Barcelona
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Barcelona were clear favourites.
Barcelona were the stronger side on L90 Strength (91 vs 45). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Barcelona. Barcelona had 6.9 days of rest, Espanyol 7 and had to travel 8 km.
Away travel8 kmRest days6.9 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Barcelona82%
Draw12%
Espanyol6%
Barcelona79%
Draw14%
Espanyol7%
Barcelona83%
Draw12%
Espanyol5%
Barcelona76%
Draw15%
Espanyol8%
Barcelona82%
Draw12%
Espanyol6%
Over 2.5 69%
Both score 46%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Barcelona)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainAlejandro Hernandez
- Cards per match 5.3
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 133
Team strength
Barcelona
Espanyol
91
L90 StrengthIn forecast
45
93
Current StrengthIn forecast
44
97
AttackIn forecast
36
92
DefenceIn forecast
51
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEspanyol
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BarcelonaEspanyol
2.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
0.97
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.47
2.45
xGVia Att/Def
1.25
1.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.34
+0.22
Goals minus xGContext
-0.05
100%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
27%
19.50
ShotsContext
12.47
7.03
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
36%
On target shareContext
33%
12.53
Shots in the boxContext
7.83
65%
Box shareContext
62%
14%
ConversionContext
10%
2.56
OffsidesContext
2.32
8.97
Shots allowedContext
12.60
3.73
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.87
2.31
BlocksContext
3.45
2.79
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.61
73%
Save rateContext
72%
69%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
640
PassesContext
351
574
Accurate passesContext
279
90%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
7.11
Team ratingContext
6.76
9.60
FoulsContext
13.47
11.70
Fouls sufferedContext
12.57
1.33
Yellow cardsContext
2.17
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.07
2.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.20
2.21
xGVia Att/Def
0.99
1.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.75
+0.29
Goals minus xGContext
+0.31
90%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
16.70
ShotsContext
11.90
6.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
38%
On target shareContext
31%
11.80
Shots in the boxContext
6.78
72%
Box shareContext
56%
15%
ConversionContext
11%
2.22
OffsidesContext
2.75
8.30
Shots allowedContext
13.70
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.30
1.88
BlocksContext
3.00
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.33
69%
Save rateContext
65%
65%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
607
PassesContext
367
545
Accurate passesContext
293
90%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.09
Team ratingContext
6.64
8.70
FoulsContext
13.50
12.20
Fouls sufferedContext
13.10
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Barcelona
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,008 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Espanyol
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel8 km1,641 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Barcelona |
Espanyol |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 5 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9La Liga 2025-2026, 4 Apr | 7La Liga 2025-2026, 4 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 8 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,008 km | 1,641 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 11.1 | 12.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Barcelona
Confirmed XI
13Joan García(G)
3Alejandro Balde
18Gerard Martín
5Pau Cubarsí
4R. Araujo
8Pedri
24Eric García
6Gavi
16Fermín López
10Lamine Yamal
7Ferran Torres
Espanyol
Confirmed XI
13M. Dmitrović(G)
22Carlos Romero
6L. Cabrera
5F. Calero Villa
23O. El Hilali
24T. Dolan
10Pol Lozano
4Urko González
16C. Ngonge
8Edu Expósito
19Kike García
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Barcelona
Scores -0.08 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Espanyol
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Barcelona-0.9 pp
- Draw+0.5 pp
- Espanyol+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Barcelona · Home
3.00points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 15-0-0
- Scored
- 3.13
- Conceded
- 0.53
Espanyol · Away
1.13points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-5-6
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 1.53
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Barcelona | Espanyol |
