Barcelona
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Barcelona77.6%fair odds 1.29
Draw15.2%fair odds 6.59
Getafe7.3%fair odds 13.78
Expected goals2.54 – 0.67total 3.20
Likeliest score2–013.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Getafe
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Barcelona ↓ · Getafe → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 7.2 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 13.1 | 8.7 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 11.1 | 7.4 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Barcelona goals, columns Getafe goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–013.1%7.65
- 3–011.1%9.04
- 1–09.9%10.06
- 2–18.7%11.48
- 3–17.4%13.57
- 1–17.2%13.83
- 4–07.0%14.25
- 4–14.7%21.40
- 0–04.4%22.59
- 5–03.6%28.09
Winning margin
33.9%
Barcelona by 3+
fair 2.95
22.2%
Barcelona by 2
fair 4.51
21.5%
Barcelona by 1
fair 4.65
15.2%
Draw
fair 6.59
5.4%
Getafe by 1
fair 18.61
1.5%
Getafe by 2
fair 65.37
0.4%
Getafe by 3+
fair 282.98
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
12%1
21%2
22%3
18%4
22%5+
Barcelona goals
8%0
20%1
25%2
22%3
25%4+
Getafe goals
51%0
34%1
11%2
3%3
0%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona win | 77.6% | 76.9% | +0.7 pp |
| Draw | 15.2% | 15.3% | -0.1 pp |
| Getafe win | 7.3% | 7.8% | -0.6 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 62.1% | 63.7% | -1.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 45.2% | 47.6% | -2.4 pp |
| Expected goals Barcelona | 2.54 | 2.56 | -0.03 |
| Expected goals Getafe | 0.67 | 0.72 | -0.05 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Barcelona win77.6%1.29
- Draw15.2%6.59
- Getafe win7.3%13.78
- Double chance Barcelona or draw92.7%1.08
- Double chance Barcelona or Getafe84.8%1.18
- Double chance Getafe or draw22.4%4.46
- Draw no bet Barcelona91.4%1.09
- Draw no bet Getafe8.6%11.69
Goals
- Over 0.595.6%1.05
- Over 1.583.3%1.20
- Over 2.562.1%1.61
- Over 3.539.8%2.51
- Over 4.522.0%4.55
- Under 1.516.7%5.98
- Under 2.537.9%2.64
- Under 3.560.2%1.66
Both teams to score
- Yes45.2%2.21
- No54.8%1.82
- Yes and over 2.537.9%2.64
- Barcelona win and yes30.6%3.26
- Draw and yes10.7%9.31
- Getafe win and yes3.8%26.50
Team goals
- Barcelona over 0.592.1%1.09
- Barcelona over 1.572.0%1.39
- Barcelona over 2.546.6%2.15
- Getafe over 0.548.6%2.06
- Getafe over 1.514.4%6.94
- Getafe over 2.53.0%33.16
- Barcelona clean sheet51.4%1.95
- Getafe clean sheet7.9%12.64
- Barcelona win to nil46.9%2.13
- Getafe win to nil3.5%28.72
Handicap
- Barcelona −1.556.1%1.78
- Barcelona −2.533.9%2.95
- Getafe +1.543.9%2.28
- Getafe +2.566.1%1.51
- Getafe −1.51.9%53.10
- Barcelona +1.598.1%1.02
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored50
Favourite won50.0%
Avg chance given to result41.6%
1X2 Brier0.572
Over 2.5 called right58.0%
BTTS called right66.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 7 | 37.9% | 28.6% |
| 40–50% | 18 | 44.3% | 33.3% |
| 50–60% | 14 | 53.6% | 57.1% |
| 60–70% | 5 | 65.1% | 80.0% |
| 70–80% | 6 | 73.5% | 83.3% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 19 of 50 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5625 | 0.5753 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.6% | 41.5% |
| Favourite won | 52.6% | 52.6% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 19 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 50 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.