Barcelona
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Barcelona were clear favourites.
Barcelona were the stronger side on L90 Strength (91 vs 48). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Barcelona. Barcelona had 6.8 days of rest, Mallorca 4.8 and had to travel 207 km.
Away travel207 kmRest days6.8 · 4.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Barcelona81%
Draw13%
Mallorca6%
Barcelona78%
Draw15%
Mallorca7%
Barcelona82%
Draw12%
Mallorca6%
Barcelona75%
Draw16%
Mallorca9%
Barcelona80%
Draw13%
Mallorca7%
Over 2.5 67%
Both score 47%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Barcelona)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainAlejandro Quintero Gonzalez
- Cards per match 5.3
- Penalties per match 0.40
- Matches 15
Team strength
Barcelona
Mallorca
91
L90 StrengthIn forecast
48
93
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
97
AttackIn forecast
50
92
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMallorca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BarcelonaMallorca
2.73
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.27
1.05
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.55
2.50
xGVia Att/Def
1.03
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.58
+0.23
Goals minus xGContext
+0.24
100%
Scored inContext
77%
36%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
19.86
ShotsContext
9.91
7.32
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.91
37%
On target shareContext
39%
12.82
Shots in the boxContext
6.38
65%
Box shareContext
64%
14%
ConversionContext
13%
2.53
OffsidesContext
2.23
9.32
Shots allowedContext
14.00
3.77
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.86
2.68
BlocksContext
4.27
2.64
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.74
70%
Save rateContext
73%
69%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
629
PassesContext
365
561
Accurate passesContext
289
89%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
7.10
Team ratingContext
6.80
9.91
FoulsContext
10.95
12.09
Fouls sufferedContext
12.09
1.27
Yellow cardsContext
2.09
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.05
2.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
2.71
xGVia Att/Def
1.18
1.10
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
+0.09
Goals minus xGContext
+0.42
100%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
20.60
ShotsContext
9.10
8.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
39%
On target shareContext
44%
14.10
Shots in the boxContext
6.20
69%
Box shareContext
67%
14%
ConversionContext
18%
1.90
OffsidesContext
1.71
9.60
Shots allowedContext
14.00
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
2.89
BlocksContext
4.70
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
72%
Save rateContext
74%
71%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
645
PassesContext
352
575
Accurate passesContext
274
89%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
7.14
Team ratingContext
6.80
9.20
FoulsContext
10.70
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Barcelona
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km850 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Mallorca
Rest4.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel207 km1,098 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Barcelona |
Mallorca |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.8La Liga 2025-2026, 31 Jan | 4.8La Liga 2025-2026, 2 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 207 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 850 km | 1,098 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 9.2 | 8.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Barcelona
Confirmed XI
13Joan García(G)
3Alejandro Balde
24Eric García
5Pau Cubarsí
23J. Koundé
20Dani Olmo
17Marc Casadó
16Fermín López
14M. Rashford
9R. Lewandowski
10Lamine Yamal
Mallorca
Confirmed XI
1Leo Román(G)
22J. Mojica
24M. Valjent
27David López
23Pablo Maffeo
5Omar Mascarell
12Samú Costa
17J. Virgili
20Pablo Torre
2Mateu Morey
7V. Muriqi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Barcelona
Scores -0.08 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Mallorca
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Barcelona-1.1 pp
- Draw+0.7 pp
- Mallorca+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Barcelona · Home
3.00points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 10-0-0
- Scored
- 3.10
- Conceded
- 0.50
Mallorca · Away
0.45points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-8
- Scored
- 0.91
- Conceded
- 1.82
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Barcelona | Mallorca |
|---|---|---|
| Elche | W 3–1 AW 3–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| Oviedo | W 3–0 HW 3–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| Real Sociedad | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Espanyol | W 2–0 A | L 2–3 A |
| Villarreal | W 2–0 A | L 1–2 A |
| Osasuna | W 2–0 H | D 2–2 H |
| Real Betis | W 5–3 A | L 0–3 A |
| Atletico Madrid | W 3–1 H | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Alaves | W 3–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Athletic Club | W 4–0 H | W 3–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Celta Vigo | W 4–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Real Madrid | L 1–2 A | L 1–2 A |
| Girona | W 2–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Sevilla | L 1–4 A | W 4–1 HW 3–1 A |
| Getafe | W 3–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Valencia | W 6–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | D 1–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Levante | W 3–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 52 of 63 · 2.48 per game | 24 of 63 · 1.14 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
8 Barcelona wins1 draws0 Mallorca wins
Goals per game2.11 – 0.44
Over 2.556%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets67% · 0%
- 16 Aug 2025Mallorca0–3Barcelona
- 22 Apr 2025Barcelona1–0Mallorca
- 3 Dec 2024Mallorca1–5Barcelona
- 8 Mar 2024Barcelona1–0Mallorca
- 26 Sep 2023Mallorca2–2Barcelona
- 28 May 2023Barcelona3–0Mallorca
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Barcelona | Mallorca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.73 | 1.27 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.05 | 1.55 | |
| Match goals | 3.77 | 2.82 | 3.47 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 82% | |
| Over 2.5 | 82% | 64% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 27% | |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 68% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 36% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 23% | |
| Games | 22 | 22 |
| Barcelona | Mallorca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.80 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 3.20 | 3.47 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 80% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Barcelona | Mallorca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.00 | 3.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.48 | 6.86 | |
| Match total | 11.48 | 10.19 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 19/21 | 81% 17/21 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 14/21 | 52% 11/21 | |
| Over 10.5 | 62% 13/21 | 48% 10/21 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.36 | 2.23 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.73 | 2.27 | |
| Match total | 4.09 | 4.50 | 4.44 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 11/22 | 55% 12/22 | |
| Over 4.5 | 41% 9/22 | 36% 8/22 | |
| Barcelona | Mallorca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 8.22 | 3.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.56 | 7.11 | |
| Match total | 11.78 | 10.22 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 9/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 89% 8/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 4.60 | 4.44 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alejandro Quintero Gonzalez Spain · 15 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.67league 4.16
Red cards0.60league 0.28
Cards 5+53%league 45%
Fouls25.3league 24.6
Penalties0.40league 0.37
Home wins27%league 47%
BarcelonaNo previous matches with this referee.
Mallorca2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.5.0 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- D19 Dec 25A · Valencia1–13
- L4 Oct 25A · Athletic Club1–27
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Barcelona22 games · scored 60 · conceded 23
12
5
0-15
4
4
16-30
11
8
31-45
10
46-60
11
2
61-75
12
4
76-90
Mallorca22 games · scored 28 · conceded 34
4
6
0-15
4
7
16-30
3
9
31-45
1
2
46-60
7
2
61-75
9
8
76-90
Barcelona10 games · scored 28 · conceded 10
4
3
0-15
2
16-30
5
2
31-45
7
46-60
8
1
61-75
4
2
76-90
Mallorca10 games · scored 16 · conceded 16
3
3
0-15
3
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
4
2
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
