Barcelona
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Barcelona82.2%fair odds 1.22
Draw12.2%fair odds 8.17
Espanyol5.6%fair odds 17.90
Expected goals2.89 – 0.67total 3.56
Likeliest score2–011.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Espanyol
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Barcelona ↓ · Espanyol → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.9 | 8.0 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 11.4 | 7.7 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 8.3 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 3.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Barcelona goals, columns Espanyol goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–011.9%8.43
- 3–011.4%8.74
- 4–08.3%12.09
- 2–18.0%12.57
- 1–07.9%12.63
- 3–17.7%13.04
- 1–15.8%17.26
- 4–15.5%18.04
- 5–04.8%20.90
- 5–13.2%31.18
Winning margin
41.6%
Barcelona by 3+
fair 2.40
21.7%
Barcelona by 2
fair 4.62
18.9%
Barcelona by 1
fair 5.29
12.2%
Draw
fair 8.17
4.2%
Espanyol by 1
fair 24.06
1.2%
Espanyol by 2
fair 85.97
0.3%
Espanyol by 3+
fair 375.85
Goal distribution
Total goals
3%0
10%1
18%2
21%3
19%4
29%5+
Barcelona goals
6%0
16%1
23%2
22%3
33%4+
Espanyol goals
51%0
34%1
11%2
3%3
0%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona win | 82.2% | 81.8% | +0.4 pp |
| Draw | 12.2% | 12.3% | -0.1 pp |
| Espanyol win | 5.6% | 5.9% | -0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 69.0% | 70.3% | -1.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 46.4% | 48.5% | -2.0 pp |
| Expected goals Barcelona | 2.89 | 2.92 | -0.03 |
| Expected goals Espanyol | 0.67 | 0.71 | -0.04 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Barcelona win82.2%1.22
- Draw12.2%8.17
- Espanyol win5.6%17.90
- Double chance Barcelona or draw94.4%1.06
- Double chance Barcelona or Espanyol87.8%1.14
- Double chance Espanyol or draw17.8%5.61
- Draw no bet Barcelona93.6%1.07
- Draw no bet Espanyol6.4%15.71
Goals
- Over 0.596.9%1.03
- Over 1.587.3%1.14
- Over 2.569.0%1.45
- Over 3.547.7%2.10
- Over 4.528.6%3.49
- Under 1.512.7%7.90
- Under 2.531.0%3.23
- Under 3.552.3%1.91
Both teams to score
- Yes46.4%2.15
- No53.6%1.87
- Yes and over 2.540.6%2.46
- Barcelona win and yes34.2%2.93
- Draw and yes9.1%10.98
- Espanyol win and yes3.2%31.57
Team goals
- Barcelona over 0.594.5%1.06
- Barcelona over 1.578.4%1.28
- Barcelona over 2.555.2%1.81
- Espanyol over 0.548.8%2.05
- Espanyol over 1.514.6%6.87
- Espanyol over 2.53.1%32.65
- Barcelona clean sheet51.2%1.95
- Espanyol clean sheet5.5%18.03
- Barcelona win to nil48.0%2.08
- Espanyol win to nil2.4%41.36
Handicap
- Barcelona −1.563.3%1.58
- Barcelona −2.541.6%2.40
- Espanyol +1.536.7%2.72
- Espanyol +2.558.4%1.71
- Espanyol −1.51.4%69.96
- Barcelona +1.598.6%1.01
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored303
Favourite won53.5%
Avg chance given to result41.3%
1X2 Brier0.576
Over 2.5 called right58.1%
BTTS called right57.1%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 61 | 37.8% | 36.1% |
| 40–50% | 118 | 44.5% | 47.5% |
| 50–60% | 59 | 54.7% | 61.0% |
| 60–70% | 34 | 64.0% | 61.8% |
| 70–80% | 25 | 74.4% | 84.0% |
| 80%+ | 6 | 82.9% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 243 of 303 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5773 | 0.5706 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.1% | 41.9% |
| Favourite won | 53.9% | 54.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 243 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 303 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.