Barcelona
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Barcelona were clear favourites.
Barcelona were the stronger side on L90 Strength (92 vs 49). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Barcelona. Barcelona were without Joan García and Raphinha. Getafe were without M. Satriano and Kiko Femenía. Barcelona had 20.9 days of rest, Getafe 20.2 and had to travel 510 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel510 kmRest days20.9 · 20.2Matches / 14d0 · 0
Barcelona89%
Draw8%
Getafe4%
Barcelona80%
Draw13%
Getafe7%
Barcelona89%
Draw8%
Getafe4%
Barcelona84%
Draw11%
Getafe6%
Barcelona87%
Draw9%
Getafe4%
Over 2.5 78%
Both score 47%
Likeliest score 3–0
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Barcelona)
23°CMainly clear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 9 km/h
- Humidity 39%
Referee · SpainJesus Gil Manzano
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.39
- Matches 61
Team strength
Barcelona
Getafe
92
L90 StrengthIn forecast
49
93
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
97
AttackIn forecast
27
92
DefenceIn forecast
59
95
Form indexContext
35
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGetafe
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BarcelonaGetafe
4.43
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.57
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
4.07
xGVia Att/Def
0.69
1.09
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.32
+0.36
Goals minus xGContext
-0.12
100%
Scored inContext
57%
43%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
21.43
ShotsContext
11.71
8.29
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.71
39%
On target shareContext
23%
15.57
Shots in the boxContext
6.29
75%
Box shareContext
52%
21%
ConversionContext
5%
3.57
OffsidesContext
2.50
7.29
Shots allowedContext
13.29
3.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.43
2.00
BlocksContext
3.71
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.29
68%
Save rateContext
74%
68%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
666
PassesContext
314
602
Accurate passesContext
238
90%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
7.46
Team ratingContext
6.78
9.57
FoulsContext
14.71
10.14
Fouls sufferedContext
13.86
1.14
Yellow cardsContext
3.14
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.14
4.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
3.46
xGVia Att/Def
0.67
1.12
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.06
+0.54
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
100%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
19.80
ShotsContext
9.70
7.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.89
39%
On target shareContext
27%
14.00
Shots in the boxContext
5.30
73%
Box shareContext
53%
20%
ConversionContext
8%
3.10
OffsidesContext
2.00
8.10
Shots allowedContext
12.20
3.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
2.33
BlocksContext
3.30
2.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
62%
Save rateContext
76%
69%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
685
PassesContext
305
622
Accurate passesContext
226
91%
Pass accuracyContext
74%
7.32
Team ratingContext
6.82
9.20
FoulsContext
14.80
10.20
Fouls sufferedContext
15.10
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Barcelona
WWWWW
Rest20.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 95 · 15 pts vs 6.6 for an average club · +2.8 vs expected
Getafe
LDDLW
Rest20.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel510 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 35 · 5 pts vs 6.7 for an average club · -1.3 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Barcelona |
Getafe |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 20.9La Liga 2026-2027, 19 Sep | 20.2La Liga 2026-2027, 20 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 510 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 3 | 0 / 0 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.1 | 9.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Barcelona
Confirmed XI
1Joan García(G)
12Xavi Espart
18Gerard Martín
24Eric García
23J. Koundé
6Gavi
16Rodri
20Dani Olmo
17A. Gordon
9G. de Jesus
10Lamine Yamal
Getafe
Confirmed XI
13David Soria(G)
22J. Mojica
24Z. Romero
8N. Gudelj
2D. Dakonam
17Kiko Femenía
11Ramon Terrats
6Mario Martín
16Francho Serrano
21Andrés García
20Ivan Azón Monzón
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Barcelona
Scores -0.07 · concedes +0.02 goals
Attack line −20.7% · Defence line −18.2% of weighted minutes
- DEF Joan García Starter 7.08 Def −14.9%
- ATT Raphinha Core 7.86 Att −18.1%
- MID F. de Jong Rotation 7.08 Att −1.9% Def −1.4%
- DEF A. Christensen Rotation 6.64 Def −1.2%
- MID R. Bardghji Rotation 6.55 Att −0.8% Def −0.6%
Getafe
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.07 goals
Attack line −21.1% · Defence line −10.3% of weighted minutes
- ATT M. Satriano Starter 6.77 Att −20.8%
- DEF Kiko Femenía Starter 6.55 Def −7.7%
- DEF A. Abqar Rotation 6.57 Def −2.6%
- ATT Juanmi Depth 6.58 Att −0.2%
Total impact vs full squads
- Barcelona-0.1 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Getafe+0.1 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Barcelona · Home
3.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-0
- Scored
- 4.67
- Conceded
- 1.33
Getafe · Away
0.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-3
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Barcelona | Getafe |
|---|---|---|
| Racing Santander | W 7–2 H | W 1–0 H |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings
6 Barcelona wins4 draws0 Getafe wins
Goals per game1.40 – 0.20
Over 2.530%
Both scored20%
Clean sheets80% · 30%
- 25 Apr 2026Getafe0–2Barcelona
- 21 Sep 2025Barcelona3–0Getafe
- 18 Jan 2025Getafe1–1Barcelona
- 25 Sep 2024Barcelona1–0Getafe
- 24 Feb 2024Barcelona4–0Getafe
- 13 Aug 2023Getafe0–0Barcelona
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Barcelona | Getafe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 4.43 | 0.57 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 5.43 | 1.57 | 4.16 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 43% | |
| Over 2.5 | 86% | 14% | 78% |
| Over 3.5 | 86% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 29% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 43% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Barcelona | Getafe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 4.00 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 5.20 | 1.70 | 4.16 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 40% | |
| Over 2.5 | 90% | 20% | 78% |
| Over 3.5 | 90% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Barcelona | Getafe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.67 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 5.29 | |
| Match total | 8.67 | 9.29 | 9.73 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 2/6 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 2/6 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 2/6 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.14 | 3.57 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.29 | 2.57 | |
| Match total | 2.43 | 6.14 | 4.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 29% 2/7 | 100% 7/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 14% 1/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Barcelona | Getafe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.67 | 3.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.33 | 4.89 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 8.67 | 9.73 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.20 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 2.40 | 5.70 | 4.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jesus Gil Manzano Spain · 61 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.54league 4.21
Red cards0.25league 0.27
Cards 5+56%league 52%
Fouls25.1league 24.6
Penalties0.39league 0.37
Home wins41%league 44%
Barcelona5 with this referee
Record3-0-2
Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L18 Jan 26A · Real Sociedad1–23
- W18 Oct 25H · Girona2–11
- W19 May 24H · Rayo Vallecano3–04
- W21 Jan 24A · Real Betis4–22
- L28 Oct 23H · Real Madrid1–22
Getafe2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L13 Dec 25H · Espanyol0–15
- L3 May 24H · Athletic Club0–20
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Barcelona7 games · scored 31 · conceded 7
4
1
0-15
6
2
16-30
4
31-45
4
1
46-60
5
1
61-75
8
2
76-90
Getafe7 games · scored 4 · conceded 7
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
Barcelona10 games · scored 40 · conceded 12
5
1
0-15
8
2
16-30
4
31-45
5
1
46-60
8
4
61-75
10
4
76-90
Getafe10 games · scored 8 · conceded 9
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
