Barcelona
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Barcelona were clear favourites.
Barcelona were the stronger side on L90 Strength (91 vs 57). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Barcelona. Barcelona had 11.1 days of rest, Celta Vigo 6.1 and had to travel 906 km.
Away travel906 kmRest days11.1 · 6.1Matches / 14d1 · 3
Barcelona77%
Draw15%
Celta Vigo8%
Barcelona74%
Draw17%
Celta Vigo9%
Barcelona77%
Draw15%
Celta Vigo8%
Barcelona71%
Draw18%
Celta Vigo11%
Barcelona77%
Draw15%
Celta Vigo8%
Over 2.5 66%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Barcelona)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJosé Luis Munuera Montero
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.20
- Matches 41
Team strength
Barcelona
Celta Vigo
91
L90 StrengthIn forecast
57
93
Current StrengthIn forecast
51
97
AttackIn forecast
36
92
DefenceIn forecast
61
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCelta Vigo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BarcelonaCelta Vigo
2.71
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.42
0.97
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.29
2.46
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
1.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.17
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.18
100%
Scored inContext
84%
39%
Clean sheetsContext
26%
19.52
ShotsContext
10.35
7.13
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
37%
On target shareContext
40%
12.65
Shots in the boxContext
6.58
66%
Box shareContext
62%
14%
ConversionContext
14%
2.58
OffsidesContext
2.61
9.00
Shots allowedContext
11.71
3.68
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.23
2.33
BlocksContext
3.38
2.77
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.18
74%
Save rateContext
72%
69%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
643
PassesContext
494
577
Accurate passesContext
426
90%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
7.12
Team ratingContext
6.82
9.61
FoulsContext
11.35
11.90
Fouls sufferedContext
11.74
1.39
Yellow cardsContext
1.77
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
2.13
xGVia Att/Def
1.01
1.15
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.13
+0.57
Goals minus xGContext
+0.39
90%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
15.20
ShotsContext
8.70
6.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.56
45%
On target shareContext
47%
11.20
Shots in the boxContext
5.60
74%
Box shareContext
64%
18%
ConversionContext
16%
2.22
OffsidesContext
2.43
9.00
Shots allowedContext
12.50
3.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
2.38
BlocksContext
3.44
2.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
68%
Save rateContext
60%
66%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
596
PassesContext
481
533
Accurate passesContext
413
89%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
7.11
Team ratingContext
6.68
8.70
FoulsContext
13.30
13.40
Fouls sufferedContext
11.70
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Barcelona
Rest11.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Celta Vigo
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel906 km2,892 km in 14d
Schedule load32%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Barcelona |
Celta Vigo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 32 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 11.1La Liga 2025-2026, 11 Apr | 6.1UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout phase, 16 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 906 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 2,892 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 2.8 | 4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Barcelona
Confirmed XI
13Joan García(G)
2João Cancelo
18Gerard Martín
5Pau Cubarsí
23J. Koundé
8Pedri
24Eric García
6Gavi
20Dani Olmo
10Lamine Yamal
7Ferran Torres
Celta Vigo
Confirmed XI
13I. Radu(G)
20Marcos Alonso
29Yoel Lago
32Javi Rodríguez
5Sergio Carreira
6I. Moriba
8Fer López
17Javi Rueda
23Hugo Álvarez
18Pablo Durán
9Ferran Jutglà
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Barcelona
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Celta Vigo
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Barcelona-0.1 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Celta Vigo+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Barcelona · Home
3.00points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 16-0-0
- Scored
- 3.19
- Conceded
- 0.56
Celta Vigo · Away
