 3–2 A	W 3–1 H
Mallorca	W 3–0 A	D 1–1 A
Points	22 of 30 · 2.20 per game	22 of 30 · 2.20 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

6 Barcelona wins1 draws3 Atletico Madrid wins

Goals per game1.50 – 0.90 Over 2.540% Both scored30% Clean sheets50% · 30%

16 Mar 2025Atletico Madrid2–4Barcelona
21 Dec 2024Barcelona1–2Atletico Madrid
17 Mar 2024Atletico Madrid0–3Barcelona
3 Dec 2023Barcelona1–0Atletico Madrid
23 Apr 2023Barcelona1–0Atletico Madrid
8 Jan 2023Atletico Madrid0–1Barcelona

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Barcelona	Atletico Madrid	Forecast
Scored per game	2.79	1.93
Conceded per game	1.14	0.79
Match goals	3.93	2.71	2.74
Over 1.5	100%	86%
Over 2.5	93%	36%	52%
Over 3.5	57%	21%
Both teams scored	71%	57%	55%
Clean sheets	29%	43%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	14	14

	Barcelona	Atletico Madrid	Forecast
Scored per game	2.60	2.20
Conceded per game	1.30	0.70
Match goals	3.90	2.90	2.74
Over 1.5	100%	80%
Over 2.5	100%	40%	52%
Over 3.5	60%	30%
Both teams scored	80%	50%	55%
Clean sheets	20%	50%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Barcelona	Atletico Madrid	League
Corners
Corners won	6.23	7.36
Corners conceded	4.92	3.00
Match total	11.15	10.36	9.71
Over 8.5	85% 11/13	71% 10/14
Over 9.5	54% 7/13	43% 6/14
Over 10.5	54% 7/13	43% 6/14
Cards
Cards	1.50	2.14
Opponent cards	2.79	2.36
Match total	4.29	4.50	4.30
Over 3.5	57% 8/14	71% 10/14
Over 4.5	50% 7/14	43% 6/14

	Barcelona	Atletico Madrid	League
Corners
Corners won	6.13	7.30
Corners conceded	5.13	3.40
Match total	11.26	10.70	9.71
Over 8.5	88% 7/8	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	50% 4/8	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	50% 4/8	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.10	1.60
Opponent cards	2.50	1.80
Match total	4.60	3.40	4.30
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea Spain · 39 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.67league 4.06

Red cards0.23league 0.26

Cards 5+33%league 46%

Fouls22.1league 24.6

Penalties0.23league 0.33

Home wins49%league 46%

Barcelona2 with this referee

Record2-0-0 Cards · opp.1.5 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 1

W21 Sep 25H · Getafe3–02
W29 Apr 24H · Valencia4–21

Atletico Madrid5 with this referee

Record4-1-0 Cards · opp.1.6 · 1.4 Pens for · against1 · 0

W18 Oct 25H · Osasuna1–01
W13 Apr 24H · Girona3–13
W28 Jan 24H · Valencia2–02
W10 Dec 23H · Almeria2–11
D20 Aug 23A · Real Betis0–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.