Bayer Leverkusen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Bayer Leverkusen were clear favourites.
Bayer Leverkusen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (82 vs 40). Bayer Leverkusen had ? days of rest, 1899 Hoffenheim ? and had to travel 239 km.
Away travel239 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0
Bayer Leverkusen74%
Draw16%
1899 Hoffenheim10%
Bayer Leverkusen72%
Draw18%
1899 Hoffenheim10%
Bayer Leverkusen74%
Draw16%
1899 Hoffenheim10%
Bayer Leverkusen67%
Draw19%
1899 Hoffenheim14%
Bayer Leverkusen72%
Draw18%
1899 Hoffenheim10%
Over 2.5 67%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Leverkusen)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyDaniel Siebert
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 98
Team strength
Bayer Leverkusen
1899 Hoffenheim
82
L90 StrengthIn forecast
40
78
Current StrengthIn forecast
47
87
AttackIn forecast
46
79
DefenceIn forecast
43
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Form indexContext
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In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysis1899 Hoffenheim
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Bayer Leverkusen1899 Hoffenheim
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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Goals concededVia Att/Def
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xGVia Att/Def
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xG allowedVia Att/Def
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Goals minus xGContext
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Scored inContext
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Clean sheetsContext
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ShotsContext
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Shots on targetVia Att/Def
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On target shareContext
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Shots in the boxContext
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Box shareContext
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ConversionContext
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OffsidesContext
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Shots allowedContext
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On target allowedVia Att/Def
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BlocksContext
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Goalkeeper savesContext
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Save rateContext
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PossessionIn forecast
—
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PassesContext
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Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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Yellow cardsContext
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Red cardsContext
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1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.20
1.18
xGVia Att/Def
1.22
1.36
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
+0.52
Goals minus xGContext
+0.28
80%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.60
ShotsContext
12.70
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.78
35%
On target shareContext
34%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.20
57%
Box shareContext
64%
15%
ConversionContext
12%
2.86
OffsidesContext
3.33
10.40
Shots allowedContext
13.80
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
2.70
BlocksContext
3.60
2.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.22
66%
Save rateContext
63%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
538
PassesContext
410
461
Accurate passesContext
327
86%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.90
12.10
FoulsContext
11.70
11.90
Fouls sufferedContext
9.50
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Bayer Leverkusen
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
1899 Hoffenheim
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel239 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Bayer Leverkusen |
1899 Hoffenheim |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | — | — |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 239 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Bayer Leverkusen
Confirmed XI
1M. Flekken(G)
3P. Hincapié
12E. Tapsoba
4J. Quansah
20Álex Grimaldo
8R. Andrich
24Aleix García
13Arthur
23N. Tella
30I. Maza
14P. Schick
1899 Hoffenheim
Confirmed XI
1O. Baumann(G)
13Bernardo
28K. Machida
2R. Hranáč
34V. Coufal
29B. Toure
18W. Burger
7L. Avdullahu
27A. Kramarić
11F. Asllani
19T. Lemperle
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Bayer Leverkusen
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
1899 Hoffenheim
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Bayer Leverkusen+0.0 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- 1899 Hoffenheim+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Bayer Leverkusen · Home
No home games yet this season.
1899 Hoffenheim · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
6 Bayer Leverkusen wins1 draws1 1899 Hoffenheim wins
Goals per game2.63 – 1.63
Over 2.5100%
Both scored88%
Clean sheets0% · 13%
- 2 Feb 2025Bayer Leverkusen3–11899 Hoffenheim
- 14 Sep 20241899 Hoffenheim1–4Bayer Leverkusen
- 30 Mar 2024Bayer Leverkusen2–11899 Hoffenheim
- 4 Nov 20231899 Hoffenheim2–3Bayer Leverkusen
- 11 Feb 20231899 Hoffenheim1–3Bayer Leverkusen
- 20 Aug 2022Bayer Leverkusen0–31899 Hoffenheim
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Bayer Leverkusen | 1899 Hoffenheim | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 3.46 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 54% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 1899 Hoffenheim | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 3.46 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 54% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Bayer Leverkusen | 1899 Hoffenheim | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 10.00 |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | — | — | |
| Opponent cards | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 5.00 |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Over 4.5 | — | — | |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 1899 Hoffenheim | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 3.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.25 | 5.20 | |
| Match total | 9.75 | 8.90 | 10.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 5/8 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.10 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Daniel Siebert Germany · 98 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.54league 5.00
Red cards0.21league 0.00
Cards 5+52%league 100%
Fouls23.6league 26.0
Penalties0.24league 0.00
Home wins41%league 100%
Bayer Leverkusen14 with this referee
Record4-8-2
Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.4
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- D4 May 25A · SC Freiburg2–22
- W16 Mar 25A · VfB Stuttgart4–32
- D15 Feb 25H · Bayern München0–02
- D1 Nov 24H · VfB Stuttgart0–03
- D21 Apr 24A · Borussia Dortmund1–13
1899 Hoffenheim6 with this referee
Record2-0-4
Cards · opp.3.3 · 2.2
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L1 Dec 24A · FSV Mainz 050–23
- W16 Sep 23A · 1.FC Köln3–14
- L2 Sep 22A · Borussia Dortmund0–14
- L6 Aug 22A · Borussia Mönchengladbach1–34
- L2 Apr 22H · VfL Bochum1–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Bayer Leverkusen1899 HoffenheimBayer Leverkusen10 games · scored 17 · conceded 15
1
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
4
31-45
4
3
46-60
1
4
61-75
7
2
76-90
1899 Hoffenheim10 games · scored 15 · conceded 22
2
2
0-15
3
16-30
6
4
31-45
1
4
46-60
3
3
61-75
3
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