|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | W 2–1 AW 3–1 H | L 2–4 AW 2–1 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Sevilla | W 5–2 HL 1–4 A | W 2–1 H |
| Athletic Club | W 1–0 AW 4–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Villarreal | W 4–1 HW 2–0 A | L 1–4 AL 0–2 H |
| Levante | W 3–0 HW 3–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Girona | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H | L 0–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Mallorca | W 3–0 HW 3–0 A | L 1–2 AW 3–2 H |
| Elche | W 3–1 AW 3–1 H | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Oviedo | W 3–0 HW 3–1 A | D 1–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Real Sociedad | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| Osasuna | W 2–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Real Betis | W 5–3 A | D 0–0 AL 1–2 H |
| Alaves | W 3–1 H | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Celta Vigo | W 4–2 A | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Real Madrid | L 1–2 A | L 0–2 A |
| Getafe | W 3–0 H | L 1–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Valencia | W 6–0 H | L 2–3 AD 2–2 H |
| Points | 73 of 87 · 2.52 per game | 38 of 87 · 1.31 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
5 Barcelona wins2 draws0 Espanyol wins
Goals per game2.14 – 0.86
Over 2.543%
Both scored57%
Clean sheets43% · 0%
- 3 Jan 2026Espanyol0–2Barcelona
- 15 May 2025Espanyol0–2Barcelona
- 3 Nov 2024Barcelona3–1Espanyol
- 14 May 2023Espanyol2–4Barcelona
- 31 Dec 2022Barcelona1–1Espanyol
- 13 Feb 2022Espanyol2–2Barcelona
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Barcelona | Espanyol | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.67 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.97 | 1.47 | |
| Match goals | 3.63 | 2.67 | 3.56 |
| Over 1.5 | 93% | 77% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 53% | 69% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 27% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 27% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 20% | |
| Games | 30 | 30 |
| Barcelona | Espanyol | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.60 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.70 | 2.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 3.50 | 3.56 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 80% | 69% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 90% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Barcelona | Espanyol | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.03 | 4.52 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.28 | 4.52 | |
| Match total | 11.31 | 9.04 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 83% 24/29 | 45% 13/29 | |
| Over 9.5 | 66% 19/29 | 38% 11/29 | |
| Over 10.5 | 55% 16/29 | 31% 9/29 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.63 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 4.03 | 4.70 | 4.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 47% 14/30 | 67% 20/30 | |
| Over 4.5 | 37% 11/30 | 57% 17/30 | |
| Barcelona | Espanyol | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.20 | 5.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.80 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 9.11 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 2.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 4.90 | 4.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alejandro Hernandez Spain · 133 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.03league 4.24
Red cards0.26league 0.28
Cards 5+59%league 47%
Fouls24.9league 24.5
Penalties0.31league 0.36
Home wins41%league 49%
Barcelona16 with this referee
Record9-6-1
Cards · opp.3.3 · 3.5
Pens for · against2 · 2
Reds3
- W28 Sep 25H · Real Sociedad2–11
- W23 Aug 25A · Levante3–21
- W11 May 25H · Real Madrid4–34
- W9 Feb 25A · Sevilla4–13
- L4 May 24A · Girona2–43
Espanyol11 with this referee
Record3-3-5
Cards · opp.2.8 · 1.9
Pens for · against2 · 4
Reds3
- L24 Jan 26A · Valencia2–35
- L8 Nov 25H · Villarreal0–20
- W15 Sep 25H · Mallorca3–23
- W4 Apr 25A · Rayo Vallecano4–02
- L23 Nov 24A · Girona1–43
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Barcelona30 games · scored 80 · conceded 29
14
5
0-15
8
4
16-30
15
10
31-45
13
1
46-60
14
3
61-75
16
6
76-90
Espanyol30 games · scored 36 · conceded 44
5
4
0-15
1
3
16-30
6
12
31-45
10
9
46-60
4
8
61-75
10
8
76-90
Barcelona10 games · scored 25 · conceded 11
3
1
0-15
4
1
16-30
5
3
31-45
5
1
46-60
4
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
Espanyol10 games · scored 13 · conceded 22
3
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
6
31-45
2
5
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
