Barcelona
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Barcelona were clear favourites.
Barcelona were the stronger side on L90 Strength (89 vs 39). Absences weigh more on Barcelona. Barcelona had 7.1 days of rest, Elche 8.1 and had to travel 425 km.
Away travel425 kmRest days7.1 · 8.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Barcelona78%
Draw14%
Elche7%
Barcelona79%
Draw14%
Elche7%
Barcelona80%
Draw13%
Elche6%
Barcelona72%
Draw18%
Elche10%
Barcelona77%
Draw15%
Elche8%
Over 2.5 66%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Barcelona)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainMiguel Sesma Espinosa
- Cards per match 2.6
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 5
Team strength
Barcelona
Elche
89
L90 StrengthIn forecast
39
93
Current StrengthIn forecast
44
97
AttackIn forecast
39
92
DefenceIn forecast
51
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisElche
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BarcelonaElche
2.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
2.03
xGVia Att/Def
1.09
1.47
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.18
+0.47
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
100%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
20.10
ShotsContext
10.80
7.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
39%
On target shareContext
37%
11.90
Shots in the boxContext
7.60
60%
Box shareContext
66%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
2.38
OffsidesContext
2.00
9.00
Shots allowedContext
11.50
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
2.88
BlocksContext
3.40
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
73%
Save rateContext
71%
70%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
634
PassesContext
534
570
Accurate passesContext
467
90%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
7.03
Team ratingContext
6.91
10.70
FoulsContext
12.50
11.80
Fouls sufferedContext
15.30
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
2.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.95
xGVia Att/Def
1.09
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.18
+0.75
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
100%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
18.50
ShotsContext
10.80
7.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
40%
On target shareContext
37%
11.80
Shots in the boxContext
7.60
65%
Box shareContext
66%
15%
ConversionContext
10%
2.14
OffsidesContext
2.00
9.40
Shots allowedContext
11.50
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
3.13
BlocksContext
3.40
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
71%
Save rateContext
71%
68%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
619
PassesContext
534
555
Accurate passesContext
467
90%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
7.07
Team ratingContext
6.91
10.30
FoulsContext
12.50
11.90
Fouls sufferedContext
15.30
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Barcelona
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,008 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Elche
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel425 km835 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Barcelona |
Elche |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1La Liga 2025-2026, 26 Oct | 8.1La Liga 2025-2026, 25 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 425 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,008 km | 835 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 5.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Barcelona
Confirmed XI
25W. Szczęsny(G)
3Alejandro Balde
24Eric García
4R. Araujo
23J. Koundé
21F. de Jong
17Marc Casadó
14M. Rashford
16Fermín López
10Lamine Yamal
7Ferran Torres
Elche
Confirmed XI
13Iñaki Peña(G)
15Alvaro Núñez
6Bigas
22D. Affengruber
3Adrià Pedrosa
8Marc Aguado
10Rafa Mir
14Aleix Febas
16Martim Neto
11Germán Valera
9André Silva
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Barcelona
Scores -0.09 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Elche
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Barcelona-1.7 pp
- Draw+0.9 pp
- Elche+0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Barcelona · Home
3.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-0-0
- Scored
- 3.25
- Conceded
- 0.50
Elche · Away
0.60points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-3-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.60
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Barcelona | Elche |
|---|---|---|
| Sevilla | L 1–4 A | D 2–2 A |
| Oviedo | W 3–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Levante | W 3–2 A | W 2–0 H |
| Points | 6 of 9 · 2.00 per game | 7 of 9 · 2.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
6 Barcelona wins0 draws0 Elche wins
Goals per game2.83 – 0.50
Over 2.583%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets67% · 0%
- 1 Apr 2023Elche0–4Barcelona
- 17 Sep 2022Barcelona3–0Elche
- 6 Mar 2022Elche1–2Barcelona
- 18 Dec 2021Barcelona3–2Elche
- 24 Feb 2021Barcelona3–0Elche
- 24 Jan 2021Elche0–2Barcelona
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Barcelona | Elche | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.70 | 2.10 | 3.38 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 90% | 30% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Barcelona | Elche | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.70 | 2.10 | 3.38 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 90% | 30% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Barcelona | Elche | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.67 | 3.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.33 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 12.00 | 7.80 | 9.77 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.10 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 4.80 | 4.34 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Barcelona | Elche | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.50 | 3.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.30 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 11.80 | 7.80 | 9.77 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 4.80 | 4.34 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Miguel Sesma Espinosa Spain · 5 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.60league 4.07
Red cards0.00league 0.27
Cards 5+20%league 45%
Fouls26.0league 24.7
Penalties0.00league 0.36
Home wins80%league 48%
BarcelonaNo previous matches with this referee.
Elche1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W21 Sep 25H · Oviedo1–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Barcelona10 games · scored 25 · conceded 12
3
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
5
5
31-45
6
46-60
3
1
61-75
6
2
76-90
Elche10 games · scored 11 · conceded 10
2
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
Barcelona10 games · scored 27 · conceded 13
3
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
5
5
31-45
5
1
46-60
6
61-75
6
4
76-90
Elche10 games · scored 11 · conceded 10
2
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
