Barcelona
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Barcelona were clear favourites.
Barcelona were the stronger side on L90 Strength (91 vs 49). Barcelona usually keep the ball (69% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Barcelona had 7 days of rest, Getafe 8.3 and had to travel 510 km.
Away travel510 kmRest days7 · 8.3Matches / 14d1 · 1
Barcelona78%
Draw15%
Getafe7%
Barcelona78%
Draw15%
Getafe7%
Barcelona78%
Draw15%
Getafe7%
Barcelona71%
Draw18%
Getafe10%
Barcelona77%
Draw15%
Getafe8%
Over 2.5 62%
Both score 45%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Barcelona)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainRicardo De Burgos Bengoetxea
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 30
Team strength
Barcelona
Getafe
91
L90 StrengthIn forecast
49
93
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
97
AttackIn forecast
27
92
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGetafe
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BarcelonaGetafe
3.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
0.75
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
2.29
xGVia Att/Def
1.03
1.07
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.55
+0.96
Goals minus xGContext
+0.47
100%
Scored inContext
75%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
21.25
ShotsContext
9.75
7.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.25
35%
On target shareContext
33%
12.75
Shots in the boxContext
5.50
61%
Box shareContext
55%
15%
ConversionContext
15%
3.00
OffsidesContext
2.33
6.50
Shots allowedContext
8.25
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.75
2.00
BlocksContext
2.00
2.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.25
79%
Save rateContext
82%
70%
PossessionIn forecast
38%
607
PassesContext
278
541
Accurate passesContext
205
89%
Pass accuracyContext
74%
7.19
Team ratingContext
6.85
10.50
FoulsContext
14.50
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
15.00
0.75
Yellow cardsContext
1.75
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
2.24
xGVia Att/Def
1.00
1.48
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.04
+0.66
Goals minus xGContext
-0.10
100%
Scored inContext
50%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
19.70
ShotsContext
10.40
7.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.80
36%
On target shareContext
27%
11.90
Shots in the boxContext
6.60
61%
Box shareContext
63%
15%
ConversionContext
9%
2.14
OffsidesContext
2.50
8.20
Shots allowedContext
10.10
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
2.00
BlocksContext
1.90
2.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.75
70%
Save rateContext
75%
70%
PossessionIn forecast
36%
634
PassesContext
271
565
Accurate passesContext
189
89%
Pass accuracyContext
70%
7.21
Team ratingContext
6.83
11.10
FoulsContext
13.80
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.60
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Barcelona
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Getafe
Rest8.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel510 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Barcelona |
Getafe |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7La Liga 2025-2026, 14 Sep | 8.3La Liga 2025-2026, 13 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 510 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4 | 2.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Barcelona
Confirmed XI
13Joan García(G)
18Gerard Martín
15A. Christensen
24Eric García
23J. Koundé
20Dani Olmo
21F. de Jong
8Pedri
7Ferran Torres
9R. Lewandowski
11Raphinha
Getafe
Confirmed XI
13David Soria(G)
16Diego Rico
2D. Dakonam
22Domingos Duarte
3A. Abqar
17Kiko Femenía
8M. Arambarri
5Luis Milla
6Mario Martín
9Borja Mayoral
23Adrian Liso
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Barcelona
Scores -0.07 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Getafe
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Barcelona-0.7 pp
- Draw+0.3 pp
- Getafe+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Barcelona · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 6.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Getafe · Away
2.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-1
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Barcelona | Getafe |
|---|---|---|
| Valencia | W 6–0 H | L 0–3 A |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
5 Barcelona wins4 draws1 Getafe wins
Goals per game1.40 – 0.50
Over 2.530%
Both scored30%
Clean sheets60% · 40%
- 18 Jan 2025Getafe1–1Barcelona
- 25 Sep 2024Barcelona1–0Getafe
- 24 Feb 2024Barcelona4–0Getafe
- 13 Aug 2023Getafe0–0Barcelona
- 16 Apr 2023Getafe0–0Barcelona
- 22 Jan 2023Barcelona1–0Getafe
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Barcelona | Getafe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.25 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.75 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 2.50 | 3.20 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 50% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 25% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 25% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Barcelona | Getafe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.25 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.75 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 2.50 | 3.20 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 50% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 25% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 25% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Barcelona | Getafe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.33 | 5.75 | |
| Match total | 10.33 | 9.75 | 9.45 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 3/3 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 1/3 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 1/3 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.75 | 1.75 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.50 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 4.25 | 5.25 | 4.13 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 3/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 2/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Barcelona | Getafe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.22 | 3.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.11 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 10.33 | 8.70 | 9.45 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 5.20 | 4.13 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea Spain · 30 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.43league 3.80
Red cards0.23league 0.30
Cards 5+27%league 38%
Fouls21.8league 24.4
Penalties0.23league 0.34
Home wins50%league 48%
Barcelona1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W29 Apr 24H · Valencia4–21
Getafe4 with this referee
Record1-0-3
Cards · opp.3.3 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds2
- L18 Apr 25A · Espanyol0–13
- L12 May 24A · Cadiz0–12
- L1 Feb 24H · Real Madrid0–21
- W6 Nov 23H · Cadiz1–07
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Barcelona4 games · scored 13 · conceded 3
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
4
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
76-90
Getafe4 games · scored 6 · conceded 4
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Barcelona10 games · scored 29 · conceded 14
2
4
0-15
4
1
16-30
6
2
31-45
8
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
7
4
76-90
Getafe10 games · scored 9 · conceded 14
2
2
0-15
4
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
61-75
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
