Barcelona
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Barcelona were clear favourites.
Barcelona were the stronger side on L90 Strength (90 vs 51). Barcelona usually keep the ball (66% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Barcelona had 7 days of rest, Osasuna 4.9 and had to travel 352 km.
Away travel352 kmRest days7 · 4.9Matches / 14d2 · 1
Barcelona76%
Draw16%
Osasuna8%
Barcelona75%
Draw16%
Osasuna9%
Barcelona75%
Draw16%
Osasuna8%
Barcelona69%
Draw19%
Osasuna11%
Barcelona75%
Draw16%
Osasuna9%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 46%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Barcelona)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainAdrian Cordero Vega
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.45
- Matches 11
Team strength
Barcelona
Osasuna
90
L90 StrengthIn forecast
51
93
Current StrengthIn forecast
46
97
AttackIn forecast
50
92
DefenceIn forecast
50
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisOsasuna
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BarcelonaOsasuna
2.94
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.93
1.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
2.25
xGVia Att/Def
1.07
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.19
+0.69
Goals minus xGContext
-0.14
100%
Scored inContext
60%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
27%
19.44
ShotsContext
10.40
7.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.64
39%
On target shareContext
33%
12.13
Shots in the boxContext
7.69
63%
Box shareContext
69%
15%
ConversionContext
9%
2.69
OffsidesContext
1.57
9.31
Shots allowedContext
12.47
3.63
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.93
2.57
BlocksContext
3.46
2.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.67
66%
Save rateContext
74%
67%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
624
PassesContext
384
557
Accurate passesContext
307
89%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.06
Team ratingContext
6.87
10.44
FoulsContext
12.67
12.06
Fouls sufferedContext
11.13
1.38
Yellow cardsContext
2.13
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.13
2.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
2.10
xGVia Att/Def
1.00
1.52
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.15
+0.70
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
90%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
17.00
ShotsContext
11.40
6.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
37%
On target shareContext
31%
10.80
Shots in the boxContext
7.90
63%
Box shareContext
71%
17%
ConversionContext
9%
2.63
OffsidesContext
1.75
11.30
Shots allowedContext
11.00
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
2.60
BlocksContext
3.13
2.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
61%
Save rateContext
70%
64%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
623
PassesContext
396
552
Accurate passesContext
317
89%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.01
Team ratingContext
6.81
9.60
FoulsContext
12.60
12.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.40
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Barcelona
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,656 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Osasuna
Rest4.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel352 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Barcelona |
Osasuna |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7La Liga 2025-2026, 6 Dec | 4.9La Liga 2025-2026, 8 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 352 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,656 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.9 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Barcelona
Confirmed XI
13Joan García(G)
3Alejandro Balde
18Gerard Martín
5Pau Cubarsí
23J. Koundé
8Pedri
24Eric García
14M. Rashford
11Raphinha
10Lamine Yamal
7Ferran Torres
Osasuna
Confirmed XI
1Sergio Herrera(G)
23Abel Bretones
5Jorge Herrando
24Catena
22F. Boyomo
41Íñigo Arguibide
10Aimar Oroz
7Moncayola
6Lucas Torró
21Víctor Muñoz
17A. Budimir
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Barcelona
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Osasuna
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Barcelona+0.3 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Osasuna-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Barcelona · Home
3.00points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-0-0
- Scored
- 3.25
- Conceded
- 0.63
Osasuna · Away
0.25points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-6
- Scored
- 0.38
- Conceded
- 1.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 13 this season
| Opponent | Barcelona | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| Real Betis | W 5–3 A | L 0–2 A |
| Atletico Madrid | W 3–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Celta Vigo | W 4–2 A | L 2–3 H |
| Elche | W 3–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Real Madrid | L 1–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| Sevilla | L 1–4 A | L 0–1 A |
| Real Sociedad | W 2–1 H | L 1–3 H |
| Oviedo | W 3–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| Getafe | W 3–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Valencia | W 6–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | D 1–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Levante | W 3–2 A | W 2–0 H |
| Mallorca | W 3–0 A | D 2–2 A |
| Points | 31 of 39 · 2.38 per game | 15 of 39 · 1.15 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
8 Barcelona wins1 draws1 Osasuna wins
Goals per game2.30 – 0.80
Over 2.570%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets60% · 0%
- 27 Mar 2025Barcelona3–0Osasuna
- 28 Sep 2024Osasuna4–2Barcelona
- 31 Jan 2024Barcelona1–0Osasuna
- 3 Sep 2023Osasuna1–2Barcelona
- 2 May 2023Barcelona1–0Osasuna
- 8 Nov 2022Osasuna1–2Barcelona
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Barcelona | Osasuna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.94 | 0.93 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.25 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 4.19 | 2.13 | 3.16 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 94% | 33% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 63% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 40% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 27% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 40% | |
| Games | 16 | 15 |
| Barcelona | Osasuna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.80 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 4.40 | 2.40 | 3.16 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 40% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 70% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 50% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Barcelona | Osasuna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.20 | 3.46 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.93 | 3.69 | |
| Match total | 11.13 | 7.15 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 87% 13/15 | 31% 4/13 | |
| Over 9.5 | 53% 8/15 | 15% 2/13 | |
| Over 10.5 | 53% 8/15 | 0% 0/13 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.81 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.31 | 4.53 | 4.38 |
| Over 3.5 | 56% 9/16 | 80% 12/15 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 8/16 | 60% 9/15 | |
| Barcelona | Osasuna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.29 | 3.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.29 | 3.60 | |
| Match total | 10.58 | 7.20 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 86% 6/7 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 3/7 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 3/7 | 0% 0/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 4.70 | 4.38 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Adrian Cordero Vega Spain · 11 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.00league 4.12
Red cards0.27league 0.28
Cards 5+45%league 46%
Fouls26.6league 24.7
Penalties0.45league 0.33
Home wins73%league 48%
BarcelonaNo previous matches with this referee.
Osasuna3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- D25 Sep 25H · Elche1–12
- L19 Aug 25A · Real Madrid0–11
- W24 Apr 25H · Sevilla1–04
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Barcelona16 games · scored 47 · conceded 20
10
5
0-15
4
3
16-30
10
7
31-45
8
46-60
6
1
61-75
9
4
76-90
Osasuna14 games · scored 14 · conceded 18
4
0-15
3
16-30
6
1
31-45
5
46-60
5
61-75
4
4
76-90
Barcelona10 games · scored 28 · conceded 17
8
4
0-15
2
5
16-30
6
3
31-45
4
1
46-60
4
2
61-75
4
2
76-90
Osasuna9 games · scored 10 · conceded 14
2
0-15
3
16-30
5
1
31-45
3
46-60
4
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
