Barcelona
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Barcelona were clear favourites.
Barcelona were the stronger side on L90 Strength (90 vs 69). Barcelona usually keep the ball (69% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Barcelona had 6 days of rest, Villarreal 5.8 and had to travel 250 km.
Away travel250 kmRest days6 · 5.8Matches / 14d2 · 3
Barcelona71%
Draw18%
Villarreal12%
Barcelona65%
Draw21%
Villarreal14%
Barcelona70%
Draw18%
Villarreal12%
Barcelona63%
Draw21%
Villarreal16%
Barcelona69%
Draw18%
Villarreal12%
Over 2.5 64%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Barcelona)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainIsidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos
- Cards per match 5.0
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 35
Team strength
Barcelona
Villarreal
90
L90 StrengthIn forecast
69
93
Current StrengthIn forecast
65
97
AttackIn forecast
76
92
DefenceIn forecast
73
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisVillarreal
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BarcelonaVillarreal
2.68
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.88
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.08
2.53
xGVia Att/Def
1.50
1.26
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.08
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.38
100%
Scored inContext
84%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
32%
20.36
ShotsContext
11.84
7.24
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.44
36%
On target shareContext
38%
12.92
Shots in the boxContext
8.08
64%
Box shareContext
68%
13%
ConversionContext
16%
2.48
OffsidesContext
2.94
9.20
Shots allowedContext
11.84
3.92
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.58
2.45
BlocksContext
4.13
2.84
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.48
72%
Save rateContext
68%
69%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
643
PassesContext
398
577
Accurate passesContext
329
90%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.11
Team ratingContext
6.89
9.72
FoulsContext
12.24
11.72
Fouls sufferedContext
11.72
1.28
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.08
2.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
2.89
xGVia Att/Def
1.09
1.14
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.09
-0.29
Goals minus xGContext
+0.31
100%
Scored inContext
70%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
21.90
ShotsContext
10.00
7.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
36%
On target shareContext
38%
14.60
Shots in the boxContext
6.70
67%
Box shareContext
64%
12%
ConversionContext
14%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.71
9.60
Shots allowedContext
12.30
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
2.30
BlocksContext
3.30
3.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
80%
Save rateContext
63%
71%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
657
PassesContext
386
590
Accurate passesContext
314
90%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.14
Team ratingContext
6.73
9.40
FoulsContext
13.00
11.10
Fouls sufferedContext
11.80
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Barcelona
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km172 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Villarreal
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel250 km737 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Barcelona |
Villarreal |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 15 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6La Liga 2025-2026, 22 Feb | 5.8La Liga 2025-2026, 22 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 250 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 172 km | 737 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 3 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.2 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Barcelona
Confirmed XI
13Joan García(G)
3Alejandro Balde
24Eric García
5Pau Cubarsí
23J. Koundé
20Dani Olmo
22Marc Bernal
16Fermín López
11Raphinha
7Ferran Torres
10Lamine Yamal
Villarreal
Confirmed XI
1Luíz Júnior(G)
23Sergi Cardona
12Renato Veiga
6Pau Navarro
15S. Mouriño
20Alberto Moleiro
18P. Gueye
14Santi Comesaña
19N. Pépé
22Ayoze Pérez
9G. Mikautadze
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Barcelona
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Villarreal
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Barcelona+0.7 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Villarreal-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Barcelona · Home
3.00points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 12-0-0
- Scored
- 3.08
- Conceded
- 0.42
Villarreal · Away
1.67points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-2-4
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Barcelona | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| Levante | W 3–0 HW 3–2 A | W 1–0 A |
| Girona | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H | W 5–0 H |
| Mallorca | W 3–0 HW 3–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| Elche | W 3–1 AW 3–1 H | W 3–1 A |
| Oviedo | W 3–0 HW 3–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Real Sociedad | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H | W 3–2 A |
| Espanyol | W 2–0 A | W 4–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Osasuna | W 2–0 H | D 2–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Real Betis | W 5–3 A | L 0–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Atletico Madrid | W 3–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Alaves | W 3–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| Athletic Club | W 4–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Celta Vigo | W 4–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Real Madrid | L 1–2 A | L 0–2 HL 1–3 A |
| Sevilla | L 1–4 A | W 2–1 A |
| Getafe | W 3–0 H | L 1–2 AW 2–0 H |
| Valencia | W 6–0 H | W 2–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | D 1–1 A | W 4–0 H |
| Points | 58 of 72 · 2.42 per game | 51 of 72 · 2.13 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
7 Barcelona wins0 draws3 Villarreal wins
Goals per game2.50 – 1.60
Over 2.570%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets30% · 10%
- 21 Dec 2025Villarreal0–2Barcelona
- 18 May 2025Barcelona2–3Villarreal
- 22 Sep 2024Villarreal1–5Barcelona
- 27 Jan 2024Barcelona3–5Villarreal
- 27 Aug 2023Villarreal3–4Barcelona
- 12 Feb 2023Villarreal0–1Barcelona
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Barcelona | Villarreal | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.68 | 1.88 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.08 | |
| Match goals | 3.68 | 2.96 | 3.28 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 92% | |
| Over 2.5 | 84% | 56% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 44% | 36% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 52% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 32% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 16% | |
| Games | 25 | 25 |
| Barcelona | Villarreal | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 3.00 | 3.28 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 60% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Barcelona | Villarreal | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.46 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.42 | 4.59 | |
| Match total | 11.88 | 8.59 | 9.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 92% 22/24 | 41% 9/22 | |
| Over 9.5 | 71% 17/24 | 36% 8/22 | |
| Over 10.5 | 63% 15/24 | 32% 7/22 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.36 | 2.52 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.48 | 2.12 | |
| Match total | 3.84 | 4.64 | 4.45 |
| Over 3.5 | 44% 11/25 | 68% 17/25 | |
| Over 4.5 | 36% 9/25 | 52% 13/25 | |
| Barcelona | Villarreal | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 8.70 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.70 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 12.40 | 8.00 | 9.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 10/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 90% 9/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 4.80 | 4.45 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos Spain · 35 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.69league 4.19
Red cards0.31league 0.27
Cards 5+63%league 46%
Fouls26.8league 24.6
Penalties0.29league 0.38
Home wins31%league 47%
Barcelona1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L10 Dec 23H · Girona2–41
Villarreal5 with this referee
Record4-1-0
Cards · opp.2.8 · 3.2
Pens for · against0 · 2
- W3 Jan 26A · Elche3–13
- W20 Sep 25H · Osasuna2–12
- W10 May 25A · Girona1–03
- W11 May 24H · Sevilla3–23
- D3 Dec 23A · Sevilla1–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Barcelona25 games · scored 67 · conceded 25
13
5
0-15
5
4
16-30
12
8
31-45
11
46-60
12
3
61-75
14
5
76-90
Villarreal25 games · scored 47 · conceded 27
4
3
0-15
7
3
16-30
10
3
31-45
11
6
46-60
8
4
61-75
7
8
76-90
Barcelona10 games · scored 26 · conceded 8
3
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
5
46-60
8
2
61-75
5
1
76-90
Villarreal10 games · scored 14 · conceded 16
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
4
3
31-45
6
4
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
