Barcelona
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Barcelona77.3%fair odds 1.29
Draw14.9%fair odds 6.71
Celta Vigo7.8%fair odds 12.78
Expected goals2.63 – 0.74total 3.38
Likeliest score2–011.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Celta Vigo
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Barcelona ↓ · Celta Vigo → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.8 | 8.8 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 10.4 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 6.8 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Barcelona goals, columns Celta Vigo goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–011.8%8.45
- 3–010.4%9.63
- 2–18.8%11.35
- 1–08.6%11.58
- 3–17.7%12.93
- 1–17.0%14.19
- 4–06.8%14.63
- 4–15.1%19.65
- 0–03.8%26.54
- 5–03.6%27.77
Winning margin
34.7%
Barcelona by 3+
fair 2.88
21.7%
Barcelona by 2
fair 4.60
20.8%
Barcelona by 1
fair 4.80
14.9%
Draw
fair 6.71
5.6%
Celta Vigo by 1
fair 17.74
1.7%
Celta Vigo by 2
fair 57.57
0.4%
Celta Vigo by 3+
fair 222.72
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
11%1
20%2
22%3
19%4
25%5+
Barcelona goals
7%0
19%1
25%2
22%3
27%4+
Celta Vigo goals
47%0
35%1
13%2
3%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona win | 77.3% | 76.6% | +0.7 pp |
| Draw | 14.9% | 15.2% | -0.3 pp |
| Celta Vigo win | 7.8% | 8.2% | -0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 65.6% | 65.6% | +0.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 49.1% | 49.9% | -0.8 pp |
| Expected goals Barcelona | 2.63 | 2.61 | +0.02 |
| Expected goals Celta Vigo | 0.74 | 0.76 | -0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Barcelona win77.3%1.29
- Draw14.9%6.71
- Celta Vigo win7.8%12.78
- Double chance Barcelona or draw92.2%1.08
- Double chance Barcelona or Celta Vigo85.1%1.18
- Double chance Celta Vigo or draw22.7%4.40
- Draw no bet Barcelona90.8%1.10
- Draw no bet Celta Vigo9.2%10.88
Goals
- Over 0.596.2%1.04
- Over 1.585.4%1.17
- Over 2.565.6%1.52
- Over 3.543.7%2.29
- Over 4.525.2%3.97
- Under 1.514.6%6.86
- Under 2.534.4%2.91
- Under 3.556.3%1.78
Both teams to score
- Yes49.1%2.04
- No50.9%1.96
- Yes and over 2.542.0%2.38
- Barcelona win and yes33.5%2.98
- Draw and yes11.1%8.98
- Celta Vigo win and yes4.4%22.70
Team goals
- Barcelona over 0.592.8%1.08
- Barcelona over 1.573.9%1.35
- Barcelona over 2.549.0%2.04
- Celta Vigo over 0.552.5%1.90
- Celta Vigo over 1.517.1%5.83
- Celta Vigo over 2.54.0%25.14
- Barcelona clean sheet47.5%2.11
- Celta Vigo clean sheet7.2%13.92
- Barcelona win to nil43.7%2.29
- Celta Vigo win to nil3.4%29.26
Handicap
- Barcelona −1.556.4%1.77
- Barcelona −2.534.7%2.88
- Celta Vigo +1.543.6%2.30
- Celta Vigo +2.565.3%1.53
- Celta Vigo −1.52.2%45.75
- Barcelona +1.597.8%1.02
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored316
Favourite won52.2%
Avg chance given to result41.1%
1X2 Brier0.579
Over 2.5 called right58.2%
BTTS called right57.3%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 65 | 37.8% | 33.8% |
| 40–50% | 123 | 44.4% | 46.3% |
| 50–60% | 61 | 54.8% | 59.0% |
| 60–70% | 34 | 64.0% | 61.8% |
| 70–80% | 26 | 74.4% | 84.6% |
| 80%+ | 7 | 82.8% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 256 of 316 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5818 | 0.5723 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.9% | 41.7% |
| Favourite won | 52.3% | 53.9% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 256 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 316 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.