Barcelona
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Barcelona80.6%fair odds 1.24
Draw13.1%fair odds 7.61
Mallorca6.2%fair odds 16.12
Expected goals2.79 – 0.68total 3.47
Likeliest score2–012.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Mallorca
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Barcelona ↓ · Mallorca → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.1 | 8.3 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 11.2 | 7.7 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 3.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Barcelona goals, columns Mallorca goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–012.1%8.28
- 3–011.2%8.91
- 1–08.3%11.98
- 2–18.3%12.12
- 4–07.8%12.78
- 3–17.7%13.04
- 1–16.2%16.04
- 4–15.3%18.70
- 5–04.4%22.91
- 0–03.4%29.24
Winning margin
39.1%
Barcelona by 3+
fair 2.55
21.8%
Barcelona by 2
fair 4.58
19.7%
Barcelona by 1
fair 5.08
13.1%
Draw
fair 7.61
4.6%
Mallorca by 1
fair 21.81
1.3%
Mallorca by 2
fair 76.30
0.3%
Mallorca by 3+
fair 325.42
Goal distribution
Total goals
3%0
10%1
19%2
22%3
19%4
27%5+
Barcelona goals
6%0
17%1
24%2
22%3
31%4+
Mallorca goals
50%0
35%1
12%2
3%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona win | 80.6% | 80.0% | +0.6 pp |
| Draw | 13.1% | 13.3% | -0.2 pp |
| Mallorca win | 6.2% | 6.6% | -0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 67.4% | 68.4% | -1.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 46.8% | 48.7% | -1.9 pp |
| Expected goals Barcelona | 2.79 | 2.80 | -0.01 |
| Expected goals Mallorca | 0.68 | 0.72 | -0.04 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Barcelona win80.6%1.24
- Draw13.1%7.61
- Mallorca win6.2%16.12
- Double chance Barcelona or draw93.8%1.07
- Double chance Barcelona or Mallorca86.9%1.15
- Double chance Mallorca or draw19.4%5.17
- Draw no bet Barcelona92.9%1.08
- Draw no bet Mallorca7.1%14.00
Goals
- Over 0.596.6%1.04
- Over 1.586.4%1.16
- Over 2.567.4%1.48
- Over 3.545.7%2.19
- Over 4.526.9%3.72
- Under 1.513.6%7.36
- Under 2.532.6%3.07
- Under 3.554.3%1.84
Both teams to score
- Yes46.8%2.14
- No53.2%1.88
- Yes and over 2.540.5%2.47
- Barcelona win and yes33.6%2.98
- Draw and yes9.7%10.28
- Mallorca win and yes3.5%28.80
Team goals
- Barcelona over 0.593.8%1.07
- Barcelona over 1.576.7%1.30
- Barcelona over 2.552.8%1.89
- Mallorca over 0.549.5%2.02
- Mallorca over 1.515.0%6.67
- Mallorca over 2.53.2%31.11
- Barcelona clean sheet50.5%1.98
- Mallorca clean sheet6.2%16.25
- Barcelona win to nil47.1%2.12
- Mallorca win to nil2.7%36.60
Handicap
- Barcelona −1.561.0%1.64
- Barcelona −2.539.1%2.55
- Mallorca +1.539.0%2.56
- Mallorca +2.560.9%1.64
- Mallorca −1.51.6%61.81
- Barcelona +1.598.4%1.02
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored220
Favourite won54.5%
Avg chance given to result41.8%
1X2 Brier0.565
Over 2.5 called right59.1%
BTTS called right56.8%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 38 | 37.9% | 39.5% |
| 40–50% | 95 | 44.6% | 46.3% |
| 50–60% | 41 | 54.7% | 61.0% |
| 60–70% | 23 | 64.5% | 65.2% |
| 70–80% | 20 | 74.6% | 90.0% |
| 80%+ | 3 | 83.5% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 189 of 220 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5627 | 0.5598 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.8% | 42.4% |
| Favourite won | 55.6% | 55.6% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 189 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 220 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.