1.80points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 7-6-2
- Scored
- 1.40
- Conceded
- 1.07
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Barcelona | Celta Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| Espanyol | W 4–1 HW 2–0 A | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Atletico Madrid | W 2–1 AW 3–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Sevilla | W 5–2 HL 1–4 A | W 1–0 A |
| Athletic Club | W 1–0 AW 4–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Villarreal | W 4–1 HW 2–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Levante | W 3–0 HW 3–2 A | W 2–1 A |
| Girona | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Mallorca | W 3–0 HW 3–0 A | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Elche | W 3–1 AW 3–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Oviedo | W 3–0 HW 3–1 A | L 0–3 HD 0–0 A |
| Real Sociedad | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H | L 1–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Osasuna | W 2–0 H | L 1–2 HW 3–2 A |
| Real Betis | W 5–3 A | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Alaves | W 3–1 H | L 3–4 HW 1–0 A |
| Real Madrid | L 1–2 A | L 1–2 HW 2–0 A |
| Getafe | W 3–0 H | D 0–0 AL 0–2 H |
| Valencia | W 6–0 H | W 3–2 AW 4–1 H |
| Points | 76 of 90 · 2.53 per game | 44 of 90 · 1.47 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
6 Barcelona wins2 draws2 Celta Vigo wins
Goals per game2.40 – 1.80
Over 2.590%
Both scored90%
Clean sheets10% · 0%
- 9 Nov 2025Celta Vigo2–4Barcelona
- 19 Apr 2025Barcelona4–3Celta Vigo
- 23 Nov 2024Celta Vigo2–2Barcelona
- 17 Feb 2024Celta Vigo1–2Barcelona
- 23 Sep 2023Barcelona3–2Celta Vigo
- 4 Jun 2023Celta Vigo2–1Barcelona
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Barcelona | Celta Vigo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.71 | 1.42 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.97 | 1.29 | |
| Match goals | 3.68 | 2.71 | 3.38 |
| Over 1.5 | 94% | 84% | |
| Over 2.5 | 81% | 45% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 45% | 23% | |
| Both teams scored | 61% | 65% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 39% | 26% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 16% | |
| Games | 31 | 31 |
| Barcelona | Celta Vigo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.70 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 3.40 | 3.38 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 70% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Barcelona | Celta Vigo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.03 | 4.07 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.30 | 4.43 | |
| Match total | 11.33 | 8.50 | 9.60 |
| Over 8.5 | 83% 25/30 | 43% 13/30 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 20/30 | 30% 9/30 | |
| Over 10.5 | 57% 17/30 | 23% 7/30 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.45 | 1.81 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.74 | 2.52 | |
| Match total | 4.19 | 4.33 | 4.54 |
| Over 3.5 | 48% 15/31 | 61% 19/31 | |
| Over 4.5 | 39% 12/31 | 39% 12/31 | |
| Barcelona | Celta Vigo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.30 | 4.17 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.60 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 8.90 | 8.17 | 9.60 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.10 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 4.50 | 4.54 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · José Luis Munuera Montero Spain · 41 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.41league 4.28
Red cards0.29league 0.28
Cards 5+51%league 48%
Fouls25.1league 24.5
Penalties0.20league 0.36
Home wins39%league 49%
Barcelona5 with this referee
Record2-1-2
Cards · opp.2.2 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W7 Mar 26A · Athletic Club1–01
- W16 Aug 25A · Mallorca3–01
- L18 May 25H · Villarreal2–32
- L27 Jan 24H · Villarreal3–53
- D25 Nov 23A · Rayo Vallecano1–14
Celta Vigo2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L6 Feb 26H · Osasuna1–22
- L16 Sep 23H · Mallorca0–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Barcelona31 games · scored 84 · conceded 30
15
5
0-15
9
4
16-30
15
10
31-45
13
2
46-60
14
3
61-75
18
6
76-90
Celta Vigo30 games · scored 42 · conceded 40
2
6
0-15
6
2
16-30
7
9
31-45
10
5
46-60
4
9
61-75
13
9
76-90
Barcelona10 games · scored 27 · conceded 11
4
1
0-15
6
1
16-30
4
4
31-45
4
2
46-60
4
1
61-75
5
2
76-90
Celta Vigo10 games · scored 14 · conceded 20
1
4
0-15
4
16-30
1
6
31-45
3
4
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